For decades, Syria was Iran’s closest Arab ally in the Middle East while the wealthy Persian Gulf monarchies were locked in a competition with Tehran for power and influence across the region.
With the sudden overthrow of the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, his close ally Iran has been sidelined. That presents an opportunity for Gulf states to fill the void and develop ties with the new government in Damascus.
The two leading Gulf powers, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are taking a cautious approach, because Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the main rebel faction that has seized control of much of Syria, leans toward Islamism and was once affiliated with the extremist group Al Qaeda.
The two Gulf nations have spent the better part of the past two decades trying to prevent the rise of groups that embrace political Islam across the Middle East, opposing the likes of Al Qaeda, the Islamic State and the Muslim Brotherhood.
The Gulf powers have said publicly that the new leaders in Syria must demonstrate that they will be inclusive and tolerant of the country’s diverse array of sects before they can win political and financial support.
Anwar Gargash, a diplomatic adviser to the Emirati president, said recently that the nature of the rebel factions and their past affiliation with Al Qaeda were cause for concern.
“I think these are all indicators that are quite worrying,” Mr. Gargash said during a conference in the Emirati capital, Abu Dhabi, in mid-December shortly after the rebel takeover. “The region has seen episodes like this before, so we need to be on guard.”
The Gulf nations have long feared that the empowerment of Islamist groups in the Middle East could destabilize their own autocratic governments. When the Arab Spring erupted across the Middle East in 2011, several autocracies were toppled and powerful Islamist groups rose to fill the vacuum in countries, including Tunisia and Egypt.
“The U.A.E. has a long history of being particularly hostile to Islamist-affiliated political parties and governments,” said Anna Jacobs, a senior Gulf analyst for the International Crisis Group, a nonprofit. “But at least up until now, the U.A.E. has sent some very clear signals that it’s willing to work with the interim government for the sake of preserving stability in Syria and in the wider region.”
Concerns in the Gulf about Islamist power trace back to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on New York. Most of the 19 hijackers were Saudi and had been influenced by the kingdom’s strict version of Islam, Wahhabism, which has been blamed by some for fueling intolerance and terrorism. Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has since curbed the power of religious clerics.
After the Arab Spring revolution in Egypt, voters elected a president from the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood movement, Mohammed Morsi. But he was ousted in a coup in 2013 that the United Arab Emirates supported.
And the wariness toward Islamists in Syria is felt not only in the Gulf, but in other regional powers, including Egypt.
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, the general who replaced Mr. Morsi in Egypt in 2013, has spent the years since then stamping out the Brotherhood in his country, seeing the group as a threat to his power.
In mid-December, Mr. el-Sisi made a rare appearance before journalists that suggested nervousness over the events in Syria. He appeared to draw a contrast between himself and Mr. al-Assad.
“There are two things I have never done, by the grace of God: My hands have never been stained with anyone’s blood, and I have never taken anything that wasn’t mine,” he said.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were staunch opponents of the Assad regime after Syria’s civil war began in 2011 and for the decade that followed. Mr. al-Assad became a pariah in the region and beyond for his brutal repression of opponents, which included the use of chemical weapons against his own people.
Both Gulf nations closed their embassies in Syria in early 2012 amid the Assad government’s crackdown on opponents. Over the years, as Mr. al-Assad regained control over much of his country with significant Russian and Iranian military support, there appeared to be a shift in Gulf attitudes.
The two Gulf powers were pivotal players in bringing Mr. al-Assad back into the Arab fold after a decade of isolation. The thaw was driven at the time by a desire for Arab unity to counterbalance Iran’s growing influence in Syria and in the wider Middle East.
After a devastating earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria in early 2023, the Saudi leadership made a humanitarian outreach to Mr. al-Assad. And in a milestone later that same year, the Syrian leader was readmitted to the Arab League.
The engagement with Mr. al-Assad’s administration was a tacit acknowledgment that, despite Western-backed efforts to oust him, his political survival had become a reality that could no longer be ignored.
The shift in Gulf attitudes while Mr. al-Assad still controlled Syria was part of a broader regional reordering as the Saudis and Emirates began to re-engage with Iran.
Under Syria’s new leaders, the economic opportunities of post-conflict rebuilding, an interest when Mr. al-Assad held sway, will be part of any assessment for the Gulf states.
With the country’s infrastructure in ruins, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates stand to profit from reconstruction efforts, provided they can negotiate favorable terms with the new government in Damascus.
Securing a role in rebuilding Syria also offers another way to influence the country’s future.
Qatar, in particular, seems open to supporting the transitional government in Syria.
Qatar maintained contacts with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and with other Islamist rebel factions in Syria during the civil war. In 2015, Qatar brokered a prisoner exchange deal between the rebels and the Lebanese Army.
When Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain severed ties with Qatar in 2017, one of their demands for restoring relations was that Qatar sever its support for the Nusra Front, the precursor to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
At an Arab League summit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, in 2023, Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, walked out of the meeting before a speech by Mr. al-Assad, signaling his country’s stance.
After the Assad ouster, Qatar sent its foreign minister to Damascus in late December, the highest-level government official from the Gulf to meet with the transitional government. It was followed earlier this week by a visit from the chief of the Gulf Cooperation Council and Kuwait’s foreign minister.
Ahmed al-Shara, the rebel leader who headed the offensive that overthrew Mr. al-Assad, said the Qataris would receive priority for their support over the past decade, possibly alluding to a role for the Gulf emirate in reconstruction projects.
The Qatari delegation was accompanied by a technical team from Qatar Airways to provide technical support for the reopening of Damascus International Airport.
“Qatar has a special priority in Syria because of its honorable stance toward the Syrian people,” Mr. al-Shara told reporters.
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