Until just moments before an American Airlines regional plane and an Army helicopter collided over the Potomac River last night, nothing in particular seemed amiss. Conditions were clear, Sean Duffy, the new secretary of transportation, noted in a press conference this morning. The passenger jet, coming from Wichita, Kansas, was about to arrive at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport—one in a succession of airliners landing about two minutes apart. The Black Hawk helicopter was on a training mission from Virginia’s Fort Belvoir. Both aircraft were in a “standard flight pattern,” Duffy said. Referring to the crowded and shared air space around D.C., he added, “This was not unusual.”
And that may turn out to be the problem. The precise immediate cause of the crash—which killed all 64 passengers and crew members aboard the airliner and all three people in the helicopter—will not become clear until investigators fully analyze recordings of air-traffic-control communications and the plane’s black box. But the accident follows a long string of alarming near collisions at airports across the country—a pattern suggesting that the aviation-safety systems upon which human life depends are under enormous strain.
In 2023, the Federal Aviation Administration identified 19 “serious runway incursions,” the most in almost a decade. The causes of these events are varied: air-traffic-control staffing shortages, pilot inexperience, demand for air travel, outdated technology. The increase in near misses led the FAA to create a safety review team and issue a rare industrywide “safety call to action” demanding greater vigilance throughout the community. These incidents do not appear to have prompted any major changes in safety practices either nationally or in the Washington area. Last year, the number of serious incursions declined, making the issue seem less urgent.
Reagan National’s tight footprint and three intersecting runways, along with the presence of military and other government operations nearby, make the air space surrounding the facility relatively tricky for pilots to navigate. As the popular open-source intelligence account @OSINTtechnical noted on X once footage of the accident and its aftermath began spreading on social media, “For many in the DC-area flying community, the crash tonight wasn’t a matter of if, but when.” (This morning, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced an investigation of the Army helicopter’s role in the incident.)
In 2013, an airliner and a military helicopter flying at the same altitude near Reagan National came within 950 feet of each other. Last May, a Boston-bound jet traveling 100 miles an hour on the runway had to abort its takeoff because another plane had been cleared to land on an intersecting runway. Even so, the FAA added additional flight slots to Reagan National last year, over the objections of local politicians who worried about congestion and overburdening capacity.
The crash near Reagan National was the first major aviation disaster involving a U.S. airline since 2009—long enough that nearly a generation of Americans are experiencing this crash as their first. Such incidents have become so rare that Americans come to assume that safety precautions automatically work.
Safety systems are vulnerable to a phenomenon known in the disaster-management world as the “near-miss fallacy”—an inability to interpret and act upon the warnings embedded in situations where catastrophe is only narrowly avoided. Paradoxically, people may come to see such events as signs that the system is working. In her groundbreaking research on NASA after the space shuttle Challenger exploded in 1986, the American sociologist Diane Vaughan faulted the agency for its “normalization of deviance.” The direct culprits in the spacecraft’s fate were faulty booster-rocket parts known as “O-rings.” Vaughn noted that shuttle missions had been experiencing problems with the parts for years, but NASA had downplayed their importance. Engineers were able to normalize O-ring incidents and other safety issues because none had caused significant harm—until one did.
The immediate cause of the crash over the Potomac may turn out to be a single tragic mistake. But this deadly tragedy occurred within a broader context. For some time, our aviation system has been ignoring warning signs and normalizing deviance. Good luck can last only so long, and it ran out last night.
The post The Near Misses at Airports Have Been Telling Us Something appeared first on The Atlantic.
