For months, Germany’s largest opposition force, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), beat the drum that the country’s general election on Feb. 23 was all about economic stagnation. This had been the CDU’s plan, designed and driven forward by its leader Friedrich Merz, a no-nonsense and pro-business conservative whose acclaimed expertise is the economy. And the ongoing flood of bad news about Germany’s dreary finances should have been the cue for Merz and his fellow conservatives to erupt into joyous schadenfreude. He was cruising toward victory and the chancellorship, a slam dunk to step into the shoes of the Germany’s last conservative heavyweight, Angela Merkel.
But that was last week. Merz shook the foundation of the postwar republic on Jan. 29 by staging a showdown with the government on the topic of migration, an issue that the country’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has leveraged to record results in the eastern states and that placed it behind only the CDU in national polls. In response to the recent stabbing of a 2-year-old boy and man in Aschaffenburg, allegedly by an asylum-seeker from Afghanistan, Merz swerved on a dime and proposed a raft of harsher border and asylum rules, several of which are probably unconstitutional.
For months, Germany’s largest opposition force, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), beat the drum that the country’s general election on Feb. 23 was all about economic stagnation. This had been the CDU’s plan, designed and driven forward by its leader Friedrich Merz, a no-nonsense and pro-business conservative whose acclaimed expertise is the economy. And the ongoing flood of bad news about Germany’s dreary finances should have been the cue for Merz and his fellow conservatives to erupt into joyous schadenfreude. He was cruising toward victory and the chancellorship, a slam dunk to step into the shoes of the Germany’s last conservative heavyweight, Angela Merkel.
But that was last week. Merz shook the foundation of the postwar republic on Jan. 29 by staging a showdown with the government on the topic of migration, an issue that the country’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has leveraged to record results in the eastern states and that placed it behind only the CDU in national polls. In response to the recent stabbing of a 2-year-old boy and man in Aschaffenburg, allegedly by an asylum-seeker from Afghanistan, Merz swerved on a dime and proposed a raft of harsher border and asylum rules, several of which are probably unconstitutional.
The CDU went even further—and here is the paradigm shift—and introduced a nonbinding motion calling for the permanent policing of borders, the entry refusal of all migrants without valid papers, and the confinement of refugees whose applications for political asylum have been rejected. On the Bundestag floor, the CDU and two smaller parties breached decorum and their own campaign pledges by passing the resolution—together with the votes from AfD. Never had any of the mainstream parties relied on AfD to make policy, and never had the far-right party been so vindicated by the establishment.
In less than a month, we will know whether Merz’s high-risk gambit paid off or cost his party, as similar extreme-right poaching has hurt and even decimated center-right parties elsewhere in Europe. But, as of this week, we already know more about Merz himself, a seasoned politician and businessman, though one who has never governed at any level. He is considered a man with a short fuse and prone to overreaction, which is why Merkel cut him loose from the party in the aughts. Merz’s self-described “all-in” migration U-turn reflects a high-risk, high-reward, and boundary-pushing mentality that would be a radical break with cautious, consensus-seeking German leaders we’ve known in the recent past, including current German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, but most notably Merkel.
“As a conservative, Merz is a solid Ronald Reagan type whose principles are consistent,” said Alan Posner, a German commentor and author of a book on European conservatism. Merz wants Germany to sink corporate tax rates, lower energy prices, and move people from welfare rolls into the workplace. “But in terms of the art of politics, he is erratic and often shortsighted,” Posner said. “It’s worrying.”
The ruling Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Greens, who voted against the CDU’s resolution and will vote on Jan. 31 against another Merz measure to curb immigration numbers and family reunion rights, are screaming that the motion that passed with AfD votes is a breach of the so-called “firewall” separating mainstream politics from the far right. (The AfD clearly thought so, too, with members bursting into smiles and backslapping when the measure passed.)
“There must be no majority for CDU/CSU and AfD after the Bundestag election,” Scholz warned in the Bundestag on Jan. 29. “Otherwise, we are threatened with a black and blue government in Germany.”
The conservatives have “left the political center,” said SPD leader Rolf Mutzenich, adding that the day will “go down in the history of this country.” Mutzenich’s comment came as the vote happened, which was only hours after the Bundestag commemorated the 80th anniversary of the liberation of the Auschwitz concentration camp.
Other observers dispute the center-left’s firewall charges as exaggerated but not the light in which the event casts Merz.” Since “there is no coalition government between the CDU and AfD,” opined Spiegel’s Mathieu von Rohr, the firewall stands but “there are deep cracks” in it.
“After the bloodbath in Aschaffenburg, Merz ignored his previous assurances that he would not participate in a chance majority with the AfD,” von Rohr wrote. “Who can now be sure that Merz will keep his promises on the coalition issue? And how long will CDU politicians in the east, who have so far only tried to distance themselves from the AfD in line with the [SPD] party line, feel bound to this?” What’s indisputable is that Germany’s conservatives are one step closer to the kind of tolerant cohabitation with the hard right that prevails just about everywhere else in Europe.
That shift is in reaction to several shocking, bloody incidents—two of which occurred in just a month—that have rearranged the calculus of German politics. The first event happened in Magdeburg on Dec. 20 and involved a 50-year-old Saudi Arabian doctor with permanent residency who rammed a BMW into a Christmas market crowd, killing at least five people and injuring hundreds. Although the perpetrator supported AfD and criticized Islam, the far-right party pounced on the tragedy. AfD’s co-leader Alice Weidel posted on X “that Magdeburg would not have been possible without uncontrolled immigration. The state must protect its citizens through a restrictive migration policy and consistent deportations!”
The second event was the aforementioned stabbing, which occurred in Aschaffenburg on Jan. 22. The suspect is a man from Afghanistan whose request for asylum was denied and whose deportation was imminent. The attack resulted in the death of a toddler and adult, and three others were injured. The AfD thundered that Germany must immediately close its borders to all migrants and start the mass deportation of people with a migrant background.
For years, many observers had counted Merz out as a viable candidate for chancellor. In polls, he regularly lands somewhere in the middle of Germany’s political class—at best. Among Merz’s weaknesses are his failure to project empathy, an image underscored by his austere economic policies. Despite his familiarity as long-standing politician, he strikes voters as distant and aloof in a way that Merkel never did. But in the end, conservatives rallied around Merz as the kind of center-right candidate who could win back votes lost to extremists during the era of Merkel-led moderation.
Merz’s helter-skelter calls for action on migration will probably fan the flames of populism rather than prompt constructive remedies to the serious problem at hand. Firstly, permanently closing Germany’s borders violates European Union rights on freedom of movement—long a cornerstone for the bloc’s flow of commerce, labor, and tourists across EU borders. (The current SPD-led government has already heightened security by mounting temporary controls on the country’s border—in harmony with EU law that enables this for a finite period.) Moreover, a suspension of the right to political asylum contradicts the Geneva Conventions, Treaty on European Union, and Germany’s constitution. That right is particularly relevant for Germany since hundreds of thousands of Jewish people and others tried to flee the country during the Nazi era—only to have their applications rejected or ships turned around and ultimately perish in death camps.
Secondly, the closure of borders doesn’t address the migrants and refugees currently in Germany, some of whom may be psychologically impaired and dangerous. The Magdeburg and Aschaffenburg killings illustrate a breakdown in internal security, not external; Germany’s police and other security services were aware of the perpetrators and should have been on top of them. Perhaps Merz skirts this fact because the CDU voted in late 2024 against some of the government’s attempts to strengthen internal security, such as measures that would make it easier to carry out deportations and further tighten weapons legislation.
The chief victim of this hail Mary may be Merz himself. Not only did he play into the far right’s court and alienate his potential coalition partners, but he also underscored how ruffled he becomes under pressure. “Merz comes across as a politician without vison: capricious, impatient, and emotion driven,” Stefan Reinecke wrote for the Tageszeitung. “He behaves like someone who is being driven by the AfD. Merz is reinforcing all the reservations against him. Can someone who gets carried away with such panic-attack rhetoric negotiate with Trump and Putin as chancellor?”
With no guarantee of success, the CDU is testing whether it can prevail where its European brethren have faltered. Can the great postwar party steal the fire from the surging AfD and ride it to a convincing victory? The CDU’s lead candidate for chancellor is—despite dire warnings of the risks—betting that this exact tactic will pay off. Comfortably ahead in the polls, Merz remains the overwhelming favorite to become chancellor, despite his jittery, shot-from-the-hip response to the latest incident. But by abandoning the political middle, the ever-more populist CDU may have trouble finding a centrist coalition partner, namely the SPD or the Greens, willing to rule with it.
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