Reconstruction efforts in Gaza will require more than $50bn after 15 months of Israel’s devastating war, according to a new assessment by the United Nations, the European Union and the World Bank.
The figures come as Arab countries continue to scramble to find a viable recovery plan as an alternative to the mass displacement of the Palestinian enclave’s 2 million residents proposed by United States President Donald Trump.
The Gaza & West Bank Interim Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (IRDNA), published on Tuesday, calculated that Israel’s war on Gaza caused $49bn in destruction between October 8, 2023 and October 8, 2024.
Researchers concluded that $53.2bn is now needed for the recovery and reconstruction of the Palestinian territory over the next 10 years, with about $20bn of the full amount required in the first three years alone.
“Funding will require a broad coalition of donors, diverse financing instruments, private sector resources, and significant improvements in the delivery of reconstruction materials to Gaza in the post-conflict period,” the joint report states.
More than half the total estimated cost of rebuilding, or $29.9bn, is needed for damaged buildings and other key infrastructure, while funds to replenish Gaza’s destroyed residential housing stock form the bulk of that figure – $15.2bn.
Housing suffered the most during Israel’s 15-month-long attack on the territory, with the report writers estimating that it accounted for 53 percent of the total destruction wrought by Israeli forces in Gaza, amounting to more than 292,000 homes destroyed or damaged.
Another $19.1bn is required to make up for social and economic losses resulting from severe damage to Gaza’s health, education, commerce and industry sectors, the report estimates.
The researchers also state that 95 percent of Gaza’s hospitals are now non-functional, while the local economy has contracted by 83 percent.
The IRDNA is a follow-up to the Interim Damage Assessment (IDA) published by the UN, EU and World Bank in April 2024, which estimated about $18.5bn in damages after just four months of Israel’s war.
Years of clearing unexploded ordnance and removing millions of tonnes of rubble also lie ahead as part of the reconstruction efforts.
An uncertain future
The report’s findings come amid a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, with the Israeli military accused of carrying out repeated violations of the truce since it came into effect on January 19.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also failed to rule out a return to war in the coastal enclave if Hamas does not continue to return all the captives it holds there.
The report’s authors therefore cautioned that conditions are not yet in place for large-scale recovery and reconstruction work to begin given the lack of clarity over Gaza’s future, not least how it will be governed.
“The speed, scale, and scope of recovery will be shaped by these conditions,” the report states.
Since returning to the White House in late January, Trump has said he would “take over” and “own” Gaza, which involves emptying the Strip of its inhabitants and transforming the territory into what Trump described as the “Riviera of the Middle East”.
As part of this plan, Trump has said he would permanently displace 2 million Palestinian people. He has pressured both Jordan and Egypt to take in those who are forced out of Gaza.
Netanyahu has expressed strong support for Trump’s proposal, and his government announced on Monday that it had formed a special directorate for the “voluntary departure” of Palestinians from the coastal enclave.
Egypt is leading the way on an alternative Arab-led reconstruction plan that would keep Gaza’s population in their homeland.
On Monday, Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs Badr Abdelatty said Cairo is “actively developing a comprehensive, multi-phase plan for Gaza’s early recovery and reconstruction”.
Crucially, Cairo says the plan would not require Gaza’s population to be displaced. Instead, “secure areas” would be established where Palestinians can live, while dozens of Egyptian and international construction firms remove and rehabilitate the Strip’s war-torn infrastructure.
That plan may see up to $20bn provided by Arab and Gulf states towards reconstruction efforts, the Reuters news agency reported on Tuesday, citing two anonymous Egyptian security sources with knowledge of the matter.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi will travel to the Saudi Arabian capital, Riyadh, on Thursday to discuss the plan before an Arab summit will be held in Cairo on March 4 to potentially finalise the proposal, Reuters said.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Israel was waiting to evaluate Egypt’s plan.
But he reiterated Israel’s long-held stance that any plan in which Hamas continued to have a political or military presence in Gaza would not be acceptable.
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