This weekend’s divisional round of the NFL playoffs features two quarterbacks in remarkably similar positions. Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills and Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens are the leading MVP candidates this season.
Both signal callers are seeking their first Super Bowl appearances as they have both been unable to get past Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs. They are also dual threats: Jackson led all quarterbacks this year with 915 rushing yards. Allen was fifth with 531.
The two face each other Sunday in arguably the marquee game of the weekend, which also features the Chiefs hosting the Houston Texans and the Detroit Lions and the Washington Commanders on Saturday. Sunday’s other contest is between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Los Angeles Rams.
With a multitude of storylines to watch, NBC News’ Rohan Nadkarni and Andrew Grief and NBC Sports’ Patrick Daugherty are here to break it down from every angle.
Lamar Jackson faces Josh Allen on Sunday night. Who is your NFL MVP?
Nadkarni: I feel pretty confident in saying Jackson is the MVP, and it’s not a particularly difficult decision. That’s not to say it isn’t close or that Allen doesn’t have a good case. At the same time, Jackson has more passing yards, a higher completion percentage, more passing touchdowns, fewer interceptions, more rushing yards and more total touchdowns. The Bills’ superior record does not matter to me, because the AFC East was not very good. And while Derrick Henry has been a boon to the Ravens’ backfield, it’s not like every quarterback who played with him puts up Lamar numbers.
Greif: I think this is a true toss-up, and it must be acknowledged, too, that the presence of Henry at running back made Jackson’s job easier. And yet Jackson, to me, pulled off something no other MVP candidate did — dramatically improve upon what was already an elite skill set. Already a two-time MVP, Jackson this season looked like a completely different passer. His percentage of on-target passes was 8 percentage points higher than his career average; he threw a career-high number of passes yet threw a career-low four interceptions, and even then, none of those interceptions could be attributed to a poor throw or decision by Jackson.
Daugherty: It’s Jackson. I’m sympathetic to the idea that it’s a bit crazy Jackson could end up with his third MVP while Allen has zero, but just as players can only play the game in front of them, voters can only vote the season in front of them. Jackson somehow ascended to his most stratospheric statistical heights yet this season, achieving ludicrous levels of efficiency while, you know, leading the league with 47 total touchdowns. The Ravens averaged 6.85 yards per play, the second most in NFL history.
Jackson’s past MVP wins and “fairness” shouldn’t really matter. Was he the best player or not? His statistical case is unassailable, and the Bills’ one extra regular-season victory is hardly enough to swing the argument in Allen’s favor, especially since Jackson’s Ravens roughed the Bills up in their head-to-head matchup. Despite their MVP disparity, you could still argue Allen has had the better career. You can’t argue who had the better season.
What team do you feel differently about after the wild-card round?
Greif: The Rams. By the eye test and statistics, their defense profiled as one that might struggle. And the team was playing only days after wildfires devastated Los Angeles, not far from where the team practices. Instead, their pressure and focus absolutely wrecked Minnesota. Dismiss coach Sean McVay’s playoff chances at your own peril.
Daugherty: The Rams. You can debate whether the Rams’ wild-card roughhousing of the Vikings said more about the winner or loser. What is inarguable is that it was yet another playoff game where McVay looked like the most prepared coach this side of Bill Belichick. Relentlessly exploiting the Vikings’ weaknesses while leaning on his strengths, McVay took the approach every coach espouses but few achieve: one play at a time. As the Rams stacked victories one by one, the Vikings spiraled out of control, having no answer for McVay’s game-planning mastery. This is far from McVay’s best squad. It’s also his first without Aaron Donald. It has still proven it deserves “any given Sunday” respect thanks to its deep well of experience and unmatched preparation.
Nadkarni: I picked the Rams to upset the Vikings in this space last week, and even still I’m marveling at the performance they had in the wild-card round. Los Angeles flat-out dominated on both sides of the ball. Watching the Rams’ defensive line against the Eagles’ offensive line is the matchup of the divisional round for me. Los Angeles wasn’t particularly elite during the season in terms of pass-rush win rate, and yet its defensive line mounted pressure on Sam Darnold even when rushing only four. If the Rams can get ahead early and make Jalen Hurts uncomfortable in the pocket, that game becomes a lot more interesting.
Which underdog this weekend has the best chance at an upset?
Daugherty: The Rams. The Eagles forced four turnovers against the Packers and still won only 22-10. It was a one-score game for the first half of the fourth quarter. It was the same story for several months: dominating defense, questionable offense. That’s not great news with McVay’s opportunistic Rams headed for Philly.
The Eagles feasted on Jordan Love’s inexperience and the Packers’ nerves. That’s not going to be an option vs. Los Angeles. When the Eagles’ offense is humming, the Rams are not capable of winning a shootout. We saw that in Philly’s 37-20 victory in Week 12. When Jalen Hurts is struggling and the defense can focus all of its attention on Saquon Barkley, however, the calculus quickly changes. If it’s another 13 completions for 121 yards kind of day for the Eagles’ quarterback, McVay’s Rams will be well-positioned for their second straight upset.
Nadkarni: Picking the Bills — a very slim underdog at home — feels like cheating. So I’m going to make an argument on behalf of the Houston Texans. Look, the Texans didn’t exactly wow anyone in the wild-card round when they won a wacky game against the Los Angeles Chargers. But Houston’s defense is absolutely ferocious, with a defensive line and a secondary that wreaks havoc on opposing offenses. Several quarterbacks have looked awful against the Texans this year. And C.J. Stroud, despite his so-so sophomore year, is still proving to be a game changer at the position. Add all this to the Chiefs’ very long layoff and their own offensive malaise this season, and I’m at least expecting a tight game because of Houston’s defense.
Greif: At one point this week the Bills were a slight underdog, but as a team that finished 8-0 at home and has beaten the top seeds in each conference, they don’t feel like much of an underdog against Baltimore, even though the Ravens have already beaten Buffalo once this season.
Underrated storyline you’re watching
Nadkarni: Can a storyline be underrated if you wrote about it? I will have my eye on the fourth-down attempts between the Lions and the Commanders, though, because I believe the aggressive natures of both teams are going to play a massive role Saturday. Washington went for it on fourth down five times against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, while Detroit has been the face of fourth-down aggression since Dan Campbell took over in 2021. Will either of these coaches blink in a big moment? Could the game turn on a failed fourth-down attempt? That will be the game-within-the-game when these teams face off, and it should add a decent dose of drama.
Greif: When Houston faces Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, can its defense make life miserable for yet another top quarterback? Already this season the Texans’ scheme has led Buffalo’s Allen to post a career-worst completion percentage, Detroit’s Jared Goff to throw five interceptions and Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa to throw three interceptions and lose a fumble. The latest data point came in Houston’s wild-card playoff victory last week against the Chargers, when Justin Herbert was intercepted four times — the same Herbert who had thrown three interceptions in his previous 17 games.
Daugherty: You would think the two-time defending Super Bowl champions’ beginning their quest for a threepeat as 15-2 home favorites would be the storyline of the divisional round. Alas, the Chiefs find themselves well behind the Bills and Ravens’ “game of the century” and the Lions’ hunt for the first Super Bowl title in franchise history. So I’ll ask: Can the Chiefs win convincingly after an anything but convincing 2024?
Because let’s be real: The Chiefs are going to win. The only question is if they will do so in a fashion that actually makes them favorites for the AFC championship game. You can lean on your “championship pedigree” when you are grinding out regular season victories over the Chargers and the Steelers. The same is true for the Texans in the divisional round. But Baltimore or Buffalo with the Lamar Hunt Trophy on the line? We are going to need to see some proof it’s possible this Saturday.
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