BERLIN — Ahead of a federal election he’s likely to lose, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is being whipsawed by an effort to approve a €3 billion military aid package that is crucial for Kyiv but could harm him politically.
The proposed package has been delayed by what Scholz’s party colleague Defense Minister Boris Pistorius called a “fiscal problem,” although he said he’s “optimistic” it can be resolved before the Feb. 23 election.
However, the political obstacles to getting the package passed will be difficult to overcome during a fraught campaign.
Faced with accusations he’s putting the brakes on further aid to Ukraine, Scholz said tough conversations need to be had if the military support package — the largest yet from any ally — can be confirmed over the coming days.
“I had suggested expanding [military aid] at some point,” Scholz said of Ukraine aid on the campaign trail this week. “But if you do that, you also have to say where the money is coming from.”
Scholz, whose Social Democratic Party (SPD) is in third place in the polls with 15 percent support, said he’s against cutting pensions, local government finance and road investment to get more weapons to Kyiv.
Speaking on national TV on Wednesday, Scholz said he would only agree to the package if new debt is issued to fund it — a challenge to other parties that insist on limiting borrowing. “We will finance this separately through loans,” Scholz said, calling on other parties to “overcome their reservations” around debt.
He’s also aware that ramping up deliveries is unpopular with insurgent parties on both the far right and the left of German politics.
However, mainstream parties, including senior figures in both the Greens and Free Democrats as well as the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), say they want to get moving on the aid.
According to Agnieszka Brugger, a senior Greens lawmaker on the Bundestag’s defense committee, the package “should have been submitted to the ministry of finance long ago, according to the original plan.”
Tough topic
With his party polling at less than half the CDU/CSU and also trailing the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), military support for Ukraine carries potential political costs for Scholz.
Last week, Der Spiegel reported that Scholz has been blocking the military package. Many core SPD voters are leery of the war and of anti-Russia measures.
That also puts Scholz at odds with Friedrich Merz’s CDU.
“If our support for Ukraine weakens, then this war will last longer. If it is consistent, then it will end sooner,” Merz said last month.
The current caution over the aid package clashes with Scholz’s earlier strong support for arming Ukraine; Germany has given 16 percent of all aid to Kyiv, second only to the United States.
The standoff over the €3 billion package meant Pistorius showed up in Kyiv earlier this week with very little to offer.
He did promise to deliver 60 more interceptor missiles for the German-made IRIS-T air defense system, even though the €60 million financing has not yet been clarified, according to the German news agency dpa.
Despite cross-party support, Guntram Wolff, who tracks defense spending at the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, said he doubts the sign-off will happen before Feb. 23.
“Even procedurally that would be difficult,” he said.
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