With his unapologetic conservatism, his vow to fix a “broken” nation, his “common sense” fight against elites and all things woke, his norm-shattering personal attacks against political rivals, his pugilistic use of demeaning nicknames and his open disdain of the news media, Pierre Poilievre, the front-runner to become Canada’s next leader, has become a darling of the American right.
Some of President Trump’s most prominent supporters have publicly showered Mr. Poilievre, the leader of the main opposition Conservative Party, with compliments — a remarkable feat given that Canadian opposition leaders tend to attract little attention in the United States, much less praise.
But when Elon Musk, the world’s richest man who is leading an aggressive campaign against the U.S. federal bureaucracy on behalf of Mr. Trump, recently endorsed Mr. Poilievre as Canada’s next leader, Mr. Poilievre found himself in an uncomfortable situation.
Asked at a news conference last month whether he accepted the endorsement, Mr. Poilievre said, “My three-year-old has just told me that he wants to go to Mars, so I guess then Mr. Musk would be the right guy to put him in touch with,” before adding that it would be great if Mr. Musk opened some Tesla factories in Canada.
Mr. Poilievre’s backing by people close to Mr. Trump was always a double-edged sword in Canada, where the U.S. president is popular among hardcore conservatives but not among mainstream voters.
But that support now risks becoming a liability as Canada confronts a once unimaginable threat: the president of the United States, Canada’s closest ally, repeatedly questioning Canada’s viability as a nation, threatening to annex it through economic force and denigrating its prime minister as a “governor.”
As patriotic feelings have surged in Canada, Mr. Poilievre’s lead has narrowed significantly in several polls. Until a month ago, Mr. Poilievre, 45, appeared to be a shoo-in to become Canada’s next leader after having built a double-digit lead in the polls by channeling national frustration and anger at the deeply unpopular prime minister, Justin Trudeau.
Mr. Trudeau is expected to step down next month as prime minister after his Liberal Party selects a successor, who will automatically become prime minister. A general election is then likely to be held a couple of months later.
“For Poilievre, the biggest challenge is that for the last two years the villain in his story was Justin Trudeau,” said David Coletto, the founder of Abacus Data, a polling firm. “But that villain is now leaving, and there’s a new, bigger, badder villain that is coming from outside the country — and that’s Donald Trump.”
“What Canadians are now trying to figure out is who’s the hero in that story, who’s going to save them and protect them against that threat,” Mr. Coletto added. “And the conclusion that more people are going to choose Pierre Poilievre is now up in the air.”
Mr. Poilievre has responded by toning down his attack-dog persona and by switching to a “Canada First” message that he emphasized at a large rally in Ottawa over the weekend.
A spokesman for Mr. Poilievre did not respond to requests for an interview.
Mr. Poilievre’s supporters said he was simply adjusting to external developments and that he remained true to his long-held core conservative principles.
Ginny Roth, a partner at Crestview Strategy and a former communications director for Mr. Poilievre, said that Canada First was “a turning away from a naïve, international liberalism that saw global elites put the interests of their own business and, frankly, coupled with left-wing causes, ahead of the interests of regular working people.”
Ms. Roth attributed Mr. Poilievre and the Conservatives’ dip in the polls to a blip enjoyed by the Liberals after Mr. Trudeau’s resignation announcement, as well as a temporary “rally-around-the-flag” reaction among voters to Mr. Trump’s imposition of tariffs and his annexation threats.
No matter how the polls evolve, Mr. Poilievre’s situation shows how Mr. Trump’s aggressive foreign policy has upended the domestic politics of a major ally, experts said.
“With the Trump administration in power again, wreaking havoc in so many ways, including trade with Canada, it puts Mr. Poilievre in a very difficult position,” said Jonathan Malloy, an expert on Canadian politics at Carleton University. “I think he’s going to have to differentiate himself from Mr. Trump, much more than he was planning to. His opponents, of course, will accuse him of being Trump-lite.”
A career politician, Mr. Poilievre has been known for his combativeness since being elected to Parliament in 2004 at the age of 25. But it is in the last few years that he has embraced the tactics and messages used by Mr. Trump and others, portraying himself as an outsider fighting against a corrupt political, business, academic and media establishment.
He won the leadership of the Conservatives in 2022, after championing more than any other politician the truckers who took over and paralyzed Ottawa, the capital, for weeks to protest anti-COVID mandates. In the past two years, he pummeled Mr. Trudeau and other politicians with a constant barrage of personal insults and attacks that is new to Canadian politics.
Mr. Poilievre has given rivals insulting nicknames, including “Trust Fund Trudeau” to Mr. Trudeau, the son of a former prime minister, and “Sellout Singh” to the leader of the National Democrats, a smaller left-leaning party. Like Mr. Trump, he often says that problems can be solved with “common sense” — a term used by populists to pit ordinary people against a supposedly misguided and corrupt elite, said Emily Laxer, an expert on populism at York University.
While Mr. Poilievre’s policies are based on traditional conservative ideas of small government, free market and lower taxes, his populist tactics are a break from the past in Canada, Ms. Laxer said.
“There is evidence of a kind of mimicking of Trump’s messaging and strategy,” Ms. Laxer said. “And certainly, they both have benefited from the polarization of their societies, politically, and they’ve contributed to that polarization.”
Mr. Poilievre’s campaign against what he perceives as woke and the news media, vowing to get rid of the public broadcaster, CBC, has further endeared him to Fox News, Joe Rogan, Mr. Musk and other high-profile supporters of Mr. Trump, who tend to dislike Mr. Trudeau.
Mr. Musk described as a “masterpiece” a video in which Mr. Poilievre, while eating an apple, spars with a reporter questioning him about his use of populism. Bill Ackman, the hedge fund billionaire, posted that Mr. Poilievre was “extremely impressive” and “should be Canada’s next leader,” adding, “Make Canada Great Again.” Mr. Musk responded with a 100 percent emoji.
Fred Delorey, a former national campaign manager for the Conservative Party, said that Mr. Poilievre had elicited that kind of reaction because of the power of his message.
“I’ve never seen a Canadian conservative leader resonate outside the country like Poilievre does,” said Mr. Delorey, now chair of Northstar Public Affairs. “His style is direct to the point, and I think people appreciate that.”
Mr. Delorey said that the American right’s favorable comments about Mr. Poilievre would not have an effect on Canadian voters. Mr. Poilievre, he said, should stay focused on his message, “on what matters. Who cares if someone likes him or doesn’t like him.”
But Mr. Coletto, the pollster, said that these endorsements and Mr. Poilievre’s attitude toward the American president will be factors in a general election that has abruptly shifted from being about Mr. Trudeau to being about Mr. Trump.
“There is a subset of Conservative supporters who actually like Donald Trump, even today, despite everything he’s done,” Mr. Coletto said. “But Poilievre’s got an equally large part of his base that doesn’t.”
And during the upcoming general election campaign, Mr. Poilievre’s rivals are likely to seize on the endorsements, Mr. Coletto said, adding, “It’s common in campaigns to remind voters of who likes who.”
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