While the votes are still being tallied, analysts are already speculate about the future ruling coalition in Germany.
To form a government, a majority of at least 316 seats out of the 630 seats in the Bundestag is needed.
A coalition between CDU and AfD would have been possible numerically, as both parties easily pass this threshhold, adding up to 358. But according to conservative leader Friedrich Merz, this is out of the question.
That leaves Olaf Scholz’s SPD as a possible partner, which together with CDU scrape by with 328 seats. A bigger majority could be formed if CDU were to add the Greens to the mix, reaching 416. But the CDU’s junior partner CSU has repeatedly ruled out governing with the Greens.
Theoretically, the CDU could also lead a 3-party coalition that includes SPD and the Left party, but this is highly unlikely given very deep ideological differences between the conservatives and the far-left faction.
Prior to the election, some politicians discussed the possibility of a leftwing coalition of SPD, Greens and the Left, but tallied together, they cannot reach the 316 threshhold.
Ultimately, no coalition is possible without CDU and given CDU’s bad relationship with Greens and the Left, that only leaves SPD as a possible coalition partner. The question remains if SPD will join in with CDU again, as they did with Angela Merkel, in a so-called “Grand Coalition.”
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