The collapse of the regime of Bashar al-Assad not only upends decades of Assad family rule in Syria, it also promises to realign power across the Middle East.
The situation on the ground remains highly uncertain, especially around questions of whether the rebels can consolidate control and how they will govern if they do. But as a new reality in Syria sets in, a reordering of regional power dynamics is already taking shape that dramatically diminishes Iran’s influence and positions Turkey to play a critical role in shaping the future of a post-Assad Syria.
During Syria’s nearly 14-year civil war, no fewer than six foreign militaries engaged in the conflict, underscoring the major geostrategic stakes at play. Among them, Iran stands out for its unfettered investment in propping up Mr. al-Assad, reportedly spending billions of dollars to support the regime and mobilizing tens of thousands of proxy militia fighters. For Tehran, Syria was the leading edge of its forward defense strategy, protecting its interests in the region by projecting its power and influence. The fall of Mr. al-Assad dramatically undercuts this influence, depriving Tehran of a key Arab ally and cutting the land bridge to its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah. Uprooted from its decades-long strategic posture in Syria, Iran is unlikely to recover from this significant setback for the foreseeable future.
By contrast, Turkey is poised to see its influence expand. Ankara’s ties to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, — the designated terrorist group that led the regime-toppling offensive — are complicated. Turkey does not openly collaborate with H.T.S. but maintains quiet lines of communication and influence. The country likely will become a key H.T.S. interlocutor and bridge to the international community, given the group’s proscribed nature, which will deepen its influence in Syria, where it already maintains a de facto buffer zone across much of the north. It will almost certainly use this new position to keep Kurdish power in Syria in check, and try to begin to facilitate the return of some three million Syrian refugees, a source of growing internal tension.
Wealthy Gulf monarchies also stand to gain. The fall of Mr. al-Assad, who hailed from the Alawite minority, marks the restoration of Sunni power in the heart of the Middle East and could presage Syria becoming a new Gulf ally. Gulf countries have an opportunity to use their significant resources to finance Syria’s reconstruction and help shape the country’s trajectory while boosting their vision of regional growth and economic integration. Similarly, Mr. al-Assad’s exit could open the way to address threats to regional security emanating from the destabilizing reverberations of Syria’s festering conflict, such as drug trafficking, terrorism and arms smuggling. Wary of jihadist extremism, Gulf countries could also seek to temper the more extreme elements within the H.T.S. grouping.
For Israel, Syria’s new reality is a mixed blessing. Neutralizing the Iranian and Hezbollah threat in Syria and forestalling Iran’s ability to rearm Hezbollah easily in the future are important victories for Israel. But the prospect of a former Al Qaeda affiliate gaining power in Damascus is unsettling, to say the least, and Israel will look to guard against spillover should Syria undergo a period of heightened chaos. Mindful of these potential threats, Israel is already taking measures to enhance its security: It has deployed troops to the demilitarized buffer zone in the Golan Heights and continues to undertake strikes against strategic targets in Syria, including against a security complex and a government research center in Damascus on Dec. 8.
In neighboring Lebanon, the tenor of the post-Assad transition will constitute a make-or-break moment, either delivering Lebanon a desperately needed win or plunging the troubled country deeper into crisis. If the transition in Syria proceeds somewhat smoothly, the positive impact on Lebanon could be substantial. Relative calm in Syria would allow the more than one million Syrian refugees living in Lebanon to return, providing the country much-needed space to recover and rebuild in the aftermath of its yearlong conflict with Israel. Eventually, as reconstruction in Syria begins, it could even become a source for jobs and a boost to Lebanon’s failing economy. On the other hand, if rebel groups are unable to consolidate control and instead descend into infighting, Lebanon could witness new inflows of refugees that could provoke deeper crisis and even the outbreak of widespread civil violence in Lebanon.
Given Syria’s strategic significance, the regime’s collapse has implications for global power dynamics. While Russia’s post-Assad posture in Syria remains unclear — specifically whether Moscow will retain control of its strategically important air and naval bases — the collapse of Russia’s Syrian client has dealt a significant blow to Russian influence in the Middle East. Russian strategists once called Syria Russia’s first post-Soviet success, yet the resounding defeat of Mr. al-Assad will undoubtedly undermine Russia’s prestige in the Middle East and beyond.
For the United States, a post-Assad Syria poses both potential opportunities and challenges. Certainly, the fall of a brutal dictator who was antithetical to U.S. interests in the region and the demise of Iranian and Russian influence marks a major win for the United States. But with a former Al Qaeda affiliate and designated terrorist group positioned to be the primary power, the United States will face thorny challenges on how to engage and ensure against worst-case outcomes. Whether or not H.T.S. has truly moderated as it professes will be central to defining America’s options. Meanwhile, a potential ISIS resurgence also looms as a significant threat to U.S. national security.
As the euphoria of Mr. al-Assad’s demise gives way to Syria’s complex reality, the challenges associated with the country’s new power brokers are only starting to emerge. Power vacuums, infighting and threats to Syria’s many minorities could provoke renewed chaos and violence. Yet Syria could also transform its nightmare into a nascent and inclusive state that reflects the diversity of its mosaic of religious sects and ethnic groups.
Either way, the fall of Mr. al-Assad and the emergence of a new Syria will unleash new power dynamics across the region, creating winners and losers who will define the contours of the emerging order in the Middle East.
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