Russia’s military commanders are planning operations that could take up to nine months to bear fruit, showing that Vladimir Putin has no intention of ending the war he started any time soon, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The Washington, DC think tank’s assessment said that a Russian plan to envelop the Kharkiv city of Kupiansk was one example of long-term strategic thinking and signaled that commanders believed the war would drag on.
Newsweek has contacted the Russian and Ukrainian defense ministries for comment.
Why it matters
The assessment Moscow is planning a slow and steady series of advances suggests that Putin is in no hurry to end the war, regardless of the urgency expressed by the new Trump administration for a hasty resolution to the conflict.
What to know
The ISW said the seizure of the Donetsk city of Avdiivka in February 2024 will probably be a blueprint for Russia’s future envelopments in other frontline areas, which will be conducted slowly.
Moscow’s effort to envelop Vuhledar from where Ukrainian troops withdrew in October 2024 has allowed Russia to advance further west, the ISW said.
Russia then stopped Ukrainian withdrawal routes and were able to envelop and capture Velyka Novosilka in January. This shows Russia’s methods involve slow envelopments of frontline towns and settlements.
Military analyst Emil Kastehelmi told Newsweek that it would be difficult for Russian forces to move quickly on from Velyka Novosilka due to limiting terrain like rivers and open fields and there was little that was achievable in this direction.
He also said the battle for Toretsk, 90 miles northeast, has been very slow with Russia making some recent progress, reaching the borders of the town, but Ukrainian forces still have a foothold in the southwestern Zabalka district.
The ISW said Friday that despite Russian success around Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka, larger envelopments around the hub of Pokrovsk and the Kharkiv city of Kupiansk will test Russian capabilities.
But enveloping Kupyansk will take months and Russian military command is committing to operations that are long-term under the assumption Putin does not intend to end the war in Ukraine any time soon, the think tank added.
What people are saying
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW): The Russian military command has shown that it is willing to commit to operations that could take six to nine months to conclude.”
“Russian commanders are likely operating under the assumption or direct knowledge that Russian President Vladimir Putin does not intend to end the war in Ukraine in the near future.
Emil Kastehelmi, from OSINT analysis firm Black Bird Group: “The battle of Toretsk has been a very slow one. Russia has made some progress in recent weeks, and has reached the borders of the town in many areas.
What happens next
The ISW’s assessment of Russian plans for slow operational maneuver on the battlefield requiring significant planning suggests that Putin’s war objectives are long-term and do not suggest he has any intention of agreeing to negotiations, regardless of what the Trump administration has said.
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