A new era starts in the three Baltic countries on February 8. On that day, , and are turning off the switch on their connection to the Russian electricity grid, 10 months ahead of schedule.
The move is merely symbolic as the three Baltic countries have not bought Russian or Belarusian electricity since May 2022, so users shouldn’t notice any difference or experience disruptions.
To strengthen their electricity systems the Baltic countries have been slowly connecting to the shared Synchronous Grid of Continental Europe system, the world’s second-largest synchronized grid after China.
They will be the last countries to join the system, which also includes Turkey, Ukraine and Moldova.
A shared Soviet history comes to an end
For more than five decades, the Baltic states were satellite states of the former . A historical anomaly from these times is a shared electricity grid called BRELL. The power transmission network connects the electricity systems of — including its — and the three Baltic countries. The name “BRELL” comes from the initials of these countries.
The Soviet Union recognized Baltic independence in 1991. For the Baltics an openness to Europe and the EU was a strategic goal but disconnecting from an integrated power network takes time.
All three joined the EU and in 2004. All three also use the euro as their official currency. With a combined population of just over 6.1 million the Baltics are small compared to other European giants like with over 84.5 million people or neighboring with over 38 million.
Kaspars Melnis, Latvia’s minister for climate and energy, says the Baltic countries are a “small market for the electricity,” so the diconnecting project is about “defense, energy security, independence and the economy.” Recent events in Ukraine had show that “the decision to switch off was the right one,” he told DW.
Melnis doesn’t expect leaving the BRELL system will affect electricity prices. If anything, new renewables coming online soon could mean lower prices by the end of the year, he said.
The Baltics and wider EU energy security
By placing all their bets on the EU’s electricity grid, the three states are demonstrating their European ties while distancing themselves even further from Russia and their Soviet past.
Since independence, they have been leery of Russia and its influence over the region. After , Moscow withheld natural gas and went after Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, forcing also the Baltics to invest in non-Russian alternatives to secure their energy infrastructure.
Kristine Berzina, managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Geostrategy North project, says before the war it was called in question whether disconnecting from the Russian system and grid was “worth it.”
“Citizens don’t like paying extra for energy infrastructure, and politicians have a hard time explaining why changes are necessary if things seem to be working,” she told DW.
But Russian belligerence forced the Baltics to take measures to ensure an uninterrupted flow of electricity. “Being connected means being tied to an adversary that claims that the Baltic states shouldn’t exist,” said Berzina, adding that “staying connected was a vulnerability.”
Additionally, suspected sabotage to critical undersea cables in the Baltic Sea have put Europe and NATO on edge and has led to .
For the Baltics energy independence means diversifying energy suppliers, diversifying the energy mix, plus the ability to integrate more renewables like solar and wind energy. It also allows them take part in the EU’s common electricity market.
By 2030, the EU has set a target for all members to be able to import or export at least 15% of the electricity produced on its territory to other EU countries. Brussels has supported the Baltic states’ efforts with €1.23 billion ($1.28 billion) of investments in connections to Europe that will give Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia more options for a reliable power supply. A bigger energy mix will ensure a steady flow of electricity.
Existing links, Poland’s help and sabotage
The Baltic’s main connection with the EU’s Synchronous Grid of Continental Europe will be via the overhead transmission line LitPol Link that connects Poland and Lithuania, which share a common border.
Moreover, the three countries are connected to the Scandinavian electricity market, which is a market of its own. Lithuania has an undersea link to Sweden called NordBalt, while Estonia has two direct undersea links to Finland — Estlink 1 and Estlink 2 — with a third connection expected to be finished by 2035.
However, the drastically reducing capacity between Estonia and Finland. A day after the incident, the released a statement saying that the ship involved was part of Russia’s .
The Commission was quick to say that the would not stall the planned disconnection from the Russian grid because of extra capacity the Baltics have built up over the years. “There is no risk to the security of electricity supply in the region,” a Commission statement said.
Kristine Berzina says that the three Baltic countries have “done a lot” over the past two decades to secure their energy supply, while at the same time allowing for “more competition in the electricity sector.”
Due to the “de-Russification” of energy sources and routes, she added, “energy sector competition policy has been very geopolitically powerful.”
With contributions from Juri Rescheto in Riga.
Edited by: Uwe Hessler
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