Oscar season kicked into high gear this month, transforming a race that once appeared to be wide-open into something with a little more shape.
What can be gleaned about this year’s crop of best picture contenders now that we’ve gotten nominations from the Golden Globes and Independent Spirit Awards, wins from the Gotham Awards, and a variety of critics’ groups picking their favorites? Below, I’ll project the films that I believe have the best shot at making the Oscars’ top category.
First, a disclaimer: Few of the groups that have weighed in so far include actual Oscar voters, and many of the early honors are decided by small juries that are dwarfed by the academy’s huge voter roll, which numbers nearly 10,000 members. Still, these awards bodies and tastemaker groups shape perception and help to winnow the field. As busy Oscar voters begin their quests to catch up on all the contenders, the movies that have already been doing well are likeliest to receive the most sampling.
I’ll begin with what I’ve been calling the A-B-C-D-E tier, the five strongest best picture bets that just so happen to begin with the first five letters of the alphabet.
‘Anora’
This comedy about a sex worker’s impulsive marriage to a wealthy Russian scion is off to a strong start: After winning the prestigious Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival in May, “Anora” opened in October to the year’s best per-screen average. Over the last few weeks, the film has won the best picture award from the Los Angeles Film Critics Association and netted great nomination hauls from the Golden Globes and the Indie Spirits. (The fact that both groups recognized the lesser-known supporting actor Yura Borisov is a sign of just how well the film is playing.) Still, here’s the most important thing: Whenever I talk to voters and industry insiders about their favorite films of the year, “Anora” gets by far the most shout-outs. It’s the passion pick and our current pack leader.
‘The Brutalist’
If serious-minded voters fail to spark to “Anora,” they’ve got a weighty alternative in “The Brutalist.” This drama about a midcentury Hungarian architect (Adrien Brody) who emigrates to America has a whole lot of Very Important Ideas on its mind, including antisemitism in the years following World War II, the compromises necessary when an artist creates works at a grand scale, and the rapacious nature of American capitalism. Directed by Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist” won first-place honors from the New York Film Critics Circle and the runner-up prize from their Los Angeles brethren, in addition to picking up seven Golden Globe nominations. This three-and-a-half-hour drama (including an intermission!) won’t be an easy box-office sell as it begins to roll into theaters this week, but Oscar voters will be impressed by Corbet’s ambition and the film’s staggering scale.
‘Conclave’
This juicy potboiler about the plot to elect a new pope features almost as much back-channeling, bitter rivalries and surprise twists as an actual Oscar season. Fitting, then, that it should be one of the safest best picture contenders. Everybody seems to like “Conclave,” which is handsomely filmed by the director Edward Berger, whose recent remake of “All Quiet on the Western Front” won four Oscars. But do they love it enough that “Conclave” can go the distance and actually win best picture? It’ll take a few more rounds of secret votes before we know the answer to that one.
‘Dune: Part Two’
The first “Dune” won six Oscars, and since the sequel received even better reviews and box-office returns, a best picture berth appears all but certain. Still, there may be limits on just how far the spice can flow: The filmmaker Denis Villeneuve was denied a best director nod for the first film, and his fresh snub from the Golden Globes last week suggests that history could repeat itself. A better best picture campaign could have been mounted if the movie and press tour had not telegraphed that a third installment was in the works; if “Part Two” instead appeared to end the series, voters would have been more inclined to bestow rewards now instead of waiting to see how the whole thing turns out.
‘Emilia Pérez’
Does Jacques Audiard’s unconventional Netflix musical have a shot at winning best picture? After taking major prizes at the European Film Awards, including best picture, director, actress and screenplay, “Emilia Pérez” picked up 10 Golden Globe nominations, the second-biggest haul any film has ever received there. Social-media users may have blanched at the film’s indelicate portrayal of transgender issues — co-star Selena Gomez’s Spanish has taken some online drubbing, too — but those kinds of controversies rarely penetrate the academy conclave. There is no best picture contender as bold as “Emilia Pérez,” and that alone could propel the film to victory.
In addition to the A-B-C-D-E tier, three more movies appear to be good bets for a best picture nomination.
‘Wicked’
ABC and the academy must be breathing a sigh of relief that “Wicked” has turned out so well: After the last Oscar telecast saw a ratings bump thanks to the populist blockbusters “Oppenheimer” and “Barbie,” this year’s crop of initial contenders looked positively puny in comparison. But “Wicked” has come on strong at the box office, far surpassing even “Dune: Part Two” with a domestic haul that could reach $500 million, and the film has proved just as popular with early voting groups, scoring key Golden Globe nominations, best film and director trophies from the National Board of Review, and 11 nominations from the Critics Choice Awards. Forget green and pink: “Wicked” has its eye on gold.
‘A Real Pain’
Jesse Eisenberg’s dramedy about two American cousins on a Holocaust tour through Poland is an intimate, heartfelt comedy that could contend for screenplay and acting Oscars, which is the sort of package that usually pushes a film into the best picture race. Though it didn’t receive best picture nominations from the Indie Spirits or Critics Choice Awards, I’m still confident in its chances: Kieran Culkin is the front-runner for the supporting actor Oscar, and over the last 10 years, the winner in that category has always come from a film nominated for best picture. The inclusion of “A Real Pain” in the American Film Institute’s 10-best list further bolsters its case, since that lineup tends to best reflect the median Oscar-voter sensibility.
‘Sing Sing’
Everything seemed to be going so well for “Sing Sing,” A24’s well-reviewed summer drama about a prison arts-rehabilitation program: Its leading man, Colman Domingo, and the supporting actor Clarence Maclin both won Gotham Awards this month, which was followed by a great nomination haul from the Indie Spirits (including a best film nod) and a slot on the A.F.I. Top 10 list. Then came a brutal rebuff from the Golden Globes, which nominated only Domingo. Though the Globes have diversified their voter rolls somewhat, they’ve always had a wonky track record when it comes to recognizing Black-led films, so it’s hard to say whether this portends trouble ahead for “Sing Sing” or if it’s par for the course. Still, I think the movie’s in a much better position than most contenders.
So that’s eight of the eventual 10 best picture nominees that look to be safely scouted. Which movies are contending for those last two slots? By my count, there are about nine titles that could make the outer reaches of the best-picture lineup, and I’m ranking them in descending order according to their likelihood.
RaMell Ross’s visionary “Nickel Boys,” which adapts Colson Whitehead’s novel about two Black teenagers in an abusive boarding school, uses an immersive point-of-view technique that could push Ross into the crowded best director field; let’s hope his movie follows suit in the best picture category. The Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown” has received respectable reviews and is almost certain to net Timothée Chalamet a best actor nomination; it also courts an older demographic within the academy that could push it into the final best picture slot.
On the other hand, what if one of those spaces were saved for the wild body-horror comedy “The Substance,” which scored five Golden Globe nominations but is so outside the norms of what Oscar voters typically reward? It would certainly make the lineup more exciting, though a film like the docudrama “September 5,” about a news crew covering the Munich Olympics terrorist attack, offers a much more traditional bet.
The best picture field has become much more international in recent years, so we shouldn’t count out films like the Iranian thriller “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” Brazil’s “I’m Still Here” or the Indian drama “All We Imagine as Light.” And there are two animated films with a credible case for cracking the top category — “Inside Out 2” and “The Wild Robot” — though voters have lately been content to consign similar contenders to the animation category and call it a day.
Still, in a season that doesn’t appear to have an overwhelming sweeper, there’s still plenty of time for contenders to rise and fall before the Oscar nominations are announced on Jan. 17.
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