Officials in Ukraine and the Trump administration say they are close to a deal that would give the United States revenues from Ukraine’s minerals and other natural resources, including titanium, lithium, oil, natural gas and rare earth elements.
A draft agreement seen by The New York Times described the creation of an U.S.-controlled fund that receives revenue from Ukraine’s natural resources. It did not offer any security guarantees.
What are Ukraine’s natural resources?
Ukraine, the largest country wholly within Europe, controls more than 100 major deposits of critical minerals, according to a study by the Kyiv School of Economics, along with modest oil and natural gas reserves.
Ukraine has deposits of 20 of the 50 minerals the U.S. Geological Survey lists as critical for America’s economic development and defense, including:
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Titanium is used in construction, airplanes, orthopedic implants and as an additive in paint and cosmetics, including sunscreen, among many other things. Titanium mines in central Ukraine account for about 6 percent of global production, according to Ukrainian media.
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Lithium is a crucial element in batteries, including those in electric vehicles, and in other industrial products, including some medications. Ukraine has a third of Europe’s total reserves, although some sites are in war-contested areas. Before the war with Russia, Ukrainian officials suggested to Elon Musk that he invest in Ukrainian lithium mines.
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Uranium is used in nuclear power plants and nuclear weapons. Ukraine has the largest uranium reserves in Europe.
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Rare earths are a group of more than a dozen metals, much less abundant than Titanium or Lithium, that are used in many high-tech sectors, including green energy, electronics and aerospace. Ukraine has substantial reserves that are mostly untapped, and it is unclear how expensive they would be to extract.
What does Trump want?
Mr. Trump says he wants revenue from the minerals as repayment for military aid that the United States has provided to Ukraine.
Ukraine could help break a Chinese near-monopoly on some rare earth metals needed for mobile phones, other electronics and possibly future technologies.
“It’s clear that Europe, Japan, and the United States are all dependent on China for rare earth elements,” Serhiy Vyzhva, director of the Institute of Geology at Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, said in an interview.
Other ores, minerals and energy are less strategic but still valuable. Ukrainian oil and natural gas reserves could be a source of revenue for the U.S.-controlled fund envisioned in the agreement.
What does Ukraine want?
Ukraine wants Mr. Trump’s backing in the war, and in setting the terms of an eventual peace with Russia. How the minerals would actually be extracted has not been extensively discussed with the Trump administration, but developing those resources has been long-term goal for Ukraine.
“Our geological base is similar to that of Canada and South Africa, both of which have extensive mineral resources,” said Mr. Vyzhva, the Ukrainian geologist.
The country’s most productive mines produce iron, titanium, manganese and zirconium, he said, adding that Ukraine is “highly interested” in investment, but its “main focus remains on ending the war.”
What are the obstacles to a deal?
When Mr. Zelensky last fall introduced the idea of trading natural resources for military support, he told the Ukrainian Parliament the country’s mineral wealth was worth “trillions” of dollars. That bonanza would be available to “either Russia and its allies or Ukraine and the democratic world” depending on who won the war, he said.
The resources are valuable but experts say that Mr. Zelensky’s estimate is exaggerated. Cumbersome bureaucracy and corruption has limited investment. Under a Soviet-era policy, for example, information about some reserves are classified as state secrets, preventing foreigners from even studying them, a Ukrainian business newspaper reported.
The Ukrainian government’s revenues last year from natural resources royalties were $1.1 billion, far less than the hundreds of billions of dollars Mr. Trump has said he is seeking from the agreement.
The International Energy Agency reported in 2023 that lithium is now mined in sufficient quantities around the world to meet global demand.
One lithium deposit and several rare earth deposits are in Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russia. Some offshore natural gas deposits in the Black Sea are also inaccessible while fighting continues; some drilling platforms have become contested sea bases for both Russian and Ukrainian marines.
American and other international oil companies have also tried to do business in Ukraine before.
Before Russia’s military incursion in eastern Ukraine in 2014, Ukraine cut deals with Chevron and Shell to explore for shale gas, which the country possesses in abundance — though it has not been economically viable to extract. Shell’s project ended with the Russian incursion, which occupied areas near the site of its project in the Donetsk region. Chevron’s project was canceled because of geological challenges.
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