Jamie Dettmer is opinion editor at POLITICO Europe.
WASHINGTON — “Is that a joke?”
That was U.S. President Joe Biden’s response when asked whether it was him or President-elect Donald Trump who should take a bow for the cease-fire-for-hostages deal between Israel and Hamas.
Indeed, Trump was quick to assert he was the crucial force behind the deal, claiming credit before Biden had even opened his mouth: “This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November, as it signaled to the entire World that my Administration would seek Peace and negotiate deals to ensure the safety of all Americans, and our Allies,” he wrote on his social media site Truth Social.
The deal bringing an end to the 15-month conflict in Gaza still may unravel, of course. But with the Israeli cabinet now set to cast its vote, all signs point toward approval — unless, that is, key hard-right member of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition Bezalel Smotrich abruptly threatens to quit.
But Trump’s determination to claim the breakthrough as his own sticks in the craw for Biden and his aides. As far as the president is concerned, the deal is within “the precise contours” of a plan he set out in May, and was relentlessly pushed by the likes of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Mideast envoy Brett McGurk, as well as by Qatari and Egyptian mediators. Biden’s team simply invited Trump officials to join in the effort as they would inherit any deal that was struck.
So, who’s right? Was this a Biden or Trump win?
Truth is, Biden aides have been tireless in their efforts to wrestle Netanyahu and Hamas’ leadership into an agreement. And at various times over the past 15 months, they really believed they were close — only for everything to fall apart. Almost a year ago, in February, Biden told reporters he was hopeful there would be a deal struck very soon. And again, in the run-up to the Democratic convention, U.S. officials said agreement was near. But each time, they were frustrated.
What really appears to have shifted the dynamic, however, was a Jan. 7 remark by Trump, coupled with a very aggressive push by his soon-to-be special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff — at least that’s the view of former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and several seasoned observers of the region.
“All hell will break out. If those hostages aren’t back, I don’t want to hurt your negotiation, if they’re not back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East,” Trump told reporters.
At the time, most commentators took the warning to be directed at Hamas and scoffed at the threat. After all, what more could Trump do against Hamas that Netanyahu hadn’t done already? The Palestinian militant group lost its top military commanders, including Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar, and its ranks have been devastated.
But it wasn’t really Hamas that Trump was addressing.
“It wasn’t a warning to Hamas. It was a warning to Netanyahu. To Bibi,” Steve Bannon, Trump’s former chief strategist, told POLITICO. A senior Israeli official, who asked to remain anonymous as they aren’t authorized to talk with the media, agreed that was how Netanyahu read it as well.
And when asked by POLITICO why the Israeli prime minister now appeared ready to agree to a deal he’d dismissed before, Olmert simply said:“Because he’s afraid of Trump.”
Olmert and Bannon aren’t alone in their view either. No one disputes that the context of the negotiations has changed recently. “The humanitarian toll in Gaza and Hezbollah’s decision to ink a separate cease-fire deal with Israel in November made Hamas more flexible,” noted Hugh Lovatt and Muhammad Shehada of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Most decisive, however, appears to be pressure from the incoming Trump administration on Netanyahu to accept the deal.”
For Sanam Vakil of Chatham House, “Donald Trump’s pressure tactics and warnings to Hamas and Israel” were effective in reviving the drawn-out negotiations. “The Biden administration proved unwilling to exert adequate pressure on Israel’s leadership,” he said.
Frustrated Arab leaders and their officials had been imploring Biden to do so for months. But Biden and his aides were reluctant — most likely for fear that it would have cost their party Jewish-American votes and political donations ahead of the election. And they were seemingly wary of giving Republicans the opportunity to argue that Democrats were deserting America’s key Middle East ally.
But the pressure coming from Trump finally allowed Netanyahu to overcome the doubts of some in his rambunctious right-wing coalition, and to brave the opposition of hard-right cabinet members Itamar Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, who have contributed to the scuppering of past Gaza peace proposals. (Smotrich has dubbed the agreement “bad and dangerous to Israel’s national security” but, at the time of writing, has held off explicitly threatening to quit.) Netanyahu also feared crossing Trump might wreck other things he hopes to get backing for , including even tougher action against Iran and protection from Arab pressure for serious steps toward a two-state solution.
Witkoff, who was in Doha alongside McGurk for negotiations last week, had no qualms playing hardball with the Israeli leader. Flying into Tel Aviv to discuss the deal with Netanyahu last Saturday, Witkoff was brusque when told the Israeli leader was observing the Sabbath and couldn’t meet until the evening, brushing off the objection in “salty” terms.
And according to Israeli newspaper Haaretz, it prompted Netanyahu to break Sabbath and go meet him — all so that Trump could close the deal.
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