Even by New York City standards, the past decade has been a volatile one for Manhattan real estate, from the aftermath of the subprime mortgage crisis, through a deadly pandemic, and into a period of excessive rents and interest rates. It’s tempting to step back and think that buying a home in Manhattan has never been harder.
But if you look through the surface, apartment prices have remained relatively stable over these past 10 years, said Jonathan Miller, the author of a report issued by Douglas Elliman analyzing apartment sales in Manhattan from 2015 through 2024. The volatility, in large part, comes down to the difference between condos and co-ops.
While the median sale prices for condos and co-ops have risen at comparable levels over the decade (about 9 or 10 percent), the two markets have actually behaved very differently. When you look at the average prices for each — which, unlike medians, are heavily skewed by extremely expensive units added to the market — Manhattan condos were up 15.2 percent (to around $2.84 million), while co-ops went down 1.3 percent (to $1.33 million).
Co-op units, often in older buildings with fewer amenities, are a more common entry point for first-time buyers because they’re generally less expensive. Meanwhile, condos are luring wealthier buyers with newer construction in taller buildings with higher-end features and added premiums, Mr. Miller said. They also tend to have more bedrooms. Even a little more space in New York City can be an expensive luxury.
“The high-end co-op market has been crushed by the condo market because the new product coming in is different,” he said. “New development takes the form of condominium almost exclusively. New condos tend to be larger than existing co-ops, and higher floor level means better views, which means higher sale prices.”
Co-ops at the higher end are making up a smaller portion of the market, Mr. Miller said, meaning they’re competing on an increasingly disparate playing field. For example, the median sale price for a co-op studio in Manhattan jumped from $390,000 to $430,000 over the decade, while the median for a co-op with at least four bedrooms fell from $5.05 million to $3.7 million.
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