At a recent two-day meeting of the Supreme People’s Assembly in Pyongyang, confirmed several routine matters — including the state budget for the year ahead and greater defense spending – but made no mention of any position towards the new US government under President Donald Trump.
Analysts suggest that , the North Korean leader, may be biding his time and waiting for Trump to make an opening move that might presage a return of the “bromance” that saw the two men meet on three occasions the last time Trump was in the White House.
On the other hand, Pyongyang may be pointedly ignoring the US given the failure of the 2019 North Korea-United States Hanoi Summit, a meeting that left Kim embarrassed as he had staked so much on a positive outcome.
At the same time, the North is in a significantly better economic and military situation after signing , meaning Kim is less desperate for a better working relationship with the US, they say.
Maximum pressure on the US
And while Pyongyang may not have used the meeting to state its intentions towards the US, the test launch of a series of on Saturday, just days after ‘s , spoke volumes.
It followed up the next day with a statement condemning joint US-South Korean air exercises, declaring that Pyongyang would maintain “the toughest counteraction” to the US for as long as Washington ignores its sovereignty and security demands.
“Two weeks ago, Kim said North Korea would take a policy of maximum pressure on the US, although he did not elaborate on what that pressure might include,” said Moon Chung-in, a professor of politics and international relations at Yonsei University in Seoul and a former special adviser to President Moon Jae-in on national security and foreign affairs.
“For Kim, there has been a fundamental change in thinking when it comes to North Korea’s relations with the US, and the position now is that they cannot go through with what they say,” he told DW.
In December 2023, Kim stated that the US policy was still to overturn the North Korean regime, and he therefore saw no hope of a lasting deal with Washington, Moon said. He added that this realization was behind “the fundamental change in North Korean policy” announced in January last year that relations with the US were no longer the top priority for Pyongyang.
At that same People’s Assembly, Kim declared that peaceful reunification with South Korea was no longer possible and that his government was making a “decisive policy change” on its relations with the South, which he described as the North’s “primary foe and invariable principal enemy.”
Kim also ordered his military to be prepared to act to occupy and pacify the South, with the North underlining the schism that has taken place by ripping up railway lines that symbolically crossed the heavily fortified Demilitarized Zone that divides the two nations, destroying roads in the region and building additional defenses along the border.
Supreme People’s Assembly short of bombast
Last week’s 12th session of the 14th Supreme People’s Assembly was held at the Mansudae Assembly Hall in central Pyongyang, the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported, but contained far less bombast and rhetoric. It is not even clear if Kim attended in person as KCNA made no mention of his presence.
“I believe there was no mention of the US or Trump as Kim does not want to be the first to play a card at this new stage in North Korea-US relations,” said Stephen Nagy, a professor of politics and international relations at Tokyo’s International Christian University.
“By being less belligerent, he is providing an opening for Trump to perhaps employ some sort of unorthodox diplomacy,” he told DW.
Right now, Kim could afford to be patient as his rivals and other significant players with a stake in the situation in Northeast Asia are fully occupied elsewhere, Nagy added.
The new US president has just come in and has a full slate of issues to deal with, primarily on the domestic front. is fully . also has and is still weighing up the new US administration. Japan’s leadership is weak, and and trying to keep its economy afloat.
Geopolitical ‘sweet spot’
“Kim is in something of a geopolitical ‘sweet spot’ at the moment, with everyone else around him wrapped up in their own problems, so he can afford to be patient and see what the US is willing to offer,” Nagy said.
He also holds better cards than the last time Trump was president, thanks to his solid ties to Putin in Moscow, which is delivering military technology that was previously denied North Korea by international sanctions.
Yet, if Trump is genuinely keen on rekindling his ties with Kim and his plans for a permanent solution to the Korean situation, then Kim will listen, said Moon. But the North Korean leader may take some convincing, he added.
“Kim felt betrayed the last time when Trump failed to deliver on his promises,” he said. “Unless Kim sees very clear and workable initiatives from Trump, then I do not think he will return to the dialogue,” Moon underlined, adding that Kim has realized that his survival strategy is best served by getting closer to Russia.
Edited by: Shamil Shams
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