As he campaigned for reelection last year, President Donald Trump promised to immediately lower the cost of living for everyday Americans. “From the day I take the oath of office,” he claimed in North Carolina in the fall, “we’ll rapidly drive prices down and make America affordable again.” But those were just words. Now, as he revs up a possible trade war with Canada and Mexico, Trump is acknowledging that his “beautiful” tariffs could come with a cost for the American public.
“WILL THERE BE SOME PAIN? YES, MAYBE (AND MAYBE NOT!),” Trump posted on his social media page Sunday. “BUT WE WILL MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, AND IT WILL ALL BE WORTH THE PRICE THAT MUST BE PAID.”
As of Monday, the situation is fluid: Trump agreed in the morning to pause his tariffs on Mexico after talks with the country’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum. (He is scheduled to speak with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in the afternoon.) Trump, unpredictable as ever, could potentially forgo his economic brinksmanship if he extracts concessions from both countries. It’s also possible that the president ultimately follows through on his long-held promise to impose the tariffs as means of restoring domestic manufacturing, curbing immigration, and preventing illegal drugs from flowing into the US. “We’re putting America first,” he said during his campaign, describing the word “tariff” as “one of the most beautiful words I’ve ever heard.”
So far, the financial establishment doesn’t seem to agree. Stocks slid Monday after Canada and Mexico promised to retaliate against the tariffs Trump signed over the weekend. Economists warned that the executive action, the most aggressively protectionist policy by the federal government since the Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930, would increase inflation and hamstring the economy. And the right-leaning Wall Street Journal lamented that Trump was instigating “the dumbest trade war in history.” To these critics, Trump had a curt message: “Anybody that loves and believes in the United States is in favor of Tariffs,” he posted.
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It was always clear that the cost of Trump’s tariff plan would be passed on to American consumers, who will see prices spike on everything from groceries to gasoline. But the coming domestic “pain” he acknowledged Sunday could put major political pressure on him. And Canada and Mexico’s potential “precision strikes”—retaliatory tariffs designed to exert pain on red states—could add to that pressure, potentially leading to pushback from allies with their own electoral concerns. “It will be paid for by American consumers,” Mitch McConnell said in a CBS News’ 60 Minutes interview Sunday. “Why would you want to get in a fight with your allies over this?”
Of course, it won’t just be Republican states dealing with the fallout. A trade will have widespread impacts on the American economy as a whole and on its alliances, as Larry Summers pointed out over the weekend. And this might just be the start: As Trump left Air Force One Sunday, he told reporters that the European Union and United Kingdom could be the next targets of his tariffs: “They’ve really taken advantage.”
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