Why ‘Anora’ Is Now the Oscar Frontrunner for Best Picture

What a difference a few days makes. Coming into the most pivotal week of Oscar season so far, neither strategists nor pundits nor, really, anyone else in the industry had a clue as to what was about to reveal itself as the frontrunner. Presumptive leader Emilia Pérez had, barring a campaign miracle, been effectively taken out of contention for the top award after a damaging scandal that only got worse. The rest of the top tier all seemed to be missing some key ingredient on the road to the top Oscar: The Brutalist’s cast was snubbed by SAG, Conclave’s director was snubbed by the Academy, Wicked’s director and writers were snubbed by the Academy, and A Complete Unknown still lacked in passionate critical support.

on last week’s Little Gold Men, but I’d be lying if I said I was confident. The film’s strength lies in its range of appeals: as a daring example of American independent filmmaking, a wildly entertaining comedy, and a work of cinephilia in conversation with generations of classic filmmaking. Getting three chances to make crucial speeches this weekend, Baker used his time to earnestly and movingly advocate for theatrical exhibition, and to highlight his film’s indie bona fides, as a $6 million production that’s gone on to gross more than $36 million worldwide. “We shot on film, we shot in New York City,” he said at the Critics Choice Awards. “[We] put every dollar up on that screen. Independent film—we have to go for it, to stay on the big screen.”

It’s a potent message in a strange year for the industry, as Los Angeles just begins its recovery from last month’s devastating wildfires and the specialty box-office continues to face its challenges. The Brutalist has been making a similar pitch as Anora—and is similarly succeeding in its theatrical run—but the latter has had more time to both be seen and make its argument. It helps that Anora is a slightly easier sell, as a smart, sexy comedy whose emotional gut-punch sneaks up on you. In any case, it feels like the story the industry wants to get behind, as opposed to the more populist options that have certainly found massive audiences—Wicked, Conclave, A Complete Unknown—but are not eliciting the same level of excitement.

Friday’s Critics Choice Awards reminded just how chaotic this season has been. Anora lost its two seeming best chances at awards to The Substance, which won best screenplay (Coralie Fargeat) and actress (Demi Moore). Wicked’s Jon M. Chu pulled off a shocker in best director; he’s not even nominated at the Oscars. Adrien Brody held on with another best-actor win—the Brutalist star’s path to Oscar is looking smoother—while Kieran Culkin and Zoe Saldaña affirmed their leads in the supporting races. By the end of the night, Anora didn’t seem to be much in the running. Baker’s sense of awe as he walked up to the stage for best picture indicated genuine shock.

The next evening, DGA and PGA pulled double-duty. DGA went first, and as the feature-film nominees were announced, Anora clearly pulled ahead in the applause department. Also faring well in that regard: Nickel Boys’ RaMell Ross, who won the first-time theatrical feature award; he’s up for best screenplay at the Oscars, and the movie is nominated for best picture. Top Oscar acting contenders like Ralph Fiennes, Madison, Brody, and Moore all presented, and while Fiennes gave the best speech of the night, Moore was met with deafening cheers—the support for her candidacy may be too strong even for Anora fever to stop.

The love for Anora in the room, though, was loud and clear. Multiple DGA members I spoke with inside told me they voted for it. A few others in attendance were at a post-screening Q&A that I moderated in Hollywood just after the Oscar nominations. When I’d asked that ecstatic, packed house who hadn’t yet seen the movie, the vast majority raised their hands. It’s worth noting that DGA voting just closed over the weekend; this film is still being discovered and finding new fans. Its position is strengthening at the perfect moment.

Baker won the top DGA Award in an upset over The Brutalist’s Brady Corbet, and he hopped over from that ceremony in Beverly Hills to Century City (a quick drive) to make it to PGA, about a half hour before his category was announced. Anora was similarly considered an underdog there: the producers love to honor their smash hits, and with the likes of Wicked and A Complete Unknown competing, Baker had a few Goliaths to slay. When he reached the stage, he made his movie’s own producorial case. “I saw them shine as producers and make miracles day by day,” Baker said of his co-producers, Samantha Quan and Alex Coco. “They never said ‘no’ to me. They always said ‘we’ll work it out.’ And they worked it out.”

So is this it? Is Anora our Oscar winner for best picture? I suspect so, but this remains a weird year where all bets are off. Next week, Anora is very likely to dominate the Film Independent Spirit Awards, while Conclave may make up some ground at the BAFTAs. Oscar voting will be over a few days after that, and then we wait. The SAG Awards will take place during that waiting period, in an unusual calendar shift (meaning, it cannot impact the Oscars), but if Anora wins the best-ensemble trophy there, you can consider this thing effectively over. If not, we still have a race—but unless Conclave starts a run of its own, I’d still be hard-pressed to call anything but Anora the front-runner.

All credit to Neon’s awards operation for running another smart, scrappy campaign—the studio got Parasite across the finish line in 2020 and just last year achieved another Oscar-winning breakthrough with Anatomy of a Fall. What these films have in common (aside from Palme d’Ors) is an accessible sophistication, a high level of craft and thought wrapped into an entertaining package. This stuff gets the industry excited about movies—and why shouldn’t it? Just before the DGAs started (and right next door to the DGA venue), Neon threw a celebratory toast for the movie. The mood, coming off of Critics Choice, was ebullient, but few there assumed the day’s celebrations were just getting started.

One last note: Baker is individually up for four Oscars, as a producer, writer, director, and editor. It’s conceivable now that he sweeps his categories—which would tie the record for Oscars won in a single year with Walt Disney, who pulled it off in 1953. Not bad company.

Linked here are the full winners lists for the DGAs and the PGAs.

Additional reporting by Rebecca Ford.

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