A passenger plane carrying 67 people, traveling from Baku, Azerbaijian, to Grozny, Russia, crashed on Wednesday on the shore of the Caspian Sea near Aktau in Kazakhstan. Thirty-eight passengers died but 29 passengers and crew members survived. Most of the plane’s fuselage was severely burned.
Investigators from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia have opened criminal inquiries to determine what caused the crash. In Azerbaijan, investigators believe that a Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system damaged the plane, which was in the vicinity of Grozny, according to two people in Baku, who were briefed on the inquiry and spoke anonymously because it was ongoing.
The Russian authorities said the plane had been diverted from its original path and have offered differing explanations for why. At first, they said that the flight was diverted because of fog and that the plane was hit by birds. On Friday they said the airspace around the Grozny airport had needed to be cleared because of Ukrainian drones. They also said the plane had made two failed attempts to land in Grozny.
Also on Friday, some lawmakers in Azerbaijan demanded that Russia apologize for the incident and conduct a thorough investigation.
Here is what we know about the crash.
The plane was on a regular flight to Grozny.
Operated by Azerbaijan Airlines, the Embraer 190 airliner was making a regular flight on Wednesday from Bazu to Grozny, the capital of Chechnya in Russia, on the other side of the Caucasus Mountains. That morning, aerial battles between drones, launched by Ukraine, and Russian air defense systems were taking place in the area around Grozny and across the North Caucasus, according to residents and local news media reports.
Once in Russian airspace, the plane stopped sending radar information. Flightradar24, a flight tracking service, said the airliner had been subjected to GPS jamming near Grozny.
On Wednesday, Russian state news agencies, citing the airport in Grozny, reported that on approach to that city, the flight was diverted because of fog. Soon after the crash, Russian news agencies cited the country’s state aviation authority statement that the plane had hit a flock of birds, causing it to attempt an emergency landing.
But in a statement on Friday, the head of Rosaviatsia, the Russian aviation watchdog, said that as the Azerbaijani airliner was heading toward Grozny, the city’s infrastructure was being attacked by Ukrainian attack drones. He said that because of the attack, an order was made for all aircraft to leave the affected airspace and that the Azerbaijani jet made two failed attempts to land in Grozny. Representatives of the airline did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
“The pilot was offered other airports,” said Dmitri Yadrov, the watchdog’s head. “He decided to fly to Aktau.”
Aviation experts cast doubt on that assertion, pointing to the military activity near the flight path at the time, and videos and images.
The plane had severe issues with altitude control.
While on the approach to Aktau, on the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea, the plane again began to send radar information. That data suggested that the pilots struggled with altitude control. According to Flightradar24, a live flight tracker, data received from the plane showed that its vertical speed oscillated more than 100 times during the final 74 minutes of the journey.
Experts suggested the plane probably was rendered uncontrollable because its electrical and hydraulic systems had been severely damaged.
“You see an airplane flying wild, wild maneuvers with strong fluctuations in the course and in the flight altitude,” said Heinrich Grossbongardt, an aviation industry expert in Hamburg, Germany.
Kazakhstan’s transportation minister, Marat Karabayev, said the plane had experienced a major failure in its control systems before it entered his country’s airspace, according to Kazinform, a state news agency.
Investigators are focusing on Russian air defense.
In Azerbaijan, investigators said they believed that a missile launched by the Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system damaged the plane.
Russian pro-military bloggers have also pointed a finger at Russian air defenses. Yuri Podolyaka, a popular blogger, said in a post on Telegram on Wednesday that the airplane most likely had been “incidentally shot down by an air defense system.”
According to a video verified by The New York Times, the tail section of the aircraft was peppered with dozens of small holes.
On Friday, Azerbaijan Airlines said it had suspended regular flights to eight Russian cities. It said that based on the preliminary results of the Azerbaijani investigation, the plane had suffered “physical and technical external interference.” It also has stopped flights to Makhachkala in neighboring Dagestan.
Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, told reporters on Friday that Russia cannot “offer any theories until the investigation comes up with some results.”
Lawmakers in Azerbaijan demand accountability.
Rasim Musabayov, a member of the National Assembly of Azerbaijan, said on Friday that all facts pointed to the plane being damaged by a Russian missile. In addition to demanding an apology from Russia, Mr. Musabayov said Russia should explain why the damaged plane was not allowed to land at other Russian airports near Grozny.
“If someone thinks that we are allies with Russia and therefore we would close our eyes on everything, then they are mistaken,” Mr. Musabayov said in a phone interview. “There aren’t that many countries that are on good terms with Russia now,” he added. “If Moscow doesn’t make the right steps in this situation the list might get shorter.”
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