The Elysee Palace became a crisis hub for Europe on Monday, with French President Emmanuel Macron as they scramble to avoid the future of their continent being written without them.
Still reeling from the blow of with little consultation or regard for allies’ concerns, Macron — in his self-appointed role as Europe’s convener in chief — seemed to be calling a team huddle to plot defense in every sense of the word.
But while Denmark’s prime minister Mette Frederiksen insisted the talks were never supposed to yield concrete results, the fact is that Monday’s meeting created more new questions than answers on what Europe will do next.
All this just as a decisive week in diplomacy for Ukraine kicks off.
Debate over future security guarantees
Most of the leaders who gathered in Paris reiterated past promises to keep up political, military and financial support to Kyiv — and
But the Paris leaders line-up, which included France, Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, Spain, the United Kingdom, Poland and Italy — as well as top EU and NATO officials — seemed less united on which security guarantees Europe could offer as part of a down-the-line deal in Ukraine.
Asked about deploying European peacekeeping troops to Ukraine in future, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he was “irritated” by the debate.
“I will say that quite frankly: People are talking about possible variants of outcomes over Ukraine’s heads, about the outcome of peace talks that have not taken place, about which Ukraine has not said yes and has not sat at the table,” he told reporters.
“This is therefore an inappropriate debate at the wrong time and on the wrong topic. We are not yet at a point of peace, but in the middle of a war brutally waged by Russia.”
That seemed to contrast with UK Prime Minister , who said he was ready to consider sending British troops to Ukraine in future.
Denmark’s Frederiksen, meanwhile, said her country was open to “many things” but that “many things” need to be clarified first. Meanwhile, Poland’s Tusk said there were no plans to put Polish peacekeeping boots on the ground.
Appearing to paper over cracks, an EU official summed up the mood at the meeting: “We are ready to provide security guarantees, with modalities to be examined with each party, depending on the level of Amercian support.”
Possible leverage amid US snubs?
Most states may wish keep talk of peacekeepers for a time when peace can be envisioned, but the US has already spelled out its plan.
Last week, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth instead arguing “capable European and non-European troops” could be deployed to back up a future ceasefire.
Crucially, he said such forces should not be protected by a US security guarantee.
That’s a big ask: It would mean committing armed forces from NATO nations without any recourse to
And despite some US assurances to draw on European “input” on Monday, Washington says it still plans to negotiate only with Moscow and Kyiv.
But Ulrike Franke, a researcher with the European Council on Foreign Relations, told DW Europe could use this to push for more influence.
“The leverage indeed is that the Europeans will be the ones asked to secure any kind of deal,” she said.
“That is how the Europeans will eventually have to get a seat at the table, because if they’re being asked to secure any kind of deal, they will need to be involved in it.”
Researcher Pierre Haroche told DW the conversation around peacekeepers will likely be a “progressive revolution,” with the “first movers — Britain and France” taking the lead.
Defense ramp-up
No NATO member — not even the US — spends more of its GDP on defense than Poland, and Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Monday that a “new phase” in Europe’s “friendship” with the US had shifted dynamics.
European countries have been beefing up military spends since February 2022, but the sense that Washington is no longer a reliable partner is
“There was agreement, unanimity, that an increase — a significant increase — in defense spending was something absolutely necessary,” Tusk told journalists in Paris.
Germany’s Olaf Scholz said he was in favor of easing European Union fiscal rules to facilitate bigger defense budgets, while an EU official said leaders were “prepared to raise the level” of their spends “in order to better share the burden with the United States.”
But that tees up future EU debates on how to finance the ramp-up, with questions on possible joint debt, and whether to buy arms from the US or align with French demands to stick to European purchases, still to be chewed over.
Macron on a mission
Macron’s picks for his Paris invite list included the EU’s biggest hitters in military and diplomatic terms, as well as former bloc member the UK.
But it’s a departure from the usual EU talks format, which tend to be convened centrally in Brussels.
Researcher Pierre Haroche said it wasn’t the first time Macron has gone it alone on foreign policy issues in Europe.
“It’s normal that it starts with an informal discussion, but it will also be a EU discussion,” Haroche explained.
EU foreign ministers are expected to meet next Monday in Brussels for bloc-wide coordination.
By then, they may be facing yet another lesson in what a difference a week can make in transatlantic politics when Donald Trump is at the helm.
The post Few answers to US-Russia dilemma after Paris crisis talks appeared first on Deutsche Welle.
