President Donald Trump eked out a victory on Sunday after Colombia backed down from a trade war with the U.S., showing the potential benefits of his tariff strategy — at least when the tariffs themselves aren’t actually used.
Trump has made tariffs a cornerstone of his economic policy, often levying the threat of them as a bargaining tactic. On Sunday, after Colombia denied two military planes bringing Colombian migrants from America back to the country, he returned to his tried-and-true.
“[Colombian President Gustavo] Petro’s denial of these flights has jeopardized the National Security and Public Safety of the United States,” Trump said as he issued a travel ban and revoked visas from Colombian government officials and their families, declared new sanctions, and increased border security inspections.
He also declared that tariffs of 25% on Colombian imports would go into immediate effect and double to 50% after a week. “These measures are just the beginning,” he wrote on his Truth Social at around 1:30 p.m. on Sunday.
Petro, in a lengthy statement that called himself “stubborn” and compared Trump’s actions to a “coup,” rebutted by slapping 50% tariffs on all U.S. imports.
“Your blockade does not scare me, because Colombia, besides being the country of beauty, is the heart of the world,” Petro wrote at 4:15 p.m. ET. “I know that you love beauty as I do, do not disrespect it and you will give it your sweetness.”
Then, he gave in.
About six hours later, the White House said Colombia had agreed to all of Trump’s terms, so the tariff orders would be “held in reserve, and not signed.” However, enhanced customs inspections and visa restrictions would remain “until the first planeload of Colombian deportees is successfully returned.”
Colombia Foreign Minister Luis Gilberto Murillo said at a news conference that the two countries had “overcome the impasse.” The government said in a statement that its presidential aircraft was ready to facilitate the return of migrants meant to arrive earlier that day.
Just like that, the first trade war of the second Trump administration came to a screeching halt.
The standoff marked a tense moment between the U.S. and what has been traditionally seen as its top ally in Latin America. Trump’s predecessor, former President Joe Biden, once called it “the key to the hemisphere.”
The country is the U.S.’s fourth-largest supplier of crude oil, largest supplier of fresh flowers, and accounts for about 20% of all coffee shipped to the U.S. According to the United States Trade Representative, the U.S. had a trade surplus of $3.9 billion in 2022, exporting $28.7 billion and imported $24.8 billion worth of goods.
Colombia accepted 475 deportation flights from the U.S. between 2020 and 2024, according to Witness at the Border, making it the fifth-most facilitator of such flights. But as Trump focuses on his mass deportation plans and ending trade deficits, he’s continued to imitate his former pen pal Richard Nixon’s “madman theory.”
Only, instead of threatening to use nuclear bombs in Vietnam, Trump promises economic damage.
“We must as a nation be more unpredictable,” Trump said in 2018. “I wouldn’t have to, because [Chinese President Xi Jingping] respects me and he knows I’m f—ing crazy,” Trump said in 2017 when asked about using military force to defend Taiwan.
After winning the presidential election, Trump threatened to hit China, Canada, and Mexico with tariffs ranging between 10% and 25% unless they met his various demands related to the flow of fentanyl and migrants at the U.S. borders.
That bought him an in-person meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and a phone call with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. He also talked about tariffs with Xi earlier this month. Despite those talks, Trump has said he will levy tariffs as soon as Feb. 1, unless his demands are met.
He’s also leveraged tariffs to try and force a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin to put an end to the Russia-Ukraine War, push the European Union to import more oil from the U.S., and convince companies to make products in the U.S. He also told the BRICS coalition of nations that they would face 100% tariffs if they try and “replace the mighty U.S. Dollar.”
If he does follow through on his tariffs, American consumers would likely pay the price, as corporations would push off some of the cost onto them. However, if Trump does follow through on his plans, a trade war is likely.
“The gazillion-dollar question is whether this is just a negotiating strategy,” Warren Maruyama, former general counsel for the U.S. Trade Representative under George H.W. Bush, told Quartz last month. “If he really is serious about the tariffs, [the affected countries] are probably going to hit back.”
The post Trump’s new tariff playbook is off to a strong start appeared first on Quartz.
