India and Indonesia are in the final stages of negotiating a $450 million (€440 million) deal for the export of the “BrahMos” supersonic cruise missile.
If concluded, Indonesia will become the second nation, after the Philippines, to acquire this missile system.
During Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s , where he was the guest of honor at India’s Republic Day, he met with BrahMos CEO Jaiteerth Joshi in the presence of Indian Prime Minister .
A high-level delegation led by Indonesian navy chief Admiral Muhammad Ali also visited the BrahMos facility.
Defense boost amid China tensions
The missile, developed jointly by and , has gained traction among several countries in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, which are looking to procure both the shore-based and ship-mounted versions.
Many experts believe that the missile procurement is part of broader strategy to enhance its naval power and modernize its military amid growing security concerns related to China’s territorial ambitions and assertiveness in the region.
is pursuing territorial ambitions in the through a combination of coercive tactics and military buildup, despite overlapping claims by Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.
Srikanth Kondapalli, a professor of China studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, told DW that India’s offer to Indonesia to supply BrahMos cruise missiles is at an advanced stage of negotiations and should not be seen otherwise.
“I do not think that India is concerned about it. China had even transferred nuclear and ballistic missiles to and submarines to , , and others, thus impinging on Indian security,” said Kondapalli.
“At that time, China mentioned that it is a deal between two sovereign countries and now should be angry about Indian sales to Southeast Asia, or any other country. India also is aware that while it is trying to normalize relations with China,” he added.
India’s Defense Ministry and Foreign Office declined to comment on the specifics of the missile deal.
India’s balancing act
Since October last year, India and China have engaged in a series of confidence-building measures aimed at , which had been strained due to .
This renewed engagement follows a significant meeting between Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the October 2024 BRICS Summit in the Russian city of Kazan.
Both countries have moved forward to stabilize ties by agreeing to resume direct air services, start pilgrimages and increase cross-border trade.
It began after both sides pulled back their troops from two face-off points on their , following border clashes in 2020, which resulted in the deaths of at lease 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese troops.
Kondapalli pointed out that by arming Indonesia, India is signaling that its engagement with China will not come at the cost of its Indo-Pacific commitments.
“The sale of the BrahMos is related to creating a balance of power in Southeast Asia as China is militarizing the region to the exclusion of other countries,” he said.
Alka Acharya, honorary director of the Institute of Chinese Studies in New Delhi, said the missile sale has been on the cards for a very long time and it has prompted criticism from some Chinese commentators.
“This is not a new offer so that it could be linked to current tensions. But obviously, it will not go unnoticed or disregarded and the Chinese official response would certainly state their objections strongly especially how this would destabilize the region and help outside powers who are inimical to China,” Acharya told DW.
“However, the Indian position should be that this is not intended against any third country and is for the legitimate defense of Indonesia. It is not likely to derail the normalization process between India and China,” she added.
Deterrence without confrontation
India and Indonesia are concerned about a rising China’s increasing muscle-flexing, prompting analysts to argue that the “China factor” provides a strong basis for bilateral security cooperation.
Indonesia has had repeated confrontations with China over the Natuna Islands, where Chinese fishing vessels and coast guard ships have entered its EEZ.
In a few weeks, a high-level Indonesian defense delegation is expected to visit India to continue discussions on defense cooperation.
Anil Wadhwa, a former diplomat, said that this trend of diversifying defense partnerships away from traditional reliance on China should not be seen as an encroachment on China’s sphere of influence that could lead to likely diplomatic friction.
“China has been actively helping Pakistan in developing its naval capability and its air force through the F-17 fighter jets that are collaboratively produced and has facilitated sales of military equipment to Bangladesh and Sri Lanka as well as Myanmar,” Wadhwa told DW.
Wadhwa also referred to the Philippines’ 2022 purchase of a $375-million BrahMos anti-ship missile system.
“As far as the proposed Indian sale of Brahmos missiles to Indonesia and before that to the Philippines, it is all as a response to these countries seeking a defensive deterrent against Chinese aggression in the South China Sea,” he said, noting that under these circumstances India should not be overly concerned about a Chinese reaction.
Edited by: Keith Walker
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