Russia is advancing southwest of the eastern Ukrainian stronghold of Pokrovsk, a new map shows, as Ukrainian troops in the key city risk becoming surrounded by Moscow’s forces.
Contacted on the reported advances on Monday, Ukraine’s military pointed Newsweek to its publicly available statements, but did not comment further.
Why It Matters
Moscow has been battling toward Pokrovsk for months, with Kyiv frequently reporting the fiercest fighting along the front lines to be close to the city.
The Ukrainian-held logistics hub, close to the western edge of the Donetsk region that Russia has long wanted to fully capture, has been referred to as a “fortress” settlement, key to Ukrainian defenses in the east and connected to other critical defensive cities.
Western analysts and Ukrainian officials say Russia has not fought inside the city, but has skirted around Pokrovsk to the south and advanced toward the border of Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region.
What to Know
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank, which tracks daily changes to the frontlines of the conflict, said on Sunday that Russia had advanced southwest of Pokrovsk.
A spokesperson for Ukraine’s Khortytsia group of forces operating in eastern Ukraine said on Sunday that Moscow was trying to “bypass” Pokrovsk and the town of Myrnohrad, east of Pokrovsk, by taking control of settlements to the south.
The Kremlin is attempting to “cut off the logistics chains from there, so as not to go after the well-prepared defense that is already there,” Major Viktor Tregubov said in remarks reported by Ukrainian media.
“They understand that they will lose a lot of their forces trying to take Pokrovsk so they have decided to pursue a different strategy and approach from the south and go around it,” Andriy Cherniak, a senior official in Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, told the Financial Times on Sunday.
“They will try to cut off all the supplies to Pokrovsk so that our forces leave there,” Cherniak said.
Ukrainian war-tracking blog DeepState puts Russian troops just a handful of miles from the border with Dnipropetrovsk, on the eastern edge of the village of Udachne and on the southern outskirts of the settlement of Kotlyne.
North of Kotlyne, and west of Pokrovsk, lies the E-50 highway connecting Pokrovsk to the Dnipropetrovsk city of Pavlohrad. The highway then links to Dnipro, one of Ukraine’s major cities.
Russia’s defense ministry said on Sunday that its forces had captured the village of Yantarne, south of Pokrovsk, and a village in the northeastern Kharkiv region of Ukraine. Just a day earlier, Moscow said it seized Shevchenko, immediately southwest of Pokrovsk.
Early on Monday, Ukraine’s military said Russia had launched airstrikes on settlements including Pokrovsk and Myronhrad in the past day, and that it had “stopped” 58 Russian assaults on that section of the frontline. Russia attacked several settlements, including Kotlyne and Udachne, Kyiv’s armed forces said in a statement.
It is easier for troops to advance in more rural areas away from built-up cities, rather than battle through urban settlements block by block.
Moscow made significant gains in the east throughout 2024, but Russia’s advances “will likely slow” as Moscow’s troops head further towards Pokrovsk, coming up once again against more residential and built-up areas, Angelica Evans, a Russia researcher with the ISW told Newsweek in August.
Who Said What
The ISW think tank on Sunday: “Russian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction amid continued offensive operations in the area on January 12.”
Ukraine’s General Staff on Monday:“In the Pokrovsk direction, our defenders stopped 58 assault and offensive actions of the aggressor.”
What Happens Now
Just a week out from President-elect Donald Trump‘s inauguration, both sides are fighting to place themselves in stronger positions for possible ceasefire talks brokered by the incoming leader. Bitter clashes are expected to continue as officials wait with bated breath to see how Trump will act on his pledge to end the war in Ukraine in a day.
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