An interactive map shows which parts of New York are most vulnerable to sea-level rises and increased flooding due to climate change.
The map, developed by researchers at Climate Central, uses advanced predictive modeling to show which areas could be underwater by 2050. Areas that are at risk of being lower than the water level on the map are shaded in red.
Manhattan would be mostly safe, according to this projection, with only the smallest amount of water encroaching on the city’s outermost edges.
The Brooklyn Navy Yard, the historic industrial complex along the East River, would experience some water inundation.
The areas most at risk across the state of New York would be the land across the southern coast of Long Island and the barrier islands below it.
According to the map, many coastal neighborhoods in Suffolk and Nassau counties, including Freeport and Island Park, would be submerged.
The barrier islands would also be badly affected, with large portions of Jones Beach Island underwater, including Gilgo Beach. Fire Island would also be inundated with water.
Many of the low-lying tidal flats between Long Island and the barrier islands would also be totally underwater.
Some coastal areas on the north and east coasts of Long Island would also be at risk, as would some parts of Westchester.
New York City has planned to build several expansive—and expensive—seawalls to protect it from rising sea levels and storm surges, although some of these have been stalled amid debates over their cost, feasibility and effectiveness.
The map shows that, in this predicted scenario for 2050, New York would fare better than its neighbor New Jersey, with the latter state facing much more widespread inundation in areas around the Hackensack River.
Peter Girard, a spokesperson for Climate Central, previously told Newsweek: “People living on low-lying coastal land, like river mouths, are already facing higher flood risks because of the 20-40 centimeters [7.9-15.7 inches] of sea level rise measured along U.S. coasts over the past few decades. Their communities can expect the worst of the impacts as water levels continue to climb.”
However, Margaret Walls, director of the Climate Risks and Resilience Program at nonprofit Resources for the Future, previously told Newsweek that not all parts of the United States will be affected by rising sea levels in the same way.
“In big cities, you know, we’re not going to let New York City or Miami decline too much. There’s too much at stake. So I think there’ll be a lot of adaptation to keep those economies afloat,” Walls said.
“In my opinion, I think the sort of smaller cities, smaller towns, the places where they don’t have the resources to invest and they want to keep their economies viable, how is that going to happen?”
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