Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s emboldened leader, is likely watching the events in South Korea closely and may use the turmoil to his benefit.
“We know that North Korea likes to lampoon South Korea’s democratic system whenever there is tumult in Seoul,” Edward Howell, a lecturer in politics at the University of Oxford to CNN.
“We should not be surprised if Pyongyang exploits the domestic crisis in South Korea to its advantage, either rhetorically or otherwise,” he added.
It comes after South Korea, long one of the US’ most important Asian allies, was tipped into political chaos on Tuesday when its president, Yoon Suk Yeol, declared martial law.
Yoon reversed course six hours later after lawmakers blocked the declaration. Calls for the president’s resignation are now growing.
All six opposition parties filed an impeachment motion on Wednesday, with a vote set for Friday or Saturday, according to the Yonhap news agency.
Yoon said the declaration was necessary to prevent subversion by North Korea, South Korea’s longtime enemy, but it’s likely he was seeking to quash domestic opposition and bolster his power.
How North Korea may respond
North Korea may decide it’s “a great time to take advantage of this weakness to deal another blow to him through some type of provocation,” Sydney Seiler, who until last year was the national intelligence officer for North Korea on the US National Intelligence Council, told VOA.
The unrest comes at a time of heightened tensions in East Asia.
South Korea has long been backed by the US, which has 30,000 troops stationed in the republic, in its decadeslong frozen war with North Korea.
But North Korea, fuelled by Russian money and goods after backing the Kremlin’s Ukraine invasion, is becoming more assertive and more aggressive.
It’s escalating its threats toward South Korea, while ally China menaces US ally Taiwan with invasion.
Meanwhile, the US is seeking to bolster its democratic allies in the region to deter aggression by the axis of authoritarian states. It was reportedly caught off guard by Yoon’s declaration on Tuesday but sought to project unwavering support for South Korean security as the turmoil unfolded.
US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell on Tuesday said the US commitment to South Korean security remained “ironclad.”
“We’re watching the recent developments in the ROK [Republic of Korea] with grave concern,” Campbell said. “We’re seeking to engage our ROK counterparts at every level both here and in Seoul.”
Kim could use the crisis to intimidate and undermine its neighbor, and drive a wedge between South Korea and the US, say analysts.
Seiler told VOA that Kim “may see President [Yoon]’s actions as straining that relationship.”
It could also take the form of propaganda designed to erode trust in democracy and government stability in South Korea.
US support may act as a deterrent
Not everyone agrees that there will be much action from North Korea, however. For one thing, US support for South Korea may act as a significant deterrent.
“North Korea is very likely to seek to capitalize politically. But the South Korea-US alliance is robust, with the two main political parties and 90% of South Koreans supporting it,” Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Head of Department of European and International Studies at SOAS, told Business Insider.
David Welch, University Research Chair and Professor of Political Science, University of Waterloo, told Newsweek that Kim is likely “rubbing his hands with glee” but said he was not in a good position to respond.
“I would expect some rhetorical gloating about the superiority of North Korea’s political system, but not much else,” he said.
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