Mexico Responds to Trump’s First Moves

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The highlights this week: Mexico begins to respond to U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats, Colombia’s “total peace” strategy breaks down in parts of the country, and Brazil names the next COP leadership team.

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True to his campaign rhetoric, the first days of U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term have featured Latin America prominently. Trump mentioned Panama six times in his inaugural address, echoing his previous threats to try to regain control of the Panama Canal. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will take his first foreign trip to Panama and other Central American and Caribbean countries next week.

Most of Trump’s initial concrete actions toward the region came in the form of U.S. immigration policy, especially at the U.S.-Mexico border.

The administration lifted a restriction on arresting migrants at churches and schools, shut down an app that allowed certain asylum-seekers to book appointments, and ordered the resumption of the “remain in Mexico” policy, under which some asylum-seekers were required to wait in Mexico for their U.S. immigration court hearings.

Another Trump administration directive this week aimed to completely shut down the right to asylum at the U.S. border. Agents were told to immediately expel migrants even if they sought asylum, CBS reported on Wednesday, with very few exceptions for “life-threatening” situations.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has pushed back against some of the new U.S. migration plans. But she has signaled cooperation with others—perhaps an acknowledgement of Trump’s 25 percent tariff threat on Mexican goods.

The United States cannot deport people to a country if it does not agree to take them back. Sheinbaum has said that Mexico will accept deported Mexican citizens and even those of other nationalities, aiming to eventually repatriate them. That group could include migrants from countries that have strained diplomatic relations with the United States, such as Cuba and Venezuela.

Sheinbaum, however, stopped short of agreeing to accept foreign asylum-seekers as part of the resumption of “remain in Mexico,” she told reporters on Wednesday. Mexico’s foreign minister had spoken to Rubio the day before.

In a sign that Latin American countries are seeking to coordinate their stances on immigration policy, envoys from 10 countries met in Mexico City last week and released a joint declaration calling for the respect of international law and pledging “close communication.” Without naming the United States, the declaration called for a “humanistic approach … in the face of the threat of mass deportations.”

Mexico has also staffed its U.S. consulates with immigration lawyers and launched an app for both documented and undocumented Mexican immigrants in the United States. It details their rights and allows them to alert emergency contacts and consular staff if they think that they might be detained by U.S. authorities.

Beyond immigration, Mexico agreed last Friday to expand its existing free trade deal with the European Union. The new agreement will remove tariffs on agricultural products and ease companies’ abilities to bid on public contracts in partner countries. It also facilitates trade in services, while the previous deal was focused on industrial goods.

As with last December’s Mercosur-EU deal, Trump’s protectionist threats were a key factor in pushing the Mexico-EU deal across the finish line. Mexico is also seeking to expand its trade relationships with the United Arab Emirates and Brazil, the country’s economy minister and foreign minister said recently.

Like the deal with Mercosur, the revamped Mexico-EU agreement still needs to be approved by legislatures on both sides. For now, it stands as a symbol that Mexico is diversifying its partners as its northern neighbor grows more unpredictable.

Week of Jan. 27: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio begins a trip to Panama, Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic.

Saturday, Feb. 1: U.S. President Donald Trump has suggested that he might impose 25 percent tariffs on all goods imported from Mexico and Canada on this date.

U.S.-Cuba policy whiplash. Days after the Biden administration lifted Cuba’s state sponsor of terrorism designation, Trump reversed the move via executive order on his first day in office. Trump slapped the label on Cuba as part of his so-called maximum pressure campaign during his first term.

This quick about-face leaves some uncertainties. Former President Joe Biden’s measure was part of a reported deal with Cuban authorities to release detainees from Cuban prisons. More than 500 people had been slated for release, Havana said last week; human rights groups said that only around 150 were freed by the time of Trump’s executive action, many only on parole.

The Cuban government did not immediately comment about how it would handle the situation going forward. The Catholic Church helped negotiate the prisoner releases, offering them potential sticking power even after Trump’s move.

COP30 announcement. Brazil named the team heading up its leadership of this year’s United Nations climate conference, which is scheduled for November. Diplomat André Corrêa do Lago will serve as president and environment ministry official Ana Toni will be executive director.

Corrêa do Lago is well known in climate diplomacy circles, having represented Brazil at several past conferences. He is also the first COP president in three years who does not have a background working at a state oil company. Brazilian Indigenous and environmental groups celebrated the appointments, saying they anticipated working to make sure their demands are heard at the conference.

Civil society is expected to participate more in this year’s conference than in the previous three years, when COP was held in Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Azerbaijan—countries that are less democratic than Brazil.

Vacation visitors. Not for the first time, Argentines’ changing spending habits point to the country’s economic troubles. In 2023, sky-high year-over-year inflation of more than 100 percent produced a restaurant boom as Argentines tried to spend money before it lost value. Now, President Javier Milei’s economic reforms have reduced inflation but increased the value of the Argentine peso relative to other currencies, such as Brazil’s real.

That has produced a reversal in the two countries’ holiday vacation flows. Usually, well-off Brazilian vacationers flock to Argentina for more affordable rental homes during the South American summer months. But this year, it is Argentines who are crowding southern Brazilian beach towns.

Cross-cultural travel sometimes prompts the diffusion of music and fashion trends. This year, however, many Argentines have become fans of Brazil’s instant bank-to-bank payment system, known as Pix. Pix is the “new passion of Argentine tourists on holiday in Brazil,” according to newspaper O Sul.

In which Brazilian city will COP30 take place?

Manaus

Belém

Rio de Janeiro

São Paulo

That’s Bethlehem in Portuguese. Christian colonists named the city, which is located where the Amazon River meets the Atlantic Ocean.

On Monday, Colombian President Gustavo Petro declared an emergency in the country’s Catatumbo region, which borders Venezuela, where clashes between guerrilla forces killed at least 80 people in just a few days. The violence prompted an estimated 32,000 people to flee their homes.

For much of Petro’s administration, security policy focused on reducing violence through talks and cease-fires with armed groups, including one party involved in the Catatumbo violence: the National Liberation Army (ELN). Petro dubbed the strategy “total peace.” But Bogotá suspended talks with the ELN last Friday for the second time in a year, with Petro accusing the ELN of “war crimes” in Catatumbo and saying that the group “has no will for peace.”

The ELN is fighting with a group called 33rd Front as part of an effort to take over more territory in the Colombia-Venezuela border region, political scientist Luis Fernando Trejos told Caracol radio on Tuesday. The 33rd Front split from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) over the FARC’s 2016 peace deal with the government.

On Tuesday, Petro acknowledged that his government had “failed” to contain violence in Catatumbo. For weeks, security experts and the government’s own public defender’s office have warned that an escalation could be brewing in the region.

For many analysts, the fighting points to broader failures in Petro’s “total peace” strategy. Though his administration pushed forward with ELN negotiations, it lacked a backup plan, political scientist Jorge Mantilla argued in La Silla Vacía.

“I’m convinced that working toward peace in a territory-based strategy is the right path,” political scientist María Victoria Llorente, of the Ideas for Peace Foundation, told Caracol. “The problem is doing it without a method, without organization, without any strategy.”

By Wednesday, Colombian Interior Minister Juan Fernando Cristo announced that the government was sending security forces and social workers to the region. But it was not immediately clear when the tens of thousands of Colombians who fled could return to their homes.

To make matters more complicated, Colombia’s foreign minister resigned on Monday, presumably to prepare to run in the country’s 2026 presidential election. Skilled diplomacy is key to dealing with the ELN, which enjoys a permissive stance from the Venezuelan government. Petro replaced the outgoing foreign minister with his chief of staff, 30-year-old Laura Sarabia.

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