Orange juice from Florida. Whiskey from Tennessee. Peanut butter from Kentucky.
Canada is preparing for an all-out trade war with its closest ally and biggest trading partner, and the list of American goods that could be affected is long.
Canadian officials are preparing a three-stage plan of retaliatory tariffs and other trade restrictions against the United States, which will be put into motion if President-elect Donald J. Trump makes good on his threat to impose a blanket 25 percent tariff on all Canadian goods imported into the United States.
Canadian officials will wait until Mr. Trump has made his move — which he has said will be on his first day in office, Monday — and then start with imposing tariffs. They would mostly affect consumer goods worth 37 billion Canadian dollars ($25.6 billion), according to two senior government officials familiar with the plans.
They spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss details of plans meant to remain private for now.
Goal: Maximum political pain
The Canadian officials said their choice of goods was meant to be precisely targeted and aimed at political impact. They specifically want to focus on goods made in Republican or swing states, where the pain of tariffs, like pressure on jobs and the bottom lines of local businesses, would affect Trump allies.
Canada’s government hopes that those allies, including governors or members of Congress, would then pick up the phone and call Mr. Trump, intervening in favor of de-escalation.
Mélanie Joly, Canada’s foreign minister, who spent Thursday and Friday in Washington, met with a slew of Republicans to make her country’s case, including Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Senator Jim Risch of Idaho, and the Senate majority leader, John Thune of South Dakota.
Ms. Joly said she hoped her outreach to senior Republicans would persuade them to intervene to avert or limit a trade war and its negative impact on consumers and jobs on both sides of the border.
“My job here is to be able to talk about facts, and that comes before any threat of counter tariffs from our side,” Ms. Joly said in an interview with The Times on Thursday. “Because then the senators might say, ‘Well, why are we doing this? Why are we imposing tariffs? It’s affecting my own constituency.’”
But, she added, Canada was ready to forcefully defend its interests if necessary. “Never underestimate Canadians,’’ she said. “We fight very hard, and we’re very courageous. We are willing to be surgical and appropriate to have an impact on American jobs.”
Bracing for Mr. Trump’s first day in office and what it might bring for Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his cabinet will be huddled together on Monday and Tuesday in what some are calling their “U.S. war room,” in order to be able to respond swiftly if U.S. tariffs are announced.
The detailed list of goods is closely held, but it includes dozens of consumer goods from various categories, such as food and beverages, as well as other types of daily products, including dishwashers and porcelain goods like bathtubs and toilets.
Depending on what Canadian goods Mr. Trump chooses to impose tariffs on, and the level of those tariffs, Canada’s second move would be to expand its own tariffs to more American products, impacting 150 billion Canadian dollars’ worth of imports from the United States.
As part of its strategy, the Canadian government is also looking at other measures that would restrict the export of Canadian goods to the United States, such as export quotas or duties to be shouldered by the American side. That type of measure would be reserved for particularly sensitive Canadian exports that the U.S. relies on, such as hydroelectric power from Quebec used to provide energy across New England.
Tariffs work more like a tax on goods and are usually passed on to consumers. They make imported goods more expensive, and that often means consumers stop buying them, ultimately hurting the foreign companies exporting them.
Trade restrictions like export quotas aim to limit the availability of an exported good, and are particularly effective when an importing nation doesn’t have easily accessible or sufficient alternative sources for that good.
Back from the brink
No matter how Canada’s counter tariffs or export restrictions are deployed, the goal will be the same: to pressure the Trump administration to step back from the President-elect’s vow to launch a devastating trade war on the United States’ neighbor.
The trading relationship between the two countries is enormous, with nearly one trillion dollars in goods exchanged every year. The two nations are each other’s top trading partner.
Some cross-border industries are so integrated that tariffs would suddenly pose a major regulatory headache for many companies. A single vehicle, for example, crosses the U.S.-Canadian border up to eight times before it is fully assembled. Tariffs would immediately disrupt auto assembly lines across the United States and in Ontario, the auto industry’s heart in Canada.
And Canada exports vital commodities to the United States. Some 80 percent of Canada’s oil and 60 percent of its natural gas are exported to the United States. More than half of the oil imported into the United States comes from Canada.
A third and final level of escalation if a trade war between the U.S. and Canada escalates and which the Canadian government is eager to avoid would restrict the export of sensitive commodities worth hundreds of billions of dollars, including oil and gas, potash, uranium and critical minerals. All are exports that are crucial to the United States
Alberta, Canada’s oil-exporting powerhouse, has said it does not support measures that would impact its key industry. The rift between the province’s leadership and the rest of the country could become more consequential if Canada decides oil must be used as leverage against the United States.
Canada’s planning for a potentially prolonged U.S. trade war also includes supporting domestic industries, according to one of the senior officials.
The government is preparing for the possibility of financial bailouts for Canadian businesses that are badly hit by the U.S. tariffs, most likely on a case-by-case basis, the official said.
While mass bailouts or blanket funding for entire industries may not be on the table, the official said it would be unthinkable to allow a tariff war with the United States to wipe out thousands of jobs and businesses without the government stepping in to mitigate the blow.
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