Saudi Arabia: 1. The European Union and its allies: 0.
As the dust settles on last month’s failed United Nations negotiations to end plastic pollution, high-ambition countries in Europe and elsewhere are racking their brains for ways to stop Saudi Arabia from derailing the next round of talks, due later this year.
But as global consensus on environmental protection fractures — a trend likely to worsen under a Donald Trump United States presidency — it won’t be an easy task.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude oil exporter, was the ringleader of a group of oil-rich nations including Russia and Iran that successfully blocked efforts to limit plastic production during last month’s talks in Busan, South Korea. And there’s no reason to think they won’t try to pull the same thing this year.
“Saudi Arabia is now investing heavily in its environmental diplomacy,” said one negotiator from within the self-named high-ambition coalition, who was granted anonymity to discuss the closed-door talks. “I think there aren’t many delegations that can boast such a talented team of negotiators. [It] has the firing power.”
For nations like Saudi Arabia, whose wealth depends on oil, it’s existential. The $700-billion-per-year-and-growing plastics industry is set to become a key driver of oil demand as the world slowly switches from gas to electric modes of transport.
But a broader coalition of countries, including the EU, sees plastic pollution — which is choking the world’s oceans and waterways and finding its way as microplastics into our soil, food and bodies — as the bigger threat. They have thrown themselves into the talks in a bid to protect the environment, livelihoods and human health.
The pro-plastic army
Negotiators who have dealt with the Saudi negotiating team say it’s clear no expense was spared in putting together the experienced crew of pro-plastic avengers, which has allowed poorer oil-producing countries nervous about the plastic treaty outcomes to lean on Riyadh for direction.
Saudi Arabia has the role of “corralling the Arab group,” said the second negotiator, and “every possible technique to delay has been used.” Whenever Saudi Arabia made a point, they said, all the Gulf Cooperation Council countries would take the floor again and repeat verbatim what Saudi Arabia said. “So, you already waste one hour saying the same thing.”
Saudi Arabia had powerful allies in Iran and Russia, who also played a major role in pushing back on a more comprehensive plastic treaty. “Russia clearly has taken on the role of making interminable interventions and submitting non-papers that are nonsensical and things like that,” added the second negotiator. A third described Russia “rambling” for approximately 30 minutes nonstop in closed-door talks. Russia is the second-biggest exporter of crude oil, after Saudi Arabia.
The Saudi and Russian negotiators declined multiple requests for comment when approached by POLITICO in Busan.
Divide and conquer
Three of the negotiators POLITICO spoke to accused Saudi Arabia of trying to split the high-ambition countries by stirring up the already sensitive topic of how to finance the treaty.
“They are using that discussion to actually frame the debate — not around ambitious obligations to end plastic pollution — but around finance and some means of implementation, hoping that this would distract the whole discussion,” said the first negotiator.
Despite its wealth, Saudi Arabia took up the cause of developing countries who have been looking to developed countries specifically to pull their fingers out and “take the lead” on providing them with the financial resources needed to implement the treaty.
Financing did indeed become a major point of contention in Busan — although reducing plastic production ultimately proved more of a unifying force among high-ambition countries than the financing question divided them.
Those countries also “heard loud and clear the fact that [Saudi Arabia et al] were not willing to entertain any financial responsibility of their own” despite their role in plastic production, said the second negotiator quoted above.
Financing will remain a key sticking point this year, however, with developed and developing countries still split.
The real work starts now
If the Busan talks proved anything, it’s that strong coalitions must be built in between negotiations rather than during the five-day crunch itself. Negotiators go to U.N. talks with a mandate to defend, issued by their capitals. Changes to that mandate — even if coalitions are successfully forged during the talks — must be signed off at a high level, resulting in hurried calls back home.
“Now we are at a place where these issues of production, chemicals and financing are so clear and crisp that they can be taken to a political level,” the third negotiator said hopefully.
The talks also raise questions about the effectiveness of consensus-based environmental multilateralism — which essentially grants countries veto power. If countries remain skittish about moving to voting by majority instead, there’s little to stop Saudi Arabia from successfully employing the very same tactics it used in December at the next, as-yet-unscheduled round, some argue.
“I think countries need to get more empowered on the idea of voting, because the like-minded countries are … somehow weaponizing even the idea of consensus,” said Helionor de Anzizu of the Center for International Environmental Law.
Some high-ambition delegations are indeed preparing for a treaty without the cooperation of the most reluctant nations — should the Saudi-led faction continue to put up a fight. That would require bringing major players like Brazil, Indonesia, India and China on board, who have yet to add their names to a missive targeting plastic production signed by over 85 countries, but at the same time have been less vehemently against the idea than the likes of Saudi Arabia.
Like-minded countries and the high-ambition nations will all likely spend the coming months conducting outreach and bringing potential allies onside.
But as Trump gears up to take office, it’s a “definite possibility” that the oil-rich and plastic-producing countries will soon have a new, similarly disruptive playmate, said the second negotiator.
“At least a lot of us fear that.”
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