AQABA, Jordan — U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been on perhaps his last Middle East diplomatic mission as America’s top diplomat this week with the aim of preventing Syria from spiraling out of control after the sudden ouster of President Bashar Assad.
Blinken was one of several senior U.S. officials traveling across the region in the Biden administration’s final weeks amid deep uncertainty in Washington and abroad over how Donald Trump will approach Mideast when he takes office on Jan. 20, 2025.
Blinken held meetings Jordan, Turkey and Iraq with the aim of trying to shape the future of post-Assad Syria by forging consensus among regional partners and allies whose interests often diverge.
The primary goal of his 11 previous trips to the region since the Israel-Hamas war began in October 2023 was securing a ceasefire in Gaza that resulted in the release of remaining hostages. Now, suddenly, that wasn’t his priority and was being handled by President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, who traveled to Israel, Egypt and Qatar.
Biden’s team is running out of time to cement a legacy in the Middle East after drawing widespread criticism that it turned a blind eye toward Israel’s military conduct and its treatment of civilians in Gaza. His administration did succeed in helping lead a push for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon that, while tenuous, is holding.
Chartering a new course for Syria
While hopes remain for concluding a Gaza ceasefire by the time Biden leaves the White House, charting a course for a new Syria may prove to be lower hanging fruit.
Blinken left Washington just three days after Assad fled for Russia, where he received asylum from Syria’s longtime ally. Blinken said his goal was to convince countries in the Mideast and elsewhere that they should embrace, and more important, commit to supporting the U.S. view of how Syria should be run in the short- and medium- terms.
“All nations should pledge to support an inclusive and transparent process and refrain from external interference,” Blinken had said, promising that the United States would recognize and support a new government that met those principles.
To that end, he said he had secured the backing of the 12 foreign ministers from the Arab League, Turkey and top officials from the European Union and United Nations who held an emergency meeting on Syria in the Jordanian port city of Aqaba.
Goals for a new Syrian government
Blinken spoke of a broad consensus among regional partners about where Syria should be headed after decades of rule by the Assad family.
For one, a Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political transition should lead to “credible, inclusive, and nonsectarian governance” that meets international standards. That new government must uphold clear commitments to respect the rights of minorities and women, facilitate the flow of humanitarian assistance to all in need.
Also, Syria cannot be used a base for terrorism, notably by the Islamic State group, or pose a threat to its neighbors. And any remaining Assad-era chemical or biological weapons stocks must be secured and destroyed.
Turkey, the Kurds, IS and regional instability
It’s unclear whether Blinken’s push will make those principles achievable.
Syria is riven by partisan and sectarian infighting that led in part to rise of IS in the first place.
Turkey, Syria’s neighbor to the north, is deeply suspicious of Syrian and Iraqi Kurds. Turkey deems them terrorists although some of those Kurds have proved to be key American partners in the fight to destroy IS. The U.S. helped broker an agreement between the Turks and one of those Kurdish groups, the Syrian Defense Forces, in the immediate wake of Assad’s departure, although it’s unclear how long that can last.
What will Trump’s return to power mean?
There are concerns in the region about how the incoming Trump administration will handle the Middle East, apart from deepening ties with Israel.
Nonetheless, current U.S. officials believe the Republican is unlikely to abandon American military positions in Syria, as he had wanted to do during his first term. Their belief stems from the fact that Trump frequently takes credit for vanquishing IS by finishing the liberation of their territory that began during the Obama administration.
The threat of the possible return of IS would be too great for Trump risk, according to these officials. They say Iraq, which signed an agreement with the U.S. in September under which the U.S.-led anti-IS coalition will withdraw next year, is already hinting that conditions could force a change in that timetable.
Searching for missing Americans
The Biden administration has made it a priority to secure the release of Austin Tice, an American journalist believed held in Syria for more than a decade. Since Assad’s ouster, the U.S. has redoubled efforts to find Tice and return him home.
Meantime, U.S. officials said Friday that another American, Travis Timmerman, was transported by the U.S. military out of Syria, where he had disappeared seven months ago into Assad’s prison system. Timmerman was among the this week by rebels.
Timmerman, 29, was flown to Jordan on a U.S. military helicopter, according to two U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss an ongoing operation. It’s unclear where Timmerman may go next. He was detained after he crossed into Syria while on a Christian pilgrimage from a mountain along the eastern Lebanese town of Zahle in June.
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