In 1954, a few people in the town of Bellingham, Wash., reported seeing pits and dings on their windshields — perhaps the work of vandals. Roadblocks were quickly set up. This became front-page news in nearby Seattle, prompting people to rush to check their own windshields. Thousands then reported that they, too, had mysterious dings, in an ever-widening area from Seattle to Vancouver, British Columbia.
Panic quickly spread. People speculated that the cause might be cosmic rays, a radio transmitter in a nearby naval base, fallout from H-bomb tests or sand-flea eggs hatching in windshields. The mayor of Seattle begged for help from the governor and the White House. Motorists began stopping police cars to add their name to the list of the affected. Scientists were called in, Geiger counters whipped out.
The mysterious windshield pits of 1954 turned out not to be the result of vandals, aliens, radioactivity or sand fleas, but were instead the domain of mass human psychology. Examinations revealed that these were mundane, long-present imperfections, everyday wear and tear. It’s just that no one had bothered to notice them before, because who studies his windshield that closely?
A similar dynamic is playing out right now under the New Jersey sky. Dozens, maybe hundreds, of drone sightings have sent people in the area and far beyond into a state of high alarm.
The weak and ineffective response of government authorities should serve as a lesson in exactly how not to handle such incidents in the digital age.
Frustrated by a lack of clear information, citizen sleuths have been pointing lasers at unidentified objects in the sky, something the F.B.I. has taken to begging people not to do. Joe Rogan amplified a theory that it all had something to do with a radioactive leak. Senator Charles Schumer said new technology was needed to help local law enforcement find out “what the heck is going on.”
A former Maryland governor, Larry Hogan, shared a video of what he said “appeared to be dozens of large drones in the sky above my residence,” and denounced the “lack of transparency and the dismissive attitude of the federal government.” Donald Trump, canceling a trip to his New Jersey golf course, said the “government knows what is happening.” It sounded ominous.
All this speculation and innuendo is particularly infuriating because many of the facts of this mystery aren’t mysterious at all.
We don’t yet know what prompted the initial reports of drone sightings. Many were near a military base, raising the possibility that the unidentified objects belonged to the U.S. — or to someone else, even a hostile nation, that was trying to get an unauthorized look. That’s a very important distinction, to be sure. But the supposedly numberless swarms of drones that have since been spotted everywhere anyone looks are a different story.
Experts have been pulling their hair out trying to explain that they aren’t a cause for alarm, they’re the result of it. Because those unidentified objects are planes. Airplanes. Landing and taking off at Newark, one of the busiest airports in the country. Or they’re hobby drones that other amateur sleuths have sent up to get a glimpse of the phenomenon. Or they’re celestial bodies. Atmospheric scientists took a look at the lights that Hogan had spotted and quickly identified them as stars in the Orion constellation.
People find the simple explanation hard to believe for the same reason that people in Seattle did in 1954: because they had never before bothered to look that closely.
It’s fun to scare yourself sometimes, or to be a part of a massive multiplayer puzzle-solving effort evolving in real time. But things get un-fun very fast in this arena. Recklessly using lasers may well cause a real tragedy, including potentially downing an airplane with hundreds of people aboard. But why leave it to chance? Some politicians are already pushing for authority to pre-emptively shoot these objects out of the sky. How long before civilians decide to take a shot at some lights above that they misidentify as a drone?
Mass public panic requires an early and robust response from the authorities. Anything vague or mealy-mouthed just stokes the fire, and weakens people’s already thin trust in the government. The more our leaders panic, the more that people tune them out and become cynical, and the harder it becomes to get the public’s attention about the things that truly are alarming. Just look at what happened with Covid.
And though that’s always been true, it is especially so in the digital age. In the Seattle windshield panic, mainstream media outlets amplified people’s panic. In the internet age, ordinary people can perform that service, whether because they believe they have some crucial information to share or just because they want attention or engagement.
So what should the authorities have done? Aviation enthusiasts and atmospheric scientists have already been mapping reported sightings to existing planes or constellations. The authorities could compile a quick database with dozens — maybe even hundreds — of these incidents, and make it available to the public, along with the refutations that they check and verify. That would be a big start.
Federal authorities — Homeland Security, the F.B.I., the White House, intelligence agencies — should have quickly responded with clarity, starting with reaching out to panicked politicians. Finally, on Tuesday, members of the House Intelligence Committee got a classified briefing on the topic. At this point, the public should also be told at least some of the details. Apart from all this, unauthorized drones are a problem, and there does need to be better regulation and technology to deal with them. Let’s hear about that, then, rather than this mindless dangerous panic.
Politicians from both parties — House Intelligence Committee, looking at you — should hold a news conference and transparently discuss the details of what’s known, and to admit to whatever real issues there may be, preferably today, before a real tragedy occurs.
Until then, we have people like State Senator Doug Mastriano of Pennsylvania claiming that “it is inconceivable that the federal government has no answers nor has taken any action to get to the bottom of the unidentified drones.” Accompanying that statement, he posted a photo of a “crashed drone” being taken to “an undisclosed location for further investigation.” The item in question was a clearly recognizable TIE fighter from the movie “Star Wars.” He later said it was a joke.
Not my favorite, to be honest, but I tell you what, America: If Darth Vader shows up in New Jersey on an Imperial fleet vehicle, I will at last join you in panic.
The post How to Make the Drone Panic So Very Much Worse appeared first on New York Times.
