In the three years since , nothing has changed as much economically for Moscow
In 2021, almost 50% of Russia’s exports went to European countries, including and Ukraine, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC). The bulk of those exports were energy products, primarily crude .
Yet, by the end of 2023, less than two years after the invasion began on February 24, 2022, the picture was completely transformed.
The OEC’s recently published figures for 2023 show China and India out in front as Russia’s two main export markets, accounting for 32.7% and 16.8% respectively — half the total. In 2021, China accounted for 14.6% of Russian exports whereas India accounted for just 1.56%.
The two countries have swept up the export market share previously taken by European countries. The 2023 figures show European nations accounting for barely 15% of Russian exports, a huge drop from the almost 50% of two years earlier.
While the OEC has not yet published figures for 2024, data from other sources, such as the Russian foreign trade tracker published by the Bruegel economic think tank in Brussels, suggests export destinations remain largely in line with the 2023 figures.
The available trade data relies on official statistics only, If it were possible to include those mostly aging ships that sail without the industry’s standard Western insurance, it would likely show that China and India import even more from Russia. According to the Kyiv School of Economics, at least 70% of Russia’s total seaborne crude oil exports are via the shadow fleet, with India, China and Turkey accounting for up to 95% of the purchases.
From west to east
Russia’s changed export picture since 2022 boils down to two factors: the dramatically pivoting away from buying Russian oil and gas, and
EU imports of Russian crude oil have dropped by 90% since the invasion while it has significantly reduced the amount of Russian gas it imports, from 40% of its supply in 2021 to 15% in 2024.
“There was a major diversion of trade away from the West to these countries,” Zsolt Darvas, one of the researchers at Bruegel who works on their Russian trade tracker, told DW.
“Nations that did not impose sanctions on Russia, most notably China and also Turkey, Kazakhstan and some other countries, increased their trade with Russia quite substantially.”
According to the OEC figures, Russian exports to Turkey rose from 4.18% (2021) to 7.86% (2023), while Kazakhstan and Hungary — both friendly to the Kremlin — have seen modest increases since 2021.
‘Russia is now China’s vassal’
Arguably the most significant overall change for Russia has been the
“Russia is now China’s vassal,” Elina Ribakova, an economist with the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C., told DW.
China’s trade importance for Russia was now so unbalanced, she said, that it leaves Beijing with huge leverage over Moscow. “China is the biggest trade partner by far whereas Russia is a very small share of where China exports,” she added. “For Russia, it’s overwhelmingly now the largest trade partner.”
Darvas thinks Moscow is increasingly reliant on China to supply various components, hi-tech goods and manufacturing products in the face of Western sanctions. “Russia is a big country but it doesn’t have the capacity to be self-sufficient,” he said. “So, it must obtain these products from somewhere else. And increasingly, that’s China.”
Ribakova argues that as well as China selling its own products to Russia, it helps facilitate the delivery of Western-made components to the country. So-called dual-use items that can be used for both civilian and military purposes are especially common.
According to OEC data, China provided Russia with a massive 53% of its imports in 2023, way up from 25.7% in 2021. Turkey, Kazakhstan and the United Arab Emirates also export more to Russia compared to 2021. India’s export share to Russia remains roughly at the same level as two years ago.
The huge diversion to Chinese-made goods largely replaces European exports. Back in 2021, EU countries plus the UK accounted for over a third of Russian imports. By the end of 2023, the figure had fallen to less than 20%.
As for what Beijing supplies, the OEC data says 38% of the $110 billion (€104.8 billion) worth of goods sold to Moscow in 2023 were a wide range of machine products and components. Around 21% was related to transportation, such as cars, trucks, tractors and auto parts. China also sold billions of dollars’ worth of metals, plastics and rubbers, chemical products and textiles.
A new world
While Russia’s trade has been transformed, the experts say it is not necessarily better off.
Darvas thinks Russia is “surviving” but “not getting the same quality of products as before,” something that will have an impact on the economy.
Elina Ribakova argues that things haven’t developed “as bad for Russia economically as many in Moscow had feared” and that its changed trade partners
“For Putin, I think it is a comfortable trajectory because they want this multi-polar world where they are allied with China and others. And they are probably happy to take the cost to the economy for that,” said Ribakova.
She cautions, however, that the dependence on Beijing leaves Russia vulnerable. “China is effectively a gatekeeper for trade for Russia, while for China, Russia is like a partner in crime, but not an indispensable one.”
Edited by: Uwe Hessler
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