Some have suggested that US President Donald Trump’s plan for the reconstruction of Gaza — the coastal Palestinian enclave, expels the inhabitants and turns it into a “Riviera of the Middle East” — is just an .
Others are concerned that Trump means every word. Israeli politicians and military leaders have already spoken about an agency for “voluntary emigration” of Palestinians out of Gaza.
According to the United Nations, around two-thirds of Gaza’s buildings have been destroyed, and the territory’s Health Ministry says more than 48,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israel’s military campaign. for an attack by the Gaza-based militant group Hamas that resulted in around 1,200 deaths.
With a fragile ceasefire currently in effect in Gaza, reconstruction of the enclave is being discussed.
Arab nations to the Trump plan for Gaza. Jordan and Egypt, in particular, are concerned. The US president has suggested they could take in the around two million displaced Palestinians from Gaza, a move that would amount to an existential political and economic crisis for both countries.
Egypt and other Arab states to discuss Gaza’s future
Egypt, which was crucial to negotiating the Gaza ceasefire, has been leading a charge to come up with an alternative. A meeting has been arranged in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for the end of this week. Various ideas will be discussed by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, , and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). , either over the past year or earlier. Later, an extraordinary Arab League summit is planned for March 4 in Cairo, where more countries are expected to discuss, then support, a draft plan for Gaza.
According to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the US is open to it.
“If the Arab countries have a better plan, then that’s great,” he said during a radio interview last week.
is likely to play an integral role in the alternative proposal as the Saudis are closer to the Trump administration and also have major financial ties to Trump family ventures. There have also been reports that the Arab plan will be called “the Trump plan” to ensure the US President’s buy-in.
What’s in the plan Arab nations are discussing?
The plan will likely have three phases and take up to five years to complete.
The first phase involves immediate aid for displaced Palestinians. A number of “safe zones” would be established inside Gaza, equipped with mobile housing and other temporary shelters and ready access to aid and essential services.
Apparently 40 companies, many based in Egypt but some international, would be involved with reconstruction while Palestinians themselves will provide the labor.
A technocratic, Palestinian committee will be selected to manage the enclave. Who exactly would be on the committee remains unclear but could include representatives of the Palestinian Authority, or PA, which runs things in the , as well as leaders from local tribal groups or community mayors.
It is highly unlikely that the committee would include representatives of the Hamas group, which has been in charge of Gaza for the past two decades. Hamas, which is considered a terrorist organization by the US, the EU and others, has said it is willing to cede power but apparently also wants to help choose committee members.
What about security?
There are also arguments that neither Hamas nor the PA, which is often criticized for corruption and mismanagement, should be involved in the new Gaza administration. So the administrators may also be purely technocratic with the 10 to 15 committee members having no political affiliation.
Security in Gaza could be provided by PA police or possibly by a multinational group, with potential support from Arab or even Western forces. The UAE has suggested creating a “temporary international mission” for Gaza’s security.
Last year, Israeli Prime Minister suggested that while a technocratic committee could govern in Gaza, Israel should still be responsible for security there. But Palestinians protest this would only amount to ongoing Israeli occupation.
Who will pay for reconstruction?
An “Interim Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment” published by the World Bank this month indicates that $53.2 billion (€50.9 billion) will be needed for Gaza’s reconstruction over a decade, with $20 billion of that required over the next three years.
Arab nations may well end up paying part of that because their willingness to fund reconstruction is seen as one of the factors that will make an Arab plan more palatable to the Trump administration. But a Gulf-led fund, with financing from oil-rich nations like Qatar and the UAE, will also be dependent on a lasting ceasefire in and some kind of path towards a permanent end to violence, like a two-state solution. Otherwise, Gulf states have argued, there’s no point in funding reconstruction if the area will only be bombed by Israel again.
Again, to ensure US buy-in, there is speculation that the project may even be called “the Trump Fund for Reconstruction.”
Egypt is apparently keen to organize an international donor conference, during which Western nations will also be asked to contribute. Israel is unlikely to pay for Gaza’s reconstruction.
Potential roadblocks
Reconstruction obviously requires that the current, fragile ceasefire continues. The second phase of the ceasefire, in which the remaining hostages taken in Israel on October 7, 2023, could be released, is supposed to start in early March. But it’s still unclear how the right-wing Israeli government will approach that and how Hamas will react.
Given that previous short- and medium-term proposals for Gaza have always also been predicated on a long-term outcome, the fact that Israel rejects any idea for a two-state solution will be problematic. Israel’s rejections of eventual come even as the international community still insists on a two-state solution and funding for any Arab reconstruction plan may well be conditioned upon it.
Edited by: Davis VanOpdorp
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