It’s been a difficult year for China’s economy, but the country is still expected to hit its GDP growth target, thanks to strong global demand for its exports.
In November, China’s exports grew 6.7% from a year ago to $312 billion — the highest level since September 2022, per official data released on Tuesday.
Some of the exports in November could have been from US importers who were frontloading to avoid potential higher tariffs in President-elect Donald Trump’s second term, BofA Securities analysts wrote on Tuesday. This activity could hold up in the near term, they added.
The robust November import adds to a 5.1% growth in exports through the first 10 months of this year and reversed a 4.6% decline in exports last year, presenting the “biggest upside surprise” for China’s economy in 2024, wrote Lynn Song, the Greater China economist for ING, in a note last week.
However, given that China’s exports in November were strong due to stockpiling, its upside could be short-lived — especially as global demand slows.
“We are likely going to see a payback of such frontloading in 2Q-3Q next year, aggravating the potential impact of tariff increases,” wrote the BofA Securities analysts.
As it was, China’s November imports — though robust — missed the 8.5% increase anticipated by economists in a Reuters poll. The growth was also lower than October’s 12.7% rise.
And it could get worse for the world’s second-largest economy amid US President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats.
Trump has pledged to slap 60% tariffs on all imports from China and an additional 10% on China, citing its role in the fentanyl trade.
China’s consumer demand also isn’t holding up. Imports contracted 3.9% from a year ago, as Chinese people tighten their belts and trade down for cheaper purchases.
Beijing gets ready for Trump 2.0
Having dealt with Trump’s first presidency — during which the US and China started its trade war — Beijing is getting ready for Trump 2.0.
The Chinese leadership is holding its Central Economic Work Conference this week.
The meeting comes just after a Politburo meeting on Monday, during which China’s top leadership pledged “a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy” ahead, according to Xinhua state news agency.
Xinhua added that China will also step up “unconventional” counter-cyclical adjustments and boost domestic demand and consumption.
“The strong tone on policy stance suggests that Beijing is very determined to stabilize growth and will step up fiscal spending next year,” wrote Ting Lu, Nomura’s chief China economist, on Tuesday.
Markets viewed the Politburo’s plans positively, with China’s stocks and bonds rallying on Monday. Optimism faded on Tuesday, with markets relatively muted.
“We believe China is not in a typical downcycle, we think Beijing needs to do much more beyond increasing fiscal spending and printing money to achieve a real recovery,” wrote Lu.
China has been pulling out moves to boost its flagging economy this year, including aggressive stimulus measures in late September that sent the stock market surging 8.5% in one day.
China’s benchmark CSI300 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index are both about 20% higher this year to date but are far below their peaks in early 2021.
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