The stumbling performance by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., President Trump’s pick to serve as health secretary, at his first confirmation hearing on Wednesday did not appear to have an immediate bearing on his chances of being confirmed, with no Republican yet publicly voicing any opposition.
Like all nominees, Mr. Kennedy can afford to lose no more than three Republican votes if all Democrats are united in their opposition to him. It is also not clear whether Democrats will unanimously oppose him. Senator John Fetterman, Democrat of Pennsylvania, met with Mr. Kennedy and has said that he is not reflexively opposed to his nomination.
Some Republicans have said they have questions or harbor reservations about Mr. Kennedy’s position on abortion and his opposition to vaccines. But the confirmation of Pete Hegseth, the defense secretary, underscored that at the dawn of the Trump era, questions and reservations from G.O.P. senators sometimes give way to a “yes” vote in the end.
As is the case with all of Mr. Trump’s more baggage-laden nominees, Mr. Kennedy’s fate likely sits in the hands of a small group of Republicans who have shown some willingness to break with the president in the past, or who have made noise about wanting to demonstrate independence in the future.
Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, two of the last center-leaning Republicans in the Senate, have proven to be the only ones willing to regularly break with the party. They both voted to convict Mr. Trump during his second impeachment trial and they both voted against the confirmation of Mr. Hegseth. They are also the only two Republican senators who support reproductive rights.
During the hearing, Mr. Kennedy, who supported abortion rights during his presidential campaign but has changed his position on abortion to echo President Trump’s, said he would study whether mifepristone, an abortion medication, was unsafe.
Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the former Republican leader, is seen as another likely hold out. Mr. McConnell, a polio survivor, has said that anyone who would “undermine public confidence in proven cures” would have trouble winning Senate confirmation. Out of leadership and liberated to vote the way he wants to, Mr. McConnell opposed Mr. Hegseth’s confirmation. He also did not meet with Mr. Kennedy when he visited with senators on Capitol Hill ahead of his hearings.
But the chances of a fourth Republican voting against him get slimmer.
Senator John Curtis, Republican of Utah and a newcomer to the Senate, has said he wants to be an independent voice but has yet to cast any vote that was not in lock step with Mr. Trump’s agenda. The prevalence of biotechnology companies in Utah has made people think that Mr. Kennedy’s confirmation might be a good place for him to demonstrate a break, though he could also do that by opposing the nomination of Tulsi Gabbard to serve as director of national intelligence.
Senator Joni Ernst, Republican of Iowa, has said she harbors concerns about Mr. Kennedy’s shifting stance on abortion. But the bar that she has set for him to clear — to state a position on abortion — hardly seemed like a real barrier to earning her vote. During the hearing, Mr. Kennedy assured senators he would implement Mr. Trump’s policies when it came to abortion and said that he now believes that “every abortion is a tragedy.”
Ms. Ernst — a survivor of sexual assault and the Senate’s first female combat veteran — recently caved to a pressure campaign to back Mr. Hegseth’s bid after raising concerns that she ultimately swallowed. She is up for re-election in 2026.
Senator Chuck Grassley, Republican of Iowa, has expressed policy disagreements with Mr. Kennedy, including his desire to ban processed foods, certain pesticides and seed oils. But Mr. Grassley this week already chided the Trump administration for firing more than a dozen inspectors general without giving the necessary 30-day warning to Congress, and demanded that he provide answers for the firings. It would be notable if Mr. Grassley were to push back twice in one week against the administration.
White House officials would be surprised, too.
“We love Chuck Grassley,” Stephen Miller said on CNN when asked about his pushback on the firings of the inspectors general. “The president loves Chuck Grassley. I love Chuck Grassley, as far as I know, everyone in America loves Chuck Grassley. So we fully embrace that relationship and are a close partner of his.”
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