The southern African nation of Mozambique is reeling under its worst election-related violence since its civil war ended 32 years ago.
Since Dec. 23, when the nation’s top court upheld a disputed presidential election result in favor of the candidate for the long-governing party, at least 125 people have died in street protests across the country, according to a civil society organization. That makes 252 deaths since the election in October, as protesters accusing the governing party, Frelimo, of rigging the election have repeatedly clashed with the police and soldiers.
The top opposition candidate has declared himself the actual winner of the election and has called on Mozambicans to shut down the country.
Tires have burned in the streets, buildings have been looted and vandalized, angry mobs have erected informal pay-to-pass roadblocks and hundreds of prisoners have broken free.
“It’s not even protest anymore. This is like a social revolt,” said Cídia Chissungo, a human-rights activist from Mozambique.
Why is what happens in Mozambique so important?
Mozambique’s instability carries big implications for the region and the globe.
It is a strategic port country connecting southern Africa to other parts of the world.
Its offshore natural gas reserves have attracted the largest foreign direct investment ever on the continent. And the country has been battling an Islamic State-backed insurgency for several years that Western powers fear could allow terrorist organizations to gain a foothold in the region if it is not contained.
How did the country get to this?
Popular discontent started long before voters went to the polls this year to choose a new president.
For years, Frelimo, the party that has governed Mozambique since it gained independence from Portugal in 1975, has faced allegations of election rigging. Public dissatisfaction with the party grew amid corruption accusations and the revelation of a debt scandal that nearly caused the collapse of the economy, and defrauded American investors. Declining investment in public services, growing poverty and unemployment and extravagant spending by people connected to Frelimo left many Mozambicans feeling like the promises of post-colonial progress were nothing but a farce.
“Electoral fraud is the large straw that broke the camel’s back,” said Hannah Danzinger da Silva, the Mozambique director for Search for Common Ground, a nongovernmental organization that promotes conflict resolution.
Several independent election observers reported witnessing widespread irregularities in the electoral process. Frelimo’s Daniel Chapo was declared the winner, with 65 percent of the vote, according to the final tally.
Young people in particular have rallied around Venâncio Mondlane, an independent candidate who placed second with 24 percent. Mr. Mondlane has declared himself the winner, claiming the race was stolen. Analysts say that his sometimes incendiary rhetoric has fueled some of the street violence.
“He’s not able to control what he’s started,” Ms. Danzinger da Silva said.
How could the chaos be stopped?
Everyone agrees the opposing sides need to come to the table and talk. It was dialogue that ended the civil war, between Frelimo, a Marxist movement, and Renamo, the anti-communist force. But how to start that dialogue now has been a point of contention.
Filipe Nyusi, the current president, had proposed a meeting with Mr. Chapo, Mr. Mondlane and the two other presidential candidates, but it never happened. Mr. Mondlane, who fled Mozambique, has refused to come back for a meeting without a guarantee that he would not be arrested — he faces charges related to the demonstrations that he says are politically motivated. He also said he fears for his safety; two of his aides were fatally shot after the election.
Mr. Mondlane has, however, laid out demands in a letter for breaking the political stalemate. They include overhauling the state agency that runs elections, implementing penalties for those who commit electoral fraud and instituting reforms that would limit the influence of political parties on the activities of the state. Mr. Mondlane and analysts have said that the international community would need to be involved in talks.
What’s next for Mozambique?
There are fears that the chaos on the streets will continue to grow through Jan. 15, when Mr. Chapo is scheduled to be sworn in as president. Some observers worry that Mr. Mondlane’s supporters will be pushing to prevent the inauguration from happening — and that criminals may take advantage of the disorder to steal and loot.
If the government declares a state of emergency, it could give the military more latitude to intervene. But many fear it would also lead to more deaths.
A resolution that has been discussed in the media proposes that Frelimo forms a unity government and gives some government positions to opposition parties. But some analysts said that may be far-fetched.
Teodoro Waty, a member of Frelimo’s top decision-making body, said that while he wanted Mr. Chapo to be the next president, his party needed to make electoral institutions transparent and address the concerns of Mozambicans who believe that Mr. Chapo lost.
“We need immediate reconciliation in the country,” he said. “We can’t keep living with distrust.”
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