Nine of the 10 states with the strongest net migration numbers in 2023 voted for President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race, according to a new report.
Why It Matters
Democrats are facing a looming crisis in the 2030 congressional reapportionment if current trends hold through the end of the decade, as Republican-leaning states like Florida and Texas are the two growing at the fastest rate. Meanwhile, Americans are moving out of the largest blue states like California and New York.
This means Democratic-leaning states are poised to lose seats in Congress next decade, giving Republicans an advantage in presidential races as the Electoral College number for each state is made up of its entire congressional delegation.
What To Know
Texas and Florida are joined by North Carolina, South Carolina, Arizona, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee and Oklahoma in having the strongest net migration numbers in 2023, according to the report from StorageCafe.
Of those, only Colorado voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential race and is viewed as a solidly Democratic state.
Arizona and Georgia are purple states that backed former President Joe Biden in 2020 but flipped back to President Donald Trump in November.
On the other hand, California and New York were followed by Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, Michigan and New Hampshire as the states that lost the most residents in 2023.
Most of those states voted for Harris. Louisiana is a solidly Republican state, while Michigan and Pennsylvania are swing states that backed Trump in November.
Politics, however, are not viewed as a key driver for internal migration patterns. Instead, issues like cost of living and housing affordability tend to shape migration trends, according to the report.
The report highlighted that Colorado is a “mecca for remote workers, coming in third for attracting the largest number of people working from home in 2023” but is one of the most expensive states to buy a home.
“About 27% of employees relocating to Colorado are remote workers, and a significant 43% of them have higher education. For many of those, as well as other high-income earners, Colorado’s quality of life and signature blend of natural attractions and outdoorsy lifestyles often outweigh affordability,” the report reads.
Many of the states people are leaving, such as California and New York, are among the most expensive places to buy a home. California has been in a years-long housing crisis because of high costs, low inventory and relatively few new houses being built, locking out many potential homeowners.
What People Are Saying
Doug Ressler, a business intelligence manager at Yardi Matrix, in the report: “Skyrocketing housing costs in traditionally expensive markets are pushing families to seek more affordable and spacious alternatives. The Sun Belt continues to attract a significant share of movers, cementing its status as a top migration destination, despite some fluctuations in recent years.”
William Frey, a demographer and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told Newsweek in December: “When it comes to deciding when to move, it’s sort of like the last election. It’s a pocketbook thing. When it’s too expensive to live somewhere, you’re going to look where there are job opportunities.”
What Happens Next
Whether these trends continue is unknown, as economic and housing factors could change over the next few years. If trends hold, the impact could be felt in next decade’s elections.
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