In the week since President Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria fell in a shocking conclusion to the country’s 13-year civil war, Syrians have celebrated the end of a regime that subjected them to crippling poverty and human rights abuses.
But the ascension of the rebel groups that toppled Mr. Assad threatens to exacerbate the humanitarian crisis that was set off by the civil war.
During Mr. Assad’s rule, crippling sanctions imposed on Syria by countries around the world hobbled its economy. Any new government that takes control will inherit those sanctions, which will severely restrict funding for Syria’s reconstruction and limit assistance to civilians unless the international community moves to lift them.
Sanctions on the ousted Assad regime are not the only challenge that could stymie the country’s new leaders as Syria struggles to find some footing. A second major problem compounds the issue: The leading faction of the rebel network that ousted Mr. Assad, a group known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, is labeled a terrorist organization by the United States, the United Nations and others. H.T.S. has assumed control of the country, but the designation means that any government the group runs cannot, as of now, get help for reconstruction and further narrows the pathways available to countries trying to send assistance to Syria.
“Syria is one of the most comprehensively sanctioned countries in the world, and it faces other designations and export controls that directly impact economic activity there, including humanitarian assistance,” said Alex Zerden, a senior fellow at the Center for New American Security who previously worked on terrorism and financial intelligence at the Treasury Department. As a result of the tangle of limitations, it is “very hard to provision humanitarian assistance in Syria compared to other countries,” he added.
There is wide agreement in the international community that Syria desperately needs more aid, and some efforts are underway to help Syrians in need, despite the challenges posed by sanctions and other obstacles. Britain said on Sunday that it would send 50 million pounds or $63.5 million, in new humanitarian assistance for displaced people in Syria and Syrian refugees in Lebanon and Jordan. On Wednesday, Germany said it would send 8 million euros, about $8.4 million, for humanitarian aid.
But such contributions represent only a trickle of funds compared with what Syria needs to rebuild after more than a decade of war. While some humanitarian exceptions exist, experts say the broader prohibitions not only bar assistance for a new government but also chill aid to civilians and threaten the chances of stabilizing Syria.
Since Mr. Assad’s ouster, there has been growing international debate about lifting the terrorist label on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham if it follows through on pledges to support a democratic process and protect human rights. Speaking to journalists in Damascus on Monday, Ahmed al-Shara, the group’s leader, called for the designation to be removed and also for sanctions on the Assad regime to be lifted so that Syria could begin to rebuild.
That view has some support in U.S. foreign policy circles. Senator Chris Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut, who leads a foreign relations subcommittee on counterterrorism, issued a statement on Monday about promptly lifting all sanctions.
“Most immediately, the U.S. should temporarily suspend sanctions that hamper the much-needed surge in humanitarian assistance and reconstruction that will be necessary to help support the Syrian people in the short term,” he said, calling for the United States to directly engage with H.T.S.
But with the Biden administration on its way out next month and the Trump administration not yet formed, the United States will probably not take immediate action to lift sanctions and its designation of H.T.S. as a terrorist group. It is more likely for now to keep relying on humanitarian exceptions to support Syrian civilians.
But time is a luxury that many Syrian civilians who need immediate help do not have. Some officials say the United States cannot afford to take an overly thoughtful approach amid a rush by foreign powers to assert influence.
“Decisions in Damascus will be made quickly,” Senator Murphy said, “and too often other powers act as the U.S. wrings it hands over what to do.”
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