Zelensky Seeks U.S. Security Guarantees at Munich

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at Russia-Ukraine peace efforts at the Munich Security Conference, the European Commission’s response to proposed U.S. reciprocal tariffs, and growing Chinese influence in the South Pacific.

U.S. Support, or Lack Thereof

Reaching consensus on a future Russia-Ukraine peace deal was a top priority for many high-level officials on the sidelines of the first day of the Munich Security Conference this Friday. But most eyes were glued to U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

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U.S. Support, or Lack Thereof

Kyiv needs “real security guarantees” to negotiate with Moscow, Zelensky told Vance on Friday, alluding to U.S. military promises that President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to reduce or end entirely. Zelensky also specified that he would not speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin until Ukraine had agreed on a plan with Trump as well as European leaders.

That may be easier said than done. Earlier this week, Trump held a nearly 90-minute phone call with Putin, where the U.S. president appeared to offer unilateral concessions without Kyiv’s involvement. These included Ukraine potentially giving up some of its Russian-occupied territory (which Zelensky vehemently opposes) and forbidding Kyiv from joining NATO. On Thursday, Trump also said that Moscow should be allowed to rejoin the G-7.

Vance appeared to reiterate Trump’s remarks to Zelensky on Friday. “We want the war to come to a close, we want the killing to stop, but we want to achieve a durable, lasting peace, not the kind of peace that’s going to have Eastern Europe in conflict just a couple years down the road,” he said while sitting alongside U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Keith Kellogg, the White House’s special envoy for Russia and Ukraine.

On Thursday, though, Vance told the Wall Street Journal that Washington would consider using sanctions or even military action against Moscow if Putin does not agree to a deal that guarantees Ukraine’s long-term independence. Specifying that sending U.S. troops to Ukraine remained “on the table” marked a much tougher tone than what U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth implied on Wednesday, when he said the United States would not commit peacekeeping forces to the country.

The apparent policy confusion is just one reason why many in Europe are troubled by the Trump administration’s approach. “Conversations we’ve been having with European officials in Munich over the last two days have betrayed deep concerns about the United States’ status as a reliable partner, even amid a recognition that Europe must do more for its own defense,” FP’s Rishi Iyengar and Keith Johnson report from Munich.

Vance’s more hawkish tone came mere hours before a drone armed with a warhead hit the outer protective shell of Ukraine’s Chernobyl nuclear plant. Kyiv accused Russia on Friday of launching the attack, which caused some structural damage and sparked a fire, but the Kremlin has denied responsibility.

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, radiation levels at the shuttered plant, which was the site of the world’s worst nuclear accident in 1986, have not increased. But the assault raised alarms worldwide about attacks on nuclear facilities. Throughout the nearly three-year Russia-Ukraine war, drones have occasionally hit Kyiv’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is Europe’s largest such facility.

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What We’re Following

“Unjustified barriers.” The European Commission vowed on Friday to respond “firmly and immediately” to Washington’s proposed reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners with duties on the United States. “The EU maintains some of the lowest tariffs in the world and sees no justification for increased U.S. tariffs on its exports,” the commission said, noting that more than 70 percent of global imports enter the bloc duty-free.

On Thursday, Trump directed acting Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and acting Trade Representative Jamieson Greer (neither of whom have been confirmed by the Senate yet) to determine within 180 days which economies should receive U.S. levies. Already, presidential trade advisor Peter Navarro has singled out the European Union’s value-added tax as a trade tactic that he claims hurts U.S. exports. European countries, however, argue that these taxes are not equivalent to tariffs because they also apply to domestic producers.

The EU is one of Washington’s biggest trading partners, with goods exchanged totaling nearly $976 billion in 2024. But Trump is more concerned about the United States’ trade deficit with the bloc, which increased 12.9 percent from 2023 to hit $235.6 billion last year.

Reciprocal tariffs (which could go into effect on April 2 at the earliest) would be imposed in addition to U.S. duties on aluminum and steel imports, which are due to begin on March 12. Still, nothing is set in stone. “There is a window for negotiation,” Irish Foreign Minister Simon Harris said earlier this week.

Pacific island influence. China and the Cook Islands were prepared on Friday to sign a comprehensive strategic partnership that aims to deepen political trust. The deal bolsters bilateral cooperation in deep-sea mining, marine infrastructure, and cultural exchanges, among other areas. Avarua has suggested that the partnership would help the Cook Islands diversify its economy after the COVID-19 pandemic hurt its tourism industry.

Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang this week to discuss joint relations. Both countries have stressed that the deal does not have a security dimension. However, Brown’s trip to China, the country’s first in a decade, has worried New Zealand. Kiwi Foreign Minister Winston Peters has accused Brown of keeping the deal’s details a secret from Wellington despite New Zealand repeatedly asking for them.

“We have concerns about the Chinese state military apparatus penetrating deeply into a country that is part of the New Zealand Realm,” a New Zealand government official told the Washington Post, alluding to recent Chinese efforts to gain influence among Pacific island countries, such as the Solomon Islands, Kiribati, and Nauru. In 1965, the Cook Islands gained partial independence from New Zealand.

Legal retaliation. Mexico City has not ruled out a civil lawsuit against Google if it continues to label the entire Gulf of Mexico as the “Gulf of America” on its mapping app, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Thursday. Trump signed an executive order last month to change the body of water’s name as part of his America First agenda. But Sheinbaum argues that Trump’s decree should only apply to the part of the Gulf of Mexico that sits on the United States’ territory. “We have sovereignty over our continental shelf,” Sheinbaum said.

In a more political stunt, Sheinbaum also asked Google on Thursday to change the listed name of North America to “Mexican America,” pointing to a document preceding Mexico’s constitution that identifies the continent as such.

Google posted to X last month that the company maintains the “longstanding practice of applying name changes when they have been updated in official government sources.” How the gulf is labeled on Google Maps depends on where the user is located. If the user is in the United States, the body is labeled “Gulf of America”; if the user is in Mexico, the water is labeled “Gulf of Mexico”; and if the user is in another country, the area appears as “Gulf of Mexico (Gulf of America).”

What in the World?

Reports emerged on Tuesday that the president of which country was delaying a trip to Washington that had been planned for next week?

A. EgyptB. FinlandC. MexicoD. Japan

Odds and Ends

Searching for love this Valentine’s Day? So are billions of others, including a few who’ve turned to reality dating programs for a little help. In a special holiday roundup, Foreign Policy looks at eight guilty-pleasure TV shows from around the world that offer a rare geopolitical lens into family, gender, and (of course) romance, proving that love—and drama—truly transcends borders.

And the Answer Is…

A. Egypt

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s move was motivated by Trump’s plan to displace millions of Palestinians from Gaza, marking a stark departure from the leaders’ previously friendly relationship, Mahmoud Salem writes.

To take the rest of FP’s weekly international news quiz, click here, or sign up to be alerted when a new one is published.

The post Zelensky Seeks U.S. Security Guarantees at Munich appeared first on Foreign Policy.