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Mitch McConnell’s Unburdened Era has begun.
The Kentucky Republican, who stepped down from his role as longest-serving party leader in history this month, has been signaling that he would be neither a party hack nor a yes-man for President Donald Trump’s agenda. And on Friday night, that signal became a siren through his vote against Pete Hegseth’s nomination to lead the Pentagon, forcing Vice President J.D. Vance to make history by casting just the second Cabinet nominee’s tie-breaker. (The other, of course, was Mike Pence to get Betsy DeVos across the line as Education Secretary.)
A single Republican Senator voting against a Trump nominee who still got confirmed may not seem like such a big deal. But McConnell is not just any Senator, and he does not usually find himself on the losing side of a vote without eyes on a longer game. His recent return to rank-and-file standing has awarded him freedoms he did not enjoy for 16 years atop the Republican hierarchy. He told colleagues he is finally “liberated.” Put simply: for the first time since 2007, McConnell is ready to just represent his constituents back home in Kentucky as he sees fit.
Yet even in his diminished role, McConnell still has influence in his caucus. So while Hegseth made it through, McConnell’s vote communicated to the White House to take his warnings seriously, and to fellow GOP lawmakers that fealty to Trump does not need to be absolute.
Any more wavering among the chamber’s Republicans could spell trouble for some of Trump’s other iffy nominees. Tulsi Gabbard as the Director of National Intelligence, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, Kash Patel to take over the FBI—all three of whom are headed to the Capitol this week for what are sure to be contentious confirmation hearings. If Trump lost McConnell on Hegseth, there is reason to think other Republican lawmakers might now look around and find good—and shrewd—company in the polite opposition.
“Effective management of nearly 3 million military and civilian personnel, an annual budget of nearly $1 trillion, and alliances and partnerships around the world is a daily test with staggering consequences for the security of the American people and our global interests,” McConnell said, explaining his vote Friday night. “Mr. Hegseth has failed, as yet, to demonstrate that he will pass this test. But as he assumes office, the consequences of failure are as high as they have ever been.”
That was McConnell using Senatespeak to invoke a slang vulgarity: FAFO.
Even in the moments before voting began, signs of Hegseth’s weak standing were evident when Sen. Roger Wicker, the chairman of the powerful Senate Armed Services Committee, reminded the near-empty chamber that there were political calculations they should heed.
“This is something that Senators need to think very carefully about. I would remind my friend and my fellow Senators and my fellow Americans that the voters of the United States spoke very strongly and very firmly and overwhelmingly on the first Tuesday of November for change,” Wicker said.
Implied were armies of loyalists who expect Trump to have something of a free hand in putting together his team. In the minds of many Republican advisers, that outsized influence should matter more than the allegations of mismanagement, sexual assault, and alcohol abuse that had dogged Hegseth’s nomination, along with concerns he didn’t have anywhere near the experience that most previous defense secretaries have had.
“He’s the President’s choice and we owe it to the Commander-in-Chief to put him in this position,” Wicker continued, before tacking on a telling waver, “unless he’s not qualified for this office.”
Read more: Senator: Pete Hegseth Is ‘Unqualified’
In the end, nearly every Republican Senator shoved their doubts on Hegseth down. But they might be less inclined to do that going forward. McConnell’s vote was not enough to block Hegseth but it did put him on the record, and other Senators are no doubt thinking about the calculus behind his defiance.
The rumor had been circling for weeks that there were far more Senators who privately opposed Hegseth than were willing to say so publicly. In stage-whispered tones, Republican aides were trying to tell the White House that their bosses might not be the automatic votes for the former Fox News host that everyone thought.
By Friday, even Trump seemed to understand the headwinds were strong. By the time voting started at little after 9 p.m.—a rare Friday night voting session capping a busy week that brought Trump back to power on Monday—a lot of eyes were on a handful of uncertain votes from Senators.
All signs pointed to a tight vote. Hegseth was working the Capitol ahead of the vote—a super-rare on-scene presence of any nominee. Rarer still were his family members loitering with the entourage. White House aides were similarly trying to smoke out where things stood. They helped Hegseth put together call sheets to make sure he was in the literal ear of any wobbling votes. Vance was on hand to break a potential tie should the vote get to 50-50.
Hegseth’s nomination, like all of Trump’s Cabinet nominations still remaining, could only afford to lose three votes. The no votes from Senators Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine were no surprises. They were no fans of the drip of stories about Hegseth’s alleged past that turned into a wave. Before he revealed his opposition, some had considered McConnell as a reliable vote against, even as he kept his cards close, as is his default.
There were also rumblings about the unsure nature of Sen. Thom Tillis’ stance; the North Carolina Republican said as the vote was proceeding that, after a two-hour conversation with Hegseth, he would be voting to confirm him. The faint whisps of curiosity about other potential flakes proved never to materialize. No other changes-of-heart were in the offing.
One way to look at Hegseth’s confirmation—despite the concerns among many in the Capitol about the wisdom of putting him in charge of the mightiest military on the planet—is to see it as proof of Trump’s tight grip on his party. But the fact that the vote was ever in doubt may tell a more interesting story. McConnell saw the vulnerability and acted, proving once again why he remains the sharpest tactician in the game. He didn’t stop Hegseth’s confirmation, but maybe that wasn’t the point. His early vote against a Cabinet pick may give others permission to get more gutsy the further from Inauguration Day they get. Or maybe they are now just realizing what McConnell has privately known all along: the President’s whims are far from inevitable.
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