A new map shows where some parts of California could be impacted by sea levels rising and an increase in flooding due to climate change, but the state is still not as vulnerable as other coastal parts of the country.
The map, developed by researchers at nonprofit Climate Central, uses advanced predictive modeling to show which areas could be at risk of being submerged by 2050.
While most of California’s coastline appears to be safe, the worst affected areas would be around the northern part of the San Francisco Bay Area.
The low-lying areas around San Pablo Bay would be particularly affected, including Vallejo, as well as the areas above it surrounding the Napa River, and the area up to Petaluma.
The coastal areas around Suisun and Grizzly Bays would also be inundated with water, primarily the wetlands and wildlife refuges.
While San Francisco itself would be largely unaffected, the city’s airport and the area north of the Oakland Airport could be encroached on by water.
Some areas to the west of Stockton are also at risk of experiencing flooding due to rising sea levels.
Los Angeles and surrounding areas appear to be largely unaffected, with the exception of a few small areas on the Orange County coast and near the port in Long Beach.
Unlike other vulnerable states like Florida, the areas most at risk from sea levels rising and flooding in California appear to be low-lying inland areas rather than the coastline.
California is also well protected by its many seawalls and levees. Some of these include walls made of concrete or other materials, or levees which can be made natural materials such as rocks and earth.
The interactive map by Climate Central marks out protective structures like levees, natural ridges or other features, in black, and the area around San Francisco Bay has a particularly large amount.
When you choose the option to include at-risk areas that aren’t currently protected by these structures, far more areas on the map appear red, indicating water inundation.
Without these protections, a large swathe of area around the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta and the surrounding regions between Sacramento and Stockton would also be below water level by 2050.
Areas around the San Francisco Bay would be inundated by water without the levees. When looking at the map with the levees, some of these areas would still be affected, but to a much lesser scale.
The sea level along the U.S. coastline is projected to rise, on average, around 10 to 12 inches by 2050, according to projections from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. That equals the total rise measured over the entire last century, between 1920 and 2020.
“People living on low-lying coastal land, like river mouths, are already facing higher flood risks because of the 20-40 centimeters [7.9—15.7 inches] of sea level rise measured along U.S. coasts over the past few decades. Their communities can expect the worst of the impacts as water levels continue to climb,” Peter Girard, the spokesperson for Climate Central, previously told Newsweek.
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