Unfortunately, Ali Soufan was right. One year ago, shortly after the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel and the start of Israel’s military response, Soufan told me that the events had “ushered in a new era of chaos to the region.” The fallout has seen the displacement of millions of Gazans, the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, and the overthrow of former Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad.
Yet for all the death and destruction, much is still unsettled—and the imminent return of Donald Trump to the White House adds another wildcard. Soufan has worked in the region for decades. As an FBI agent, he came closer than anyone else to heading off the 9/11 attacks. Now, Soufan leads his own security consulting agency, where he facilitates delicate hostage negotiations abroad.
In between flights to the Middle East, Soufan spoke with Vanity Fair about everything from the nature of Syria’s victorious rebel group (“They continue to be a terrorist organization until they prove otherwise”), to how much power Marco Rubio may possess as Trump’s secretary of state (“I believe everything is going to be run directly by the White House”), to the broader conflicts escalating all throughout the Middle East. “There’s a lot of things happening now,” Soufan says, in a major understatement. “The situation in the region is really scary.”
Vanity Fair: No one could have predicted exactly how things would unfold during the past year. But you’re an expert in the region. Have any of the ramifications surprised even you?
Ali Soufan: We always knew that something big was going to happen in Syria after October 7 and after the weakening of Iran’s key proxy, Hezbollah, in Lebanon. Turkey has moved swiftly to fill the vacuum left by Tehran and to expand its influence. But I don’t think even the Turks believed that the Assad regime would collapse this fast.
The Israeli hostages remain an enormous issue. On Monday president-elect Donald Trump threatened Hamas, saying “all hell will break out” if the hostages are not released by January 20. Is that helpful, or is he posturing in case they are released sooner, so Trump can claim credit for scaring them into a deal?
I think that it’s only talk, and I think it’s coming from the fact that the situation might be solved before he takes office. The head of the CIA went to Qatar [on Wednesday]. What Trump says does not impact much what is going on in the negotiations. If you’re Hamas, what else can happen? The situation in Gaza is a total mess. They’re already living in the deepest level of hell. I have a positive feeling about the outcome of the negotiations this time.
Yet even if that part of the troubles is resolved, Trump will be dealing with a deeply volatile region. You have worked in counterterrorism for a long time. Where are the greatest risks from the new instability?
I think Turkey will do some kind of military operation against the Kurds [in northern Syria], because they consider the Syrian Democratic Forces, which are led by the Kurds, to be a terrorist organization on the Turkish border. If Turkey’s operation is successful, what’s going to happen to the hundreds of ISIS fighters that are in Kurdish custody? It could be similar to what happened in Iraq, when ISIS declared an Islamic state. The situation would be very dangerous not only for Syria, but also for Turkey and the international community, including the United States.
Trump consistently talks like an isolationist, about taking care of America and leaving other countries alone to sort themselves out.
We wanted to ignore Afghanistan for the longest time. Well, Afghanistan did not ignore us. I remember what happened on 9/11. The situation in Syria is a perfect example of how dangerous the world is and how important American engagement is, not to impact the competing groups and nation-states, but to protect the homeland.
Look, Hezbollah didn’t go away. Hamas didn’t go away. Iran and its axis, yes, they are weakened, but we don’t know what’s going to happen. The situation in the region might even go further towards chaos with the possibility of the Israelis hitting nuclear sites in Iran, this time because they have support in the Trump administration to do so.
Given the complexity of the possible terrorist threats, how much confidence do you have in Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence?
I would like to hear her positions on these things in confirmation hearings. Does she have a grasp on how dangerous the world is, or do [Trump and his advisers] really believe, ‘Let’s get out, this is not our fight. Whatever happens happens over there’? We’ve done that before, and it didn’t work out.
Saudi Arabia is, of course, also an enormously important player in the region. Given the kingdom’s relationships with Trump and with Jared Kushner, are the Saudis especially happy that he is returning to the White House?
I think, frankly, most of the people in the region are happy to see Trump back in power, not only the Saudis. Because they believe that they understand Trump and Trump understands them. With Trump, you don’t have a lot of things that they think are very hypocritical coming from the US. I’ll give you an example. When Jamal Khashoggi was killed, Trump said, ‘Look, we need cheap oil, they buy our weapons, people die, everybody kills people. Who cares?’ That is a horrible thing to say, but he was blunt and honest about it. When Biden was running for office, he said, ‘We can’t be bought. Saudi Arabia will be held accountable.’ But when we had gas at $5 a gallon, he went and fist-bumped Mohammed bin Salman.
Closer to home—how many years were you an FBI agent?
About 10.
The bureau has certainly been under fire before. But does it sadden you to see the Republicans turn it into such a political target?
Sure. Some of these accusations against the FBI are not fair and some of them are fair. Every now and then it’s good to think outside the box and try to reenergize the institution and get rid of the decades and decades of bureaucratic issues that hinder it from being the premier law enforcement entity in the world.
Yeah, but Trump isn’t talking about improved efficiency. He’s talking about retribution against political enemies. Isn’t that troubling?
If that happens, absolutely. We have laws and a constitution to prevent this from happening. But, yeah, it is frightening. I hope that day does not come. I think I trust the institutions to manage this storm.
His choice for FBI director, Kash Patel, has published an enemies list.
There’s two things about Kash Patel. There’s the partisan thing. This is a situation on both sides of the aisle: You see people saying sometimes outrageous stuff because this is the nature of our politics today, and this is how you raise money, this is how you become popular. But I think Kash worked very closely with the FBI before, when he was in DOJ. He is not a total outsider coming in. And I hope, like President Trump, he realizes the mission. If they do, the institutions will support them. If not, it’s going to be chaotic like the four years when President Trump was in office.
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