Used vehicle prices are expected to continue to stabilize in 2025 after swinging wildly for several years before starting to calm down in 2024.
Auto data and logistics firm Cox Automotive expects wholesale prices on its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which tracks prices of used vehicles sold at its U.S. wholesale auctions, will end this year 1.4% higher than in December 2024. Pricing will fluctuate month to month due to selling seasonality and other factors, but it’s not expected to be as drastic as in previous years, according to Cox.
This year’s increase would compare with a 0.4% rise in 2024 following drops of 7% and nearly 15% in 2023 and 2022, respectively, from inflated prices during the Covid-19 pandemic. Index used vehicle prices during that time increased at historically high rates of 46.6% in 2021 and 14.2% in 2020.
During that time, availability of new vehicles fell to record lows due to supply chain and parts problems that interrupted vehicle production. The Biden administration noted the rise in used vehicle pricing was a key contribution to inflation during that time.
The overall stability in pricing is a win for potential car buyers. However, used vehicle prices are still higher than they were before the pandemic. Retail prices for consumers traditionally follow changes in wholesale prices, but they have not fallen as quickly as wholesale prices in recent years.
“We are ending some of the moves from the pandemic,” Jeremy Robb, Cox Automotive senior director of economic and industry insights, said during a call Wednesday. “We’re bound to see some volatility in our forecast.”
The average index move at the end of each year is an increase of 2.3%, according to Cox data going back to 1997. That excludes the outlier years of 2021 and 2022.
A regular month-to-month move in the index during the year is only 0.2%, Cox said.
Cox reports the average listing price of a used vehicle was $25,565 to start December, up slightly from $25,493 the prior month but now down 3% from a year earlier.
Used vehicle sales year over year are expected to increase by 1% to 37.8 million in 2025, according to Cox Automotive. That forecast includes 20.1 million in used vehicle retail sales, a 1.2% increase.
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