The United States population is projected to grow more slowly than previously anticipated over the next three decades, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
In its latest forecast, the CBO reduced its 30-year projection by 11 million people, estimating a population of 372 million by 2055.
Why It Matters
In its 2025 report, the CBO highlighted a significant slowdown in population growth compared to historical norms. The new annual growth rate is expected to average just 0.2 percent over the next 30 years––less than a quarter of the rate recorded between 1975 and 2024.
According to the report, this decline is driven by a lower fertility rate, now projected to average 1.60 births per woman over the next three decades. This is well below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman required to maintain a stable population without immigration.
What to Know
Without sustained immigration, the U.S. population is projected to start shrinking by 2033.
The U.S. population was estimated at 341 million on January 1, 2025, and is expected to reach 350 million by the end of the year. The CBO’s forecasts include not only residents but also U.S. citizens and others living abroad who are eligible for federal benefits. The Census Bureau, which focuses only on the resident population, has historically issued lower projections than the CBO.
Birth and immigration rates are both crucial factors. International migration is currently expected to add one person to the U.S. population every 23.2 seconds, according to Census Bureau data. However, the combined effects of policy and demographic trends have tempered earlier expectations.
The reduced projections also account for the effects of immigration policy. The CBO noted that a June 2024 proclamation suspending asylum processing at the border under certain conditions has contributed to fewer immigrants entering the U.S. Compared to its projections last year, the CBO now anticipates lower immigration levels, further slowing population growth.
The global population, meanwhile, continues to grow at a faster pace. The Census Bureau reported a 71 million-person increase worldwide in 2024, bringing the global population to over 8 billion as of New Year’s Day 2025. People are also living for longer––America’s aging population is reflected in these statistics.
What People Are Saying
“Net immigration becomes an increasingly important source of population growth. Without immigration, the population would shrink beginning in 2033, in part because fertility rates are projected to remain too low for a generation to replace itself,” the CBO report reads.
Prior to the release of this information, Karoline Leavitt, Trump-Vance transition spokeswoman, told Newsweek: “President Trump will enlist every federal power and coordinate with state authorities to institute the largest deportation operation of illegal criminals, drug dealers and human traffickers in American history while simultaneously lowering costs for families and strengthening our workforce.”
What Happens Next
The CBO’s population projections inform critical fiscal and economic decisions, including the sustainability of Social Security and federal budgets. Policymakers face increasing pressure to address low fertility rates, make starting families more economically viable and adapt immigration policies to offset demographic challenges.
This article includes reporting from The Associated Press
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