President Trump reportedly wants to visit China within his first 100 days in office. While the White House has not yet announced any details, planning for the trip may already be underway. The Chinese leadership under President Xi Jinping is unlikely to agree to a date until it is confident of a positive outcome, and an escalation of the current tariff battle could derail the meeting altogether.
Americans should welcome talks between Mr. Trump and his biggest rival. We should not expect, nor should American negotiators seek, a grand bargain that tries to address numerous unrelated economic and security issues. Instead, Mr. Trump and his negotiators should attempt to make progress on a discrete set of objectives that advance American interests. Whatever the outcome, this is not a Nixon-in-China moment. The geopolitical landscape is radically different from that of the early 1970s. Americans should look beyond the bluster to what Mr. Trump could really accomplish.
The timing is opportune for this kind of focused negotiation. While China is a formidable strategic competitor, it is not in a position of unquestioned strength. It faces significant economic challenges, including a volatile real estate market, mounting government debt, weak consumer spending, a rapidly aging population and a slowdown in growth. This should give Mr. Trump leverage, but not as much as some experts expect. Mr. Xi views China’s domestic problems as short-term irritants and considers the United States and the American-led world order to be in inexorable decline.
Still, there are things that he will seek to bring home from the negotiating table. Mr. Xi most likely wants to avoid any more tariffs on Chinese products, prevent the United States from repealing China’s permanent normal trade relations status and persuade Mr. Trump to ease restrictions on China’s access to advanced American technology. Beijing’s strategy appears to be to use carrots and sticks to buy time and fend off U.S. pressure on all these fronts.
The carrots could include a willingness to increase its purchases of U.S. energy and agricultural products, make substantial investments in the United States that will create jobs, take back Chinese nationals who are in America illegally, step up efforts to stop the flow of chemicals that are used to produce fentanyl, and at least offer to help secure peace in Ukraine.
There are several concrete things Mr. Trump can ask for. He should insist that China stop supporting Russia’s defense industrial base, which powers the war in Ukraine and poses a long-term threat to European and trans-Atlantic security. If Mr. Xi refuses, Mr. Trump should impose biting sanctions on Chinese companies and banks that help Moscow acquire drones, satellites and other important technologies. He will have to get Europe to do so as well.
Mr. Trump is right that our trade with China is out of balance. He should persuade Mr. Xi to support a pathway to a fairer trade relationship. Before the two leaders meet, the administration should complete its review of the trade deal reached during Mr. Trump’s first term. Mr. Trump should also make clear to Mr. Xi that the United States expects China to meet most of its unfilled commitments, including its promises to purchase U.S. energy and agricultural goods.
He could also affirm his interest in Chinese investment in the United States. As a presidential candidate, Mr. Trump broke with his party’s position and said he would welcome Chinese automotive investments, for example in battery and electric vehicle plants, that would employ American workers. The United States could benefit from such investments, but Mr. Trump should insist that China also share some of its technology, which would enable U.S. companies to catch up with their Chinese competitors. This would replicate Beijing’s longstanding practice of pressuring and sometimes requiring foreign companies to transfer their technology to Chinese entities as a condition for doing business in the Chinese market, often through joint ventures.
There is also room for progress on nuclear weapons, although not the nuclear arms reductions talks between the United States, Russia and China that Mr. Trump has said he wants. Mr. Xi is committed to increasing his country’s nuclear arsenal, so it is closer to parity with the United States’ — a goal China is projected to reach by 2035. Mr. Trump should use this meeting to press for greater transparency about China’s nuclear weapons and urge Beijing to regularly discuss nuclear, cyber and space defense issues to reduce the risk of a conflict escalating to nuclear war.
Any deal between the United States and China will require Mr. Trump to make some concessions. In addition to forgoing new tariffs, the United States could agree to roll back tariff increases imposed in recent years in sectors with little or no impact on national security. We should expect China to do the same. China’s permanent normal trade relations status could remain intact. The United States could acknowledge mutual vulnerability to nuclear annihilation as a fact. Mr. Trump could also offer to host Mr. Xi for a summit in Washington, with enough pomp to convey the respect that China’s political system and Mr. Xi crave. (The last state visit for Mr. Xi in the United States was in 2015; he hosted Mr. Trump in 2017.)
Some things should be off the table in a Trump-Xi meeting, such as restrictions on the transfer of U.S. technology to China that could enhance its military capabilities. Moreover, Mr. Trump should not agree to limit arms sales to Taiwan or endorse Beijing’s objective of reunifying Taiwan with China.
Strategic competition between the United States and China will endure for many decades to come. Meetings between American and Chinese leaders provide crucial opportunities to push for progress in important areas of foreign policy and to manage risk. This first meeting of Mr. Trump’s second presidency presents an opportunity to secure a relationship with China that is more equitable and helps make America safer, stronger and more prosperous.
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