At least three people were killed and more than 40 injured by Israeli forces on Sunday in southern Lebanon, Lebanese officials said, as the 60-day deadline for both Hezbollah and Israel to withdraw from the south expired and thousands of Lebanese displaced by the war poured onto roads leading south back to their homes.
The agreement, which was signed in November and halted the deadliest war in decades between the two sides, stipulated that both Hezbollah and Israel withdraw their forces from southern Lebanon, while the Lebanese Army and U.N. peacekeepers would be deployed in force to secure the area. Negotiators had hoped the cease-fire deal would become permanent, returning a measure of calm to a turbulent region.
But as the deadline passed on Sunday, a very different scenario was taking shape.
Israeli forces remained in parts of southern Lebanon in violation of the cease-fire agreement, stoking fears of a sustained Israeli occupation and renewed hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Israeli officials warned Lebanese not to return to their homes in many towns and villages in the south.
“In the near future, we will continue to inform you about the places to which you can return,” Avichai Adraee, the Arabic spokesman of the Israeli military, posted on social media on Sunday morning. “Until further notice, all previously published instructions remain in effect.”
Lebanon’s Health Ministry said that those injured on Sunday morning had been trying to enter their villages along the border when they encountered Israeli attacks. Residents of some southern towns had called for their neighbors to gather early Sunday morning and head to their homes in a convoy, despite the warnings from Israel. The Lebanese military said it was accompanying civilians returning to several border towns to try to ensure their safety. The military said in a statement that a Lebanese soldier was among those killed by Israeli fire.
The Israeli military did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the casualties. In recent days, Israeli officials have cited concerns that Hezbollah remains active in southern Lebanon and doubts about the Lebanese Army’s ability to stymie the group.
Those claims could not be independently verified, and the five-member committee overseeing the implementation of the cease-fire has not publicly released any information regarding Hezbollah’s compliance with the terms of the truce.
On Sunday, Mr. Adraee accused Hezbollah of inflaming the situation. Hezbollah’s broadcaster, Al Manar, had urged residents on Saturday to return to their villages, pledging that “nothing will keep them away from the land.”
In the southern town of Aita al-Shaab, much of which now lies in ruin, many heeded those calls and began streaming back to their homes on Sunday, arriving to rubble-strewed streets and flattened buildings.
Mohamed Srour, the town’s mayor, was among those returning after being displaced for more than a year. He said that Israeli soldiers had not yet fully withdrawn from the town and claimed that they were firing sporadically at civilians. The claims could not be independently verified. Still, Mr. Srour remained resolute.
“Today, Aita is celebrating the long-awaited return.” he said. “The houses are destroyed and the livelihood is gone, but our will to live is stronger. We will build again.”
The situation poses a critical test for Lebanon’s new leaders, President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister-designate Nawaf Salam, as they seek to wrest back some political control from Hezbollah, the country’s dominant political and military force, and build a functioning state. Mr. Aoun urged civilians to exercise restraint on Sunday, but stressed that the country’s sovereignty was “nonnegotiable.”
Any prolonged Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon could breathe new life into Hezbollah, a group that was founded to liberate Lebanon from Israeli occupation and that has portrayed itself as the only force capable of protecting Lebanon’s borders, experts say.
It also threatens to derail the current political momentum in Lebanon, where for the first time in decades there is a serious push to consolidate all military power within the state and do away with Hezbollah’s justification for its vast arsenal.
The focus in Lebanon now is toward “disarming Hezbollah and transitioning from the era in which Hezbollah was seen as having the right to acquire weapons,” said Mohanad Hage Ali, the deputy director for research at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, the Lebanese capital. Any prolonged Israeli occupation “would put the breaks on that momentum, which is happening organically,” he added.
Hezbollah officials did not respond to Israel’s accusations that the group remained militarily active in southern Lebanon, but said that they were “committed” to upholding the terms of the truce.
On Saturday, Lebanese Army officials said they were prepared to complete their deployment in the south but had been delayed “as a result of the procrastination in the withdrawal by the Israeli enemy,” according to a Lebanese Army statement.
This month, the American general overseeing the cease-fire monitoring committee expressed confidence in the Lebanese Army’s ability to secure southern Lebanon. The army continues to demonstrate that “it has the capability, intent and leadership to secure and defend Lebanon,” Maj. Gen. Jasper Jeffers said in a statement.
The 60-day truce took effect more than a year after Hezbollah began firing rockets toward Israeli positions in solidarity with its ally Hamas, the Palestinian militant group in Gaza that led the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel. Israel retaliated by assassinating Hezbollah’s leadership, leveling towns and villages along the border and invading southern Lebanon.
Even before Sunday’s deadline, thousands of Lebanese who were displaced by the war from homes along the southern border were preparing to return home. On Saturday, the main highway leading from Beirut to southern Lebanon was packed with cars, even as people received automated phone calls from the Israeli military warning them not to return home.
Israeli forces appeared to be continuing efforts that persisted during the 60-day truce to bulldoze and block roads between some villages in southern Lebanon, according to local news media. Israel currently occupies roughly 70 percent of the areas that it captured after invading Lebanon last fall, according to the United Nations peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah has not said how it plans to respond to Israel’s continued occupation of Lebanese soil. On Friday, Hezbollah officials warned in a statement that if Israeli forces remained in Lebanon beyond Sunday, it would amount to “an attack on Lebanese sovereignty and the beginning of a new chapter of occupation.”
Some Hezbollah lawmakers have vowed retaliation. But other officials from Hezbollah — which has been militarily and politically battered in recent months — instead shifted responsibility for responding to Israel to the Lebanese government. The group’s statement on Friday said that it was up to the state “to reclaim the land and wrest it from the grip of the occupation.”
That shifting of responsibility is a tried-and-true tactic for Hezbollah, which just a few months ago had called on the state to provide for thousands of Lebanese displaced by a war it had pulled the country into. Still, the political posturing from a group whose founding principle is resisting Israeli occupation reflects Hezbollah’s current weakened state.
After 14 months of fighting, the Shiite Muslim group’s military ranks are battered, and its loyal support base is weary. Its patron Iran has also been weakened by Israel, casting doubt over Tehran’s ability to provide millions of dollars for rebuilding the homes of Hezbollah supporters in Lebanon, as it did after Hezbollah’s monthlong war with Israel in 2006.
And in neighboring Syria, rebels toppled an Iran ally, the dictator Bashar al-Assad, cutting off Hezbollah’s land bridge for receiving weapons and cash from Iran.
These blows have loosened Hezbollah’s once iron grasp on political power in Lebanon, shifting the country’s political sands for the first time in decades. This month, Lebanese lawmakers elected a new president, Mr. Aoun, after years of political gridlock that many analysts had attributed to Hezbollah. Days later, lawmakers named Mr. Salam, a prominent diplomat whom Hezbollah had long opposed, as prime minister.
In a country where for years no major political decision had been made without Hezbollah’s blessing, those developments underscored just how much ground the group has lost.
But Middle East experts have warned against writing off Hezbollah’s political weight. And if Israel continues to occupy Lebanon, it could revitalize the group’s mostly Shiite Muslim support base as it looks for a patron and protector against Israeli forces.
“I believe neither parties have an interest in resuming the war,” said Sami Nader, the director of the Institute of Political Science at Saint Joseph University of Beirut. “But as long as Israel is occupying Lebanon, it’s reviving the narrative of Hezbollah.”
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