If North Korea’s current casualty rate holds, it would take three more months for Pyongyang to lose all of its estimated 12,000 troops deployed to fight Ukraine, per an estimate by researchers from the Institute for the Study of War.
Analysts at the Washington-based think tank cited casualty reports from Ukraine and South Korea, as well as Russian military bloggers who said that North Korean troops were actively participating in significant combat in December.
“North Korean have therefore likely suffered roughly 92 casualties per day since starting to participate in significant fighting in early December 2024,” they wrote in an assessment published on Thursday.
The think tank said that “the entirety of this North Korean contingent in Kursk Oblast may be killed or wounded in roughly 12 weeks (about mid-April 2025) should North Korean forces continue to suffer similarly high casualty rates in the future.”
The analysts wrote that Pyongyang’s losses will likely involve more wounded troops than those killed in action, which they said is “typical or armed conflict.”
“And it is unclear if or when injured North Korean soldiers return to combat,” the think tank’s assessment said.
A South Korean lawmaker, Lee Sung-kwon, said on Monday that Seoul’s intelligence service estimated that about 300 North Korean soldiers had been killed in action in Kursk, with another 2,700 wounded.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in early January that North Korean losses in Kursk had reached up to 3,800 wounded or killed.
“12,000 has arrived. Today, 3,800 killed or wounded,” he told podcaster Lex Fridman.
The US also gave its estimate for North Korean casualties in December, saying that Pyongyang likely suffered 1,000 killed or wounded in its first week of engaging in significant combat.
“We now assess that North Korean forces are conducting massed — massed, dismounted assaults against Ukrainian positions in Kursk,” White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said on December 27.
Russia’s defense ministry press team did not respond to a request for comment sent outside regular business hours by Business Insider.
Western and South Korean intelligence officials have said that the roughly 12,000 North Korean troops deployed in Kursk are likely from the Storm Corps.
The elite branch of soldiers is considered North Korea’s version of special forces, and estimates have varied as to how many are fielded by Pyongyang. One of the highest counts, by South Korea’s Defense Ministry in 2022, put the Storm Corps at up to 200,000 strong.
Questions remain as to whether Kim Jong Un may send more troops to Russia’s aid if manpower on the frontline runs dry. Quantity has been vital for both Ukraine and Russia — from troops to artillery to ammo — as the war looks to drag into its fourth year.
North Korea has an estimated 1.2 million soldiers in its armed forces, though they have barely any combat experience. Pyongyang is known to instead often rely on its troops for building infrastructure projects.
Still, Zelenskyy warned in early January of the possibility that North Korea could send up to half a million troops to aid Russia. But Pyongyang isn’t giving its troops away for free — Kim is receiving food, technological expertise, and economic assistance from Russia in exchange.
Ukraine and South Korea reported in November that Russia was also paying Kim a stipend for each North Korean soldier deployed in Kursk. Seoul’s intelligence said at the time that the cost was about $2,000 per man.
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