WARSAW — Poland is NATO’s top military spender for two reasons: to keep America close and Russia at bay, Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz told POLITICO.
This year, Poland aims to spend 4.7 percent of gross domestic product on its military, more than any other alliance member. A large portion of that is going to new weapons to modernize and expand Poland’s armed forces: Kosiniak-Kamysz estimated that $55 billion to $60 billion has been spent on American kit.
The hope in Warsaw is that those kinds of numbers will make an impression on Donald Trump and his new administration.
Although he hasn’t yet talked with new United States Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Kosiniak-Kamysz has met with U.S. officials tied to the Trump team and stressed the scale of Poland’s defense buildup.
“We can calmly show the new Trump administration that the two conditions which President Trump frequently underlines: defense spending, which we have at the highest level in NATO, and mutual economic relations for American business, we realize at the highest level in Europe,” said Kosiniak-Kamysz.
“It’s kind of an insurance policy,” he added.
And if other European countries are worried about the U.S. retreating from the continent and from NATO under Trump, they should follow Poland’s example, he said.
“Europe should invest more in security to retain the presence of the Americans in Europe, and not to replace them,” he said.
The other goal of that massive surge in spending on tanks, air defense systems, artillery and fighter jets is clear: to scare Russia.
“We have to be ready for any scenario, that is why we are investing so much money on armaments. NATO has two tasks: deterrence and defense,” said Kosiniak-Kamysz, speaking from Poland’s defense ministry. The building neighbors the hulking Russian Embassy in central Warsaw, a holdover from Soviet times when Moscow needed to keep a close eye on its sometimes unreliable satellite.
“We have to invest so much so that the Russian Federation is aware that an attack on any NATO member or Poland is completely unpredictable and will have tragic consequences.”
Trump drives spending
The revolution in military spending accelerated after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and pressure from Trump is driving budgets higher.
The new U.S. president wants NATO spending to rise to 5 percent of GDP, a huge leap from the current target of at least 2 percent.
Estonia and Lithuania are on board with Trump’s target, and Kosiniak-Kamysz said: “5 percent is an ambitious target but a necessary one.”
Boosting NATO’s target will be discussed at the alliance leaders’ summit in The Hague in June.
“If there is such a proposal, we are absolutely in favor of an increase in spending being a foundation of the next summit declaration,” the Polish minister said.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has said the new goal will be “north of 3 percent.”
Kosiniak-Kamysz added that countries failing to meet the 2 percent goal — now reached by 24 out of 32 alliance members — should rapidly catch up.
“It’s hard for me to imagine anyone sitting at the table for budget increase discussions if they have not fulfilled the target agreed many years ago,” he said.
Although support for Ukraine will be the top topic at the summit, Kosiniak-Kamysz doubted that Kyiv will get the invitation to join the alliance it is hoping for.
He underlined that an invitation has to be unanimous; there are currently deep doubts among some members about admitting a country fighting a war.
“Poland supports Ukraine being close to us, that it integrates with Europe,” said Kosiniak-Kamysz, not spelling out Warsaw’s position on issuing an invitation, but underlining that Poland’s own integration with the West took over a decade.
He also underlined that Poland does not support sending its soldiers to Ukraine — an idea first raised by French President Emmanuel Macron last year. Figures in the Trump administration are now pressing the concept of European troops being sent to Ukraine to act as peacekeepers in the event of a peace deal with Russia.
“Poland has clearly said from the beginning that it is not considering a scenario of sending troops to Ukraine,” said Kosiniak-Kamysz.
On the day of the interview earlier this week, the Polish minister signed a $745 million deal to equip Poland’s new fleet of Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II fighters with over 200 AGM-88G anti-radiation missiles.
It won’t be the last big weapons buy from Warsaw.
“The world has never been as dynamic and as dangerous in our lifetimes,” said Kosiniak-Kamysz.
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