On Sunday, photographer and social activist Oleg Pogozhikh went to work at his studio in Kursk, western Russia, to the roar of explosions.
Sitting on the border, the Kursk region came under occasional bombardment early on in the full-scale war with Ukraine. Fighting intensified in August last year, when Ukraine launched a daring incursion into the area, capturing several settlements. Russia has since retaken much of the territory seized.
But this weekend has seen resurgent battles as Ukraine launched a new offensive in Kursk.
“Everything is as usual: missile warning sirens, explosions somewhere nearby,” Pogozhikh wrote on his Telegram feed, titled Eye of Kursk.
“Today it is especially loud. I am in the studio, and a couple of times I was shaken so much that it blocked out my ears. Close. So close that the question arises: what is the enemy trying to achieve? Of course, their goal is to spoil the holiday season, sow panic, distract attention.”
At about nine that morning, Ukrainian forces mounted their renewed push, advancing from their occupied territory of Sudzha towards the villages of Berdin and Bolshoye Soldatskoye on the way to the city of Kursk.
“Events began to occur earlier, namely after midnight,” Yan Furtsev, a local official with Russia’s liberal opposition party Yabloko, told Al Jazeera.
“Missile threat warnings began sounding, explosions were heard on the streets of Kursk, which were the result of the operation of anti-missile defence systems. But the frequency of explosions on this night was higher than on previous January nights and even in December. Almost 16 missile alerts and one warning about a drone attack were heard in almost 24 hours.”
Amid the incursion, Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov travelled to Kursk and met the local governor. Although the reasons for his visit were not officially disclosed, it is thought he came to personally oversee the region’s defences.
“All this cannot help but cause concern among citizens living in the city of Kursk, since the sound and shockwaves from downed drones and missiles are noticeably carried throughout the city’s outskirts,” Furtsev continued, adding that locals are experiencing heightened anxiety because the first week of January is a government holiday in Russia, meaning information is scarce.
But not all residents are cowering in fear.
“Everything is quiet and good in Kursk,” Pogozhikh told Al Jazeera.
“I am confident in the Russian army. It may be loud, but people are not worried. The attack of [enemy] troops seems to be only on Telegram. In reality, this is far from the truth. Life is going on as usual. Russian air defences are shooting down their drones and missiles, so few people pay attention to them. Of course, when the enemy targets civilian objects and women, children and old folks die, it angers us a little.”
Oleg Ignatov, a senior analyst at Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera the scale of Ukraine’s latest attack is “still small”.
“No significant gains have been made so far,” he said. “Russian forces are better prepared to defend themselves this time. But perhaps what happened is a distraction or a test to be followed by an attempt at a major strike, perhaps elsewhere.”
He added that Ukraine needs “new successes on the ground” before the administration of United States President-elect Donald Trump begins, a moment many expect will shift the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war, possibly towards a ceasefire.
“The goals here are again political, not military, as in the Kursk operation in the summer,” said Ignatov.
In October, Russian officials reported that at least 398 civilians have been killed as a result of hostilities in Russian border areas since February 2022.
“If we talk about the city of Kursk, then in previous months it was calmer – on some days, the missile threat warning could be one or two times a day,” said Furtsev.
“If we talk about the Kursk region in general, then in the second half of December and in the first days of January, the border towns of Rylsk and Lgov, the village of Ivanovskoye in the Rylsk district were attacked by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as a result of which the cities were significantly damaged. The restoration of destroyed objects is still ongoing. In the border areas, people are more likely to die from attacks. On January 3, a 63-year-old man died in the Rylsk district after being hit by a combat drone.”
According to the Russian Ministry of Defence, Sunday’s incursion consisted of “two tanks, one counter-obstacle vehicle, and 12 armoured fighting vehicles”.
The Russian military has since claimed it has repelled the assault, destroying part of Ukraine’s armoured column with heavy aerial and artillery fire.
In August last year, Ukrainian troops seized a swath of territory just over the border within Russia proper, including the town of Sudzha, home to a crucial pipeline providing Europe with Russian gas. However, the gas stopped flowing on January 1 as an agreement between the two warring sides expired.
During the occupation of Sudzha, Ukraine took on the responsibility of maintaining law and order, as well as the provision of essentials such as food, water and medicine, but confiscated mobile phones to deter remaining locals from reporting movements to the enemy.
In an interview with NBC, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hinted in September that the fate of Kursk could play a role in future ceasefire talks. In November, displaced people from Sudzha staged a small protest in Kursk, accusing the authorities of failing to protect them.
But despite Ukraine’s initial success, the Russians have been slowly gaining back ground, with Sudzha itself coming under bombardment as Russia tries to reclaim it.
Russian forces in the area have reportedly been bolstered by 12,000 reinforcements from their ally, North Korea, although the Kremlin has dismissed all claims about North Korean troops. If the North Koreans are there, they have been keeping a low profile and have scarcely been spotted in public.
“There are all sorts of rumours,” Pogozhikh said.
“I’ve heard about the Koreans, but I take it as a story. But that the gods and the Almighty help the Russians is a fact.”
Still, Moscow’s military might have been unable to decisively rout the Ukrainians.
Before Sunday’s operation, Zelenskyy claimed heavy losses had been inflicted on Russian and North Korean soldiers, with a whole North Korean battalion reportedly wiped out near the village of Makhnovka.
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