One year has passed since Moscow accused Kyiv of shooting down a Russian military plane carrying dozens of Ukrainian prisoners of war. Ukraine opened an investigation, but has yet to release its findings, leaving questions about who was killed, and why.
The crash of the IL-76 transport plane in the Belgorod region of Russia, near the border with Ukraine, set off a series of recriminations at a delicate moment for Kyiv, as it lobbied for Western aid to build up its depleted weapons stocks.
Russian officials called it a “terrorist” act and convened an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council. Ukrainian officials did not admit or deny shooting down the aircraft, and said they could not confirm that Ukrainian prisoners were on board. American officials later assessed that Ukrainian forces had used a U.S.-made Patriot missile to shoot it down, thinking the plane carried Russian missiles and munitions.
“We have many questions about the situation,” Sofia Sobolyeva, who believes her father was on the plane, said in a recent interview.
With the families of the prisoners still awaiting answers, here’s what we know about the crash one year on.
Conflicting Accounts
Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Jan. 24, 2024 that one of its military transports had been shot down while en route to Belgorod for a prisoner swap. It said the plane was carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war and that no one survived the crash.
Initially, Ukraine asserted its right to target Russian military transport planes in the border area, which had been a staging ground for the 2022 invasion and was used to mount attacks after that. At the time of the crash, deadly Russian missile strikes had been pounding Kharkiv, just across the border in Ukraine, and Kyiv stressed the need to hinder those attacks.
Soon, though, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency hinted at the possibility of a tragic mistake, not directly acknowledging Ukraine had downed the plane but offering explanations for how it might have happened. One Ukrainian official said the IL-76, often used to carry freight, had previously been used to deliver ammunition and missiles, suggesting that it was a legitimate target.
The agency acknowledged a prisoner swap had been planned for Jan. 24 — but said Russia had not warned Ukraine that prisoners were being flown to Belgorod’s airport, as was the case in previous exchanges. Russian officials disputed that account, saying Ukraine’s military had been notified.
The diverging claims illustrated the persistent lack of clarity that has become a defining feature of the war. Both sides have pushed their preferred narratives over nearly three years of fighting, and been reluctant to disclose or acknowledge setbacks.
Calls for investigation
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine called for his country’s intelligence agency to determine what had happened and for an international investigation into the crash. He accused Russia of “playing with the lives of Ukrainian prisoners, the feelings of their loved ones and the emotions of our society.”
Ukraine’s domestic intelligence agency opened an investigation into the incident.
Russian officials said the plane had crashed in a snowy field near a settlement in the Korochansky district. No independent groups were able to visit the crash site; Ukraine requested that the Red Cross and United Nations be granted access.
Satellite images and unverified Russian video captured what appeared to be the crash site and debris of a plane in the area Russia described, but it was not possible to identify passengers from the imagery.
Ukrainian officials asked for patience from citizens while they investigated Moscow’s claims.
Identifying the victims
Prisoner exchanges have occurred regularly throughout the war, even amid bitter fighting. But the Ukrainian authorities typically do not disclose, even to families, the names of those set to be released before exchanges.
The Russian authorities did not identify the victims of the crash when they announced it. But the names of 65 prisoners of war allegedly on board were shared on social media by the editor in chief of RT, the Russian state media broadcaster,
A few days later, the Ukrainian government agency that oversees prisoners of war confirmed that the names on the list matched those who were set to be exchanged on the day of the crash. But the agency said it did not have evidence to confirm that those prisoners were aboard the plane, or even that they were dead.
That was around the time, Sofia Sobolyeva said, that her family received a phone call from the military requesting a meeting. Ms. Sobolyeva’s father had been in Russian captivity since March 2022 — shortly after the start of the war — and his name was on the list.
“They gathered us and explained the situation but did not answer any questions,” she said. The authorities pledged to investigate “quickly,” she said, and asked relatives to submit DNA.
A break in the case
The case dropped from the headlines for months. An exchange of remains in early November was the first sign of a potential break.
The International Committee of the Red Cross confirmed it was present for a Nov. 8 transfer of remains. Russia said the transfer included the remains of 65 killed in the downing of the IL-76, but that claim could not be independently verified.
“I.C.R.C. did not take part in the identification process,” the agency said this week in response to questions, adding that it stood ready to assist the authorities with technical support.
Ms. Sobolyeva said that the families of the 65, who had formed a WhatsApp group, learned about the transfer and were told by the Ukrainian authorities that “time was needed for DNA expertise.”
Outstanding questions
Ukraine’s general prosecutor and security service did not respond to questions from The New York Times about the status of the investigation or whether any remains had been identified.
But there appears to be little dispute over who downed the plane.
Russia’s defense ministry had accused Ukrainian forces of launching missiles from the nearby Kharkiv region of Ukraine that struck the aircraft. American officials briefed on the incident later said that Ukraine used a Patriot air defense missile to down the plane.
While Ukraine has not formally accepted responsibility, Ms. Sobolyeva said that’s beside the point now.
“Logically, we understand that Ukraine shot it down,” she said, even though “officially we have nothing.
What she’s less sure about is whether the families will ever have answers to their other questions — like how it happened, and why.
She described her father as a kind man with “golden hands” — able to fix anything that broke — who loved gardening.
“There was a lot of stress and tears, but I still can’t understand what happened,” Ms. Sobolyeva said one recent evening.
“Now,” she added, “I just wear his black hat, so I feel warmer — both mentally and physically.”
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