Maduro Readies for a Third Term With Repression

Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Latin America Brief.

The highlights this week: Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro is set to be inaugurated for a third term amid anti-government protests, Brazil cracks down on forced labor at a BYD plant, and Chilean President Gabriel Boric becomes the first regional leader to visit the South Pole.

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Very few Latin American heads of state are due to attend Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s inauguration on Friday—an event marked by yet another crackdown by government security forces.

The poor showing due at Maduro’s inauguration represents a chilling in regional support. Even as his government became blatantly undemocratic in recent years, he had enjoyed backing from left-wing political movements in Latin America, including those linked to the current leaders of Colombia and Brazil.

But Colombian President Gustavo Petro made clear his discontent with Maduro on Wednesday in a post on X. “The last elections in Venezuela were not free,” Petro wrote, and the recent detentions of progressives and human rights defenders “block me from attending Nicolás Maduro’s inauguration.” Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is sitting the event out, too.

Although Venezuelan election authorities claim that Maduro won last July’s presidential election against opposition candidate Edmundo González, they showed no evidence—and González produced a paper trail from voting machines that election experts say shows that he was the real victor.

Regional diplomatic efforts to coax Maduro to release transparent election results have frozen in recent months. Maduro’s government has jailed hundreds of critics, and González fled to exile in Spain last September.

Still, convinced that most Venezuelans want Maduro gone, González and ally María Corina Machado called on Venezuelans to take to the streets for an anti-Maduro protest on Thursday. Since the election, Machado has been working from undisclosed locations inside Venezuela out of concern for her safety, but she said she would demonstrate and “would not miss this day for anything.”

Although the Venezuelan government deployed security forces in major cities on Thursday, hundreds of people supporting González still staged pro-democracy protests. Machado herself came out of hiding to appear at a demonstration as promised. She was detained shortly afterward, prompting domestic and international outcry, and then released. Her team said government security forces were responsible, while Venezuela’s vice president denied government responsibility.

“The international community cannot allow the normalization of fraud in the most transcendental human rights crisis in our hemisphere,” Human Rights Watch’s Juan Pappier posted on X.

González, meanwhile, has been on a regional tour meeting with international backers. His latest stop was Thursday in the Dominican Republic. This week, he visited Washington and met with U.S. President Joe Biden and an advisor to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. González also went to Argentina and Panama, which is securing the Venezuelan opposition’s proof of election results in its national bank.

González has pledged to return to Venezuela and take office as its rightful president. The Maduro government has sworn that it would arrest him, too.

“It’s the darkest and most dangerous hour that Venezuelans have experienced since the fall of the atrocious dictatorship … over half a century ago,” journalist Boris Muñoz wrote in El País on Wednesday.

But the end of the story “has still not been written,” he added. It “is like a coin is tossed in the air.”

Friday, Jan. 10: Maduro is due to begin a third six-year term in office.

Wednesday, Jan. 22: The U.N. Security Council discusses Colombia and Haiti.

Brazil vs. BYD. Brazilian labor regulators flagged last month that 163 foreign construction workers employed at a new plant for Chinese auto giant BYD had been working in “slave-like conditions.” On Tuesday, BYD and its subcontractors said those workers had returned to China and been paid the money that they were owed.

The announcement is the latest development in a government probe that paralyzed construction of the BYD plant in Brazil last month. Prosecutors said the workers were housed in cramped conditions and had their passports and parts of their salaries withheld. BYD is taking steps to comply with Brazilian law and resume operations, a labor inspector told Reuters.

Brazilian regulators have long been willing to crack down on foreign companies: Just months ago, Brazil temporarily shut down social media platform X. But the BYD site conditions are especially notable given the scale and growth of the China-Brazil economic relationship.

Changes in the Darién Gap. The jungle border between Colombia and Panama, known as the Darién Gap, saw northbound migrant crossings fall by 41 percent last year compared with 2023, Panamanian authorities reported on Jan. 2. The decrease came after Panama fenced off part of the border and increased deportation flights, with financial help from the United States.

The stepped-up enforcement might appear to be exactly what U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is seeking from Latin American countries, but it has not mellowed his animosity toward Panama. On Tuesday, Trump said he would not rule out using force to retake control of the Panama Canal. Trump also reiterated his assessment that former U.S. President Jimmy Carter’s work to return the canal to Panama was a “big mistake.”

Facing new pressure from Trump, Latin American foreign ministers agreed to hold a meeting next week to discuss their stances on migration policy in the hemisphere, Mexico’s foreign minister said Monday.

A golden moment. Films made in and about Latin America dominated last Sunday’s Golden Globe Awards, with the Mexico-set musical Emilia Pérez and Brazil’s I’m Still Here winning big. Emilia Pérez picked up four awards, while I’m Still Here star Fernanda Torres took a prize for best female actor.

The victories have provoked different reactions in Mexico and Brazil, however. I’m Still Here was a box-office sensation in Brazil; its fans include Lula, who spoke to Torres on the phone after her win. It has won acclaim for its sensitive portrayal of family life during the 1964-85 Brazilian military regime.

Many Mexicans were decidedly cooler on Emilia Peréz, which only had one Mexican lead actor, was shot in France with a French director, and has been accused of embracing stereotypes in its portrayal of organized crime. The film opens in Mexican theaters later this month.

Next up in film awards is the Oscars. Who directed the first Mexican film to win an Oscar for best international picture?

Alfonso Cuarón

Lila Avíles

Fernanda Valadez

Alejandro Iñárritu

It was for Roma, a family and political drama set in the Mexico City neighborhood, in 2019.

Chilean President Gabriel Boric visited the South Pole last Friday, becoming the third-ever head of state and the first Latin American leader to do so.

Although Chile says that part of Antarctica is its own territory, its claims—and those of six other countries—have not caused real discord for decades thanks to the 1961 Antarctic Treaty, which designates Antarctica as a military-free zone to be used only for peaceful scientific exploration. Chile, the other territorial claimants, and several other countries are signatories.

Boric acknowledged Chile’s claims on his visit. But he focused mostly on the success of the peace zone, saying that Santiago “carries out a decisive role in preserving Antarctica as a continent of science and peace.” Chile currently studies pollution in Antarctica and aims to expand its research in a new monitoring project in West Antarctica, his office said.

The Antarctic Treaty is a low-profile success story from the early Cold War; it barely makes the news because it has worked to prevent conflict in the region.

Still, in recent years, the treaty has not gone unaffected by geopolitical tensions. It stipulates that many rules in Antarctica are governed by consensus, and China and Russia have moved to block decisions on new marine protection zones.

Beginning in 2048, the treaty allows for changes to Antarctica’s rules with only a three-quarters majority rather than consensus. In the meantime, the United States, Russia, China, India, and Brazil are among the countries operating research stations on the continent.

Boric’s reference to the country’s long-term approach on Antarctica suggests that Chile will try to defuse tensions as they arise in the future and will continue to exercise science diplomacy in pursuit of peace.

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